Member Info for HarChris

Skeletor imo too much expectation was built in to Q1 and the company didn't deliver. Let's be honest and frank about that.

They did however give their reasons for the lower than expected production and immediately addressed the working capital bottleneck as well as Shishir acknowledging that realistic and achievable targets need to be set and met going forward.

A strong Q2 will at the very least be the first steps in rebuilding sentiment and interest with any increase in graphite prices alongside accelerating the recovery. Already seeing signs of the latter.

I know we're facing a different economic landscape right now but the significance of the FSS win is totally being overlooked. It's not just £750m of work but the additional upskilling, the tech transfer and the infrastructure upgrades combined that makes it totally transformational.

We're now almost a year closer to full scale fabrication commencing from when the contract was first announced.

Damn right jfk9, they haven’t even managed a £billion revenue in orders yet unless the FSS comes in at the higher end - total vanity project!

The article and news isn't recent, in fact it's 20 months old...

That's not to say anything's changed in that time, the demand profile for graphite remains highly favourable. TGR has had to weather a number of storms (figuratively and literally) but they're set to increase production ~ 5X since Jan 2022 with the share price 0.25% of what it was...

If you felt the ncyt burn rate might jump to £60m+ as implied by your question then you’d have absolutely no interest whatsoever in this company.

Your act is wearing thin.

Yes

It's far too soon to make any conclusions re IM/ being 'shovel ready', it's not even been one week yet since the JR result.

Another two or three weeks without any sort of update then sure, that would be grounds for speculation but for now there's every reason to believe talks are happening behind the scenes... in fact knowing how JW operates i'd hazard a guess that we'd have got an RNS by now if there *wasn't* negotiations going on behind the scenes, to keep interest an sentiment up. I take the lack of news as a positive in this instance although the sooner we get something concrete the better !

Interims before the month is out, Q3 end of October, Orion deal completion imminently.

Anyone saying 'jam tomorrow' is ignoring the fact that we already know what some of that jam consists of... one of the biggest contracts in AIM history. Revenue roughly 5 times 2022's is already secured yearly from 2025 onwards.

Certainly seems like no one is buying the sort of IM price tag that's being spouted regularly on here - hopefully get some meat on the bones soon after the short and clinical rns on Thursday.

Kaeren I would think NCYT are now in a closed period until after the interims are published (before September is out).

After that directors will be able to buy.

Q2 proved just how valuable the weak rand has been this year to Bushveld. We got downgrades for both production and cash costs yet the former was a downgrade of 12.6% and the latter not even 1% and so BMN are not that far off being profitable in 2023.

If we're looking at this sort of dollar/zar rate long into the future then any operational improvements achieved by Craig will see profits balloon.

You really pushed the argument from ~9.45p that this was going to drop to 9p Noel. You knew no more than anybody else on the near term direction and even with barely anyone responding to you you kept repeating the message.

If you're genuine and just truly believed it then perhaps it's time for a bit of reflection?

Certainly a perfect storm of factors coming to a head here, totally unsurprising to see the share price really kick on today.

???

You're not filtered obviously or I wouldn't have seen your post to reply to.

I have the person you're referring to filtered from a long time ago due to abuse on another BB. Are you referring to me or the more erudite Chris (chrisatrdg)?!

I have a masters degree in Financial Mathematics, not that it makes me any better than those that chose a non-university path!

The week is up so let's see who out of those that guessed came out on top :

roly12 - 19.75p

bubble2021 - 27.5p

consuela - 9p

shivest - 18.5p

juyamah - 17.4p

... and the winner is juyamah.

As far as I can tell Stokey you are either solely invested in Harl or it's your main investment. For that reason you are a million times more clued up on the company than someone like myself who invests across many stocks and tends to take a big picture view rather than digging deeper into the detail and so in almost every department what you have to say regarding Harl should be given far, far more weight than anything I have to say... apart from the trading side.

I said what I said about the debt because 'debt' became a dirty word on AIM just before the FSS contract landed, following the clear apparent trajectory in US interest rates (~July 2022). We almost instantly started seeing the value of small caps with relatively high debt rapidly collapse. This was true of Harl which saw its share price fall from a high of about 22.5p in April to just 5.5p by October. We then of course got the FSS news and that transformed the outlook but any rise was always tempered because of this new anti debt landscape, so much so that a £700m-£800m contract win left Harl with a lower valuation than it had prior to the sell off starting.

You might not think so but the majority of us would agree that the debt is the biggest thing putting new investors off. So far all the market has to go on is the very rushed out RNS on Thursday but once chatter begins about a possible IM sale / farm out options and how that substantially reduces (or even eliminates) the debt on the books then that'll highly likely be the big catalyst we've been waiting for.

And once again re the current share price, let's wait until the company releases more news re IM over the coming weeks before coming to any conclusions as to its impact.

Wrong in what way? I’ve continually said pre and post IM news that we should wait at least five trading but realistically more like ten to see what short term impact it has on the share price, not one or two.

You’re the one being righteous here.

Whilst a fair and reasonable opinion to hold re Hebridean9's post what it ignores is just how much the debt is weighing down the share price currently. Forget AIM machiavellianism, forget the many other possible reasons why the share price is where it is, number one without a shadow of a doubt is the debt risk in what is a high debt environment. Blast that debt away with a sale of IM and the FSS and every contract to come will start being priced in for where it can take Harl with any chance of serious medium financial difficulties eliminated.

It is somewhat irrelevant that Harl won't be able to stump up the development capex.