Member Info for HarChris

Although very early days so far Craig seems like a breath of fresh air and exactly what is needed at this time.

All eyes on the Orion deal finalising and then we have a bit of breathing space for Craig to get operations up to the level that's been targeted for some time and for the vanadium market to play out as many of us expect.

Exactly. Average P/E ratios may come down slightly during a recession across the stock market as a whole but Shanta is already looking at a forward P/E FAR below the average - let's assume gold stays where it is for the rest of the year we'll be looking at something like:

EBITDA - $70m

Net profit - $30m ?

That's a P/E of just 4.5, really quite staggering for a cash cow with further significant growth opportunities and very modest debt.

And obviously that was meant to say per quarter*

An awful lot to look forward to for the rest of 2023 with catalysts that should be very close now.

For those supposedly concerned about the cash position remember this:

TGR had just £290K in cash at year end as we learnt last week but that was the 31st March. What we know for certain is well over 4 months have passed and there has been no cash call, no refinancing, which means the production ramp up is happening at a cash positive level.

This is good news. Yes more clarity is needed in due course, yes we all want to see that 80% of capacity / 6100+t per month reached as soon as possible but the potential here is huge and TGR are still valued lower than most pre-producers...

'ARB has turned blue. Where is HC when you need him?'

I'm here and have been all day commenting! No short term predictions on ARB as I obviously have no idea where BTC goes next, all i'm predicting is a share price implosion (2p or less) by around October time if bitcoin/hash rate haven't moved in Argo's favour margin-wise.

Yeah incredibly unlucky, I thought of you as I checked in on the Riot price today!

I'd argue we're finally at the point where if Argo run out of cash once again / need short term financing they are up shi* creek. Why? Well back end of last year when they were having liquidity issues there was a) new machines to sell and b) Helios. Combined that brought in over $110m ($65m Helios + $35m loan with Galaxy + machine sales).

That huge sum of money was not enough to see Argo through even 12 months... fast forward 7 or so months and the most they could raise was £5.75m/$7.3m. This was also off the back of a rally in BTC and some renewed hope in a bull run with bitcoin above $30k.

If we do get to mid-late Q4 and we're still not seeing a bull run under what rationale can Argo go back to the market cap in hand? It's not realistic without a deep, deep discount and hence we're very much in last chance saloon territory now.

It was not signed off and released within the legally required timeframe of four months post year end hence the shares had to be suspended... are you refuting that?

Well it evidently *was* a regulatory audit issue that caused the suspension in the first place... the reason that the suspension is yet to be lifted is less known though and leads me to think that there is additional news they are pushing to release alongside.

Thanks both of you, I must have missed that.

Why have some of you pencilled in September for the JR outcome? Unless I've missed some info along the way I thought we were always looking at roughly 8-12 weeks from early May which means anytime from early July onwards, hence very much imminent now...

'In Q4-2019 Vametco alone produced more Vanadium (880mtV) than Vametco and Vanchem combined today (840mtV).'

__________________________

Even if that quarter was a bit of an anomaly it's not a pretty stat... however what about looking at it another way? Production in Q4 2019 was roughly the same as production in Q2 2023 yet the share price was about 950% higher.

I don't think we can say for sure that Argo is burning cash Suthy. It would imagine that the recent placing was to pay down debt that was due in the coming months which should also slightly reduce monthly outgoings. Looking at the previously quarterly a reasonable guess would be Argo at / just below cash breakeven currently with BTC at $29k and total hash rate being where it is.

So in terms of when they need refinancing again it would depend on (i) when the next principal debt repayments are due and (ii) where BTC / hash goes from here, whilst also bearing in mind that they are probably just under cash breakeven currently so likely seeing modest cash burn each month.

And of course in just 8 months with the halving BTC will need to be around $59K to continue operating around B/E level, more of the debt will need to be paid off by then and on top machines will continue losing efficiency as time goes on before eventually needing replacing.

Stop being negative re QBT clsk… they’re a billion quid business in the making!

There is only one thing left that can potentially save Argo and that's a sudden and sustained rally in bitcoin that leads to a far higher share price followed by a successfully executed placing at something like 25p / £30m.

There are a lot of factors that need to go Argo's way for that to happen though, not impossible but fairly unlikely.

https://*************************/status/1687347172784943104

https://www.***************************/tirupati-graphite-a-very-eventful-and-successful-year-video/4121124649

a must listen.

It's quite amazing really. Argo does a placing and because all it does is wipe off 8% of the debt its back to where they were before... bumbling along staring at the bank balance and the bitcoin price and praying the latter balloons before they run out of the former.

The interims around late September will be informative.

That's certainly the case Fara but it does look like we're going to see a favourable dollar/rand rate for some time, so if Craig can get costs under control we'll see even greater margins due to the weak Rand.

Is this now for TGR to request the lifting of suspension? Perhaps there's another update to come first?