Member Info for HarChris

My personal opinion is that the recent placing was the last they'll be able to pull off at a reasonable price this side of a bull market. You can't just keep raising to keep the lights on when the investment case is as non existent as it is (halving approaching, machines needing to be replaced in a couple of years and collaterized against a third party debt, no other assets remaining).

And if they were forced into another they'll end up giving away ~30% of the company to a couple of investors at something like 2.5p a share.

I'm fully aware of the breakdown that got us to $36/kg break even that started with cash costs of $26.6/kgV and rose by $10 for depreciation, interest on debt, admin expenses, sustaining capex etc etc

And because of the failure to meet the production targets costs have increased albeit only slightly because a weaker rand will have been factored in.

My point still stands, if Craig achieves what Fortune set out to then we should be looking at something like $22/kgV cash costs and around $32/kgV break even and that goes lower if we see medium term hedging around this exchange rate.

I'm not denying there is opportunity in capturing stranded energy but who really thinks for a second Argo is actually going to go down this route or allocate any capital to it when they so desperately need every penny they have to prolong their survival?! It's just something they had to include in the rationale so as to attempt to build some sort of growth narrative.

This year if Fortune had delivered the production guidance they set out to achieve which included the huge electricity hikes in SA we'd have seen a break even price of ~$36/kgV at 16.6Rand. If Craig can get a handle on Vanchem and Vametco and have them both operating at their potential we'll be looking at more like $32/kgV with a weak rand and well below $30/kgV if he decides to hedge at 19Rand.

Pull that off and success here is inevitable.

I believe Myles' influence increased massively in 2020/2021 when tons of the stocks he was involved with ballooned (think synairgen, avacta, novacyt, mkango) but in more recent times it's been the polar opposite (think bidstack, amte, angle, s4 capital, audioboom, harvest minerals, the list goes on).

Bull markets make traders look like gods and bear markets make them look like amateurs!

Let me get this straight... the net assets as of 31st Dec are $81.52m. The business will have generated tons of profit since at an average gold price through 2023 of more than $1900/Oz, there is minimal debt on the books, the last placing was at 75p with $17.5m raised and the current share price/mcap is 21p/ $20.5m ?

My word is the uncertainty over Coringa (in which a positive solution appears to have been found) offered up an opportunity!

Haha yeah I doubted the share register was completely up-to-date on google finance but still found it interesting that the two were so very evenly matched valuation-wise as for their mcaps to be ostensibly identical...

As for Argo it's been about a month since the placing. Who else is excited to hear how the evaluation re 'power generators to help capture the full economic value of their stranded or underutilized energy' is going? Could be a gamechanger!

95% down on their investment here? I would confidently say it's 100% rounded to the nearest one percent.

Great post but let's not even pretend to struggle to understand what this newly formed group's intentions are - they're here because they smelt blood following the suspension and Q1 production miss. Very little cash was seen on the balance sheet as of 31st March, they sensed a placing coming and they knew just how painful that would be in this market and wanted it as discounted as possible.

They'll get quieter in the weeks ahead as they accept that they aren't getting in any lower with some of them probably buying in and others looking elsewhere for their next target to bash.

On a serious note what I'd like to see here is the SHG share price stay robust around 9.5p during this quiet period whilst gold retraces slightly. That would be a firm base to springboard from once we enter more of a news rich-period from September onwards with gold hopefully pushing back towards $2K/oz alongside.

The gang of five tried to single-handedly manipulate the gold price to rise but failed this time around sadly. Today they try again.

Haha that made me laugh eatstocks

'Quelle surprise. Riot SP finally sinks below Mara... who would have thunk it.'

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Anyone noticed the mcaps of these two? At least going by google finance they are both exactly $2.61B as of right now!

You accuse shareholders of ignorance and being too soft on the management but have absolutely no knowledge of what conversations are being had with management. I messaged Shishir recently and did not hold back on anything and was delighted with the responses I got. I am sure this is the case with others like Andii and Glengarth whom you've addressed personally. We ask pressing questions privately and if we're happy we then continue to hold/buy and promote publicly rather than knocking the company at every turn and stating opinion as fact (just as you claimed that the market is closed to TGR right now due to trust and therefore HAD to go the prepayment route).

The share price is where it is for a number of reasons which include missed targets and the risks that come with liquidity constraints in such a landscape as we are seeing currently as well as graphite itself being out of the limelight. There's no getting away from the fact that this is a crucial moment for the company and that they need to deliver from this point forward with positive commentary and growth forecasts no longer enough to entice new investment but management know this and those of us still holding trust the company to do exactly that.

Get through this tough period and TGR proves how capable they are at growing production with minimal resources and that will lead the market once again to look towards the potential that the Suni acquisition/Mozambique opens up over the next 12-18 months.

Good article this but should note that it says debt is just $8.7m, this isn't right. Net debt is $8.7m, actual debt will be over $30m. I'm sure a portion of that will be paid down each quarter though now decreasing interest payments over time, as stated in the text.

This is a very easy hold. It's impossible to get timings right with AIM shares but essentially buying/holding at this price is simply a bet on Gold averaging at least $1800/oz over the next twelve months and Shanta delivering on their targets. If so at some point we will catch a break and see a much higher share price + increased dividend.

And if gold happens to reach new ATHs which is a very real possibility in addition to further company progress (doubling of production at Singida for example + more positive WK drilling results) then that higher share price will end up 20p+.

You seem to have a good grasp of what's going on with BMN except this dilution that confuses you, yes the dilution that seems to make no sense to you so any insight regarding the dilution and dilution alone would be helpful i'm sure.

There's another SB called SnakesandBadgers on here that's invested in similar companies to what you're interested so maybe reach out to him?

when you compare to gold miners you see that there is still enormous sentiment attached to bitcoin related companies. for example pretty much every gold miner is well in profitable territory right now, all of the strongest miners are expanding on cash flows alone (no dilution), they don't have to fully replace their ****nal every four to five years (life of mine does vary but almost always well beyond 5 years) and gold doesn't have to double in price every four years for margins to stay the same.

yet volumes and upwards sentiment moves remain so so much stronger for loss making bitcoin makers. i wish i gave up on fundamentals !

Yeah of course. I have covid quite badly again so that’s my excuse ha

Looking back over the past three years or so putting trading aside there’s money to be made as long as you don’t hold for too long in the bull run. Buy in a bear market or in the earlier days of the bull and you’ll probably make money long term but you don’t want to be the one funding the company at the top.

Easier said than done I know and now there’s question marks over whether we’ll ever see the same wild hype again + the halving closing in. Interesting what happens at the very least!

Thanks, so in essence what you're describing is EBDA although that's not a common metric and as you say Hexam depreciation comparisons can be misleading in this industry.

The interesting thing with something as hyped and as volatile as bitcoin is that typical profitability isn't all that important if you get your timing right with financing. Just look at Microstrategy... since August 2020 when they became a defacto bitcoin holding company their software business has been struggling and they are only at about break even on bitcoin purchases and yet the share price is about 160%... why? Because they bought a lot of that overpriced bitcoin with overpriced shares and hence it was actually cheaper in a sense buying bitcoin around ~$60k than it is today at ~$30k with the share price far more than 50% down from the peak.