Member Info for HarChris

Certainly agree with you PI, at least broadly speaking. I haven't done enough research recently to know who out of the others will cope okay if bitcoin is still around this level post-halving but it's short term liquidity that will be king in that situation (cash + HODL). Medium term those with low debt will continue grinding through but they'll struggle.

It's another reason why buying into miners with a big HODL is important, that figure is likely going to increase whilst the miners that have no HODL but are producing will see their output halve.

I think that's why Riot is still more or less top of the tree despite worsening mining results. They've got that combination of significant HODL, healthy cash balance and fairly low debt (net cash position), consistently high income from power credits and still mine a reasonable amount (should start seeing improvements as Building G comes back online). That combination brings with it less risk and means they will cope with whatever the landscape throws at them.

What makes you say that? The Shanta timeline actually showed WK drilling and NLGM drilling updates before July was out so certainly no August deadline to keep to... as for H1 results isn't the deadline for that end of September?

In essence we should realistically get three updates within four to five weeks and an extra update if you include announcement of new CEO.

Yes and if you go to page 33 and look at the small print it states ncyt have a 69% chance of winning the dispute outright, 20% chance that all parties kiss, make up and walk away hand in hand and 11% chance of all out loss with three burly bailiffs ready and waiting at ncyt HQ.

Hopefully that’ll help with your investment decision going forward Mr Optimistic.

Ha well that'll be the entire industry not just graphite production but already we should be looking at a jump in revenue in FY 2024 of ~ $16m from $2.9m in FY2023 - most would call that phenomenal growth.

It’ll take time ValJu. The acquisition of Yourgene and hence the proof that the cash pile wasn’t ringfenced at least pulled the share price up from the 40p range to what now will likely be a floor around 70p. Fairly paltry sure but given revenue figures have worsened at least we’ve seen some SP progress.

To see further leg ups to a pound, to £1.50 etc is going to take a combination of (at least) a neutral result from the dispute so the biggest risk is behind us plus operational progress organically / synergistically with Yourgene acquisition.

If all goes well we’ll get there but more patience is needed :/

“Graphite is a $23-billion industry and represents one of the biggest opportunities in the huge investment arena of batteries, the backbone of an everything-electric future. In less than a decade, graphite will be worth an estimated $43 billion. “

Ambitious Shishir and TGR aiming to be producing 8% of that future global natural graphite demand by the end of the decade…

Don't get me wrong Abouttime it's possible that a bitcoin bull run starts in September/October and the Argo share price goes to 20p, 30p, even higher but it's high risk and most of us here probably agree not worth risking an awful lot of capital on it when you will see even better upside from US listed miners that haven't any chance of going bankrupt in October/November/December/early 2024 and won't need to immediately attempt a huge placing to ensure survival.

To add to Argo's woes bitcoin is down ~12% since they were forced into the placing and difficulty is up ~6.5%.

Haha that would do it but I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks a positive resolution is going to send the share price anywhere close to £1.20 by itself. But if it does or rises substantially (I did say almost certainly not, not certainly not) then 37.5p average would still be a possibility.

I'm confident a JR win will have an extremely positive effect on the share price though.

Yet at 2.5p on the 16th December Argo still had Helios. They sold it for $65m a week or so later, took on another $35m collaterised loan and yet still after this 'transformational' $100m refinancing they had to go back to the market in July for more cash.

£5.75m gross is simply not going to cut it and could well be game over rather than another equity raise next. Can't help but feel those topping up just don't understand this.

That means the 90 trading days starts right about now... yes almost certainly not to average 37.5p from here to the end of the year in that case.

Fair enough, that does make it less likely but bear in mind 90 days prior to Dec 31st in fact starts on the 1st Oct, not 1st Sept...

No chance of 37.5p without another FSS-style contract? Don't agree at all.

Currently what's hugely dragging down the share price is the debt and the potential of it becoming a burden. Winning the JR and announcing either a large sale of IM or a farm out that brings in X amount to start reducing the debt would minimise the potential downside risk here enormously and have the market shifting its attention from debt concerns to future revenues and cash flows.

I think if we see a positive outcome on Thursday coupled with signing the £60,-£70m major vessel refurbishment contract and perhaps another a similar size then we could well see the share price at 40p+ by the end of the year.

Lots of ifs though.

Yes $90m debt isn't ideal but when you consider the cost to pre producers of reaching ~4500mtV, owning a big stake of the second biggest VRFB manufacturer ex China and a fully built and soon to be operational electrolyte plant (55% owned) you start to realise the fundamentals aren't all that bad with one short period of higher vanadium prices (albeit we've been waiting a little while now) capable of instantly reducing it to a much more manageable level.

I'll repeat what I said before...

No, no trading this far out tells you anything about the weight anyone's placing on the outcome, it is simply an attempt to drive thinking one way or the other, i.e share price didn't react following the rns so traders see an opportunity to short and have others like you thinking the 'market' expects Harl to lose the JR.

Watch the price action on Tues/Wed for some clues as to which way HNW individuals are leaning, not this week. A lot can change in the blink of an eye in a small cap stock like this on AIM.

I'm not surprised, they managed to get a placing away at 10p so there is still some appetite for taking on the risk here and betting on a near term bull run, even if it's far diminished compared with what it was a year or so ago.

I'll stick with my view from two and a half weeks ago when the share price was just shy of 11p:

''No short term predictions on ARB as I obviously have no idea where BTC goes next, all i'm predicting is a share price implosion (2p or less) by around October time if bitcoin/hash rate haven't moved in Argo's favour margin-wise.''

So far the bitcoin/hash rate has moved very much against Argo since the above comment.

Yes Gaisan it tells you that investors on the sidelines are not yet convinced that TGR are out of the woods in terms of hiccups re the ramping up of operations / given the tight cash balance and market backdrop and probably feel it's better to get back in when improvements are seen in black and white.

It's a choice of taking on slightly more risk for far greater rewards at this point in time. For some that's appealing for others it isn't. It doesn't though suggest something untoward behind the scenes as is the narrative that many on here and on twitter are attempting to create.

Oh come on kkkrrr be fair, if it's not reposted daily then there's a chance someone ends up missing what top fund manager extraodinaire Ed Dowd has to say. Wouldn't that be a travesty?!

Couldn't disagree with Genghis more. IF the market had turned sour a year or so earlier then that would be completely fair and it's the situation most pre-producers are now faced with but TGR have already done the hard graft last year, they've already raised with the share price higher (90p, 45p, 52.6p, 35p) to get to the point where they can now stand on their own two feet.

Sure liquidity is still somewhat of an issue hence the need to go the prepayment route but they'll be nearing critical mass now/ cash flow positive and TGR managed to continue their ramp up this year with just 290k cash at the end of March.

If they can handle the ramp up with just 2000tpa production and low graphite prices then they'll be throwing off cash soon at 6000+ tpa, especially as the graphite price recovers. And with no debt on the balance sheet and sizeable operations avoiding the equity route to fund the next stages of expansion should be easily achievable over the next six months or so.