Member Info for HarChris

Whilst many would want to hold on for more an offer of 20p would be accepted.

There's an element of the ETF approval being priced in though, if it's rejected again they'll be further downside instead.

Apologies for the difficult to read spacing, that's a formatting issue that I keep having.

There's also the Orion CLN of $13.5m at a conversion price of 8p... there's been no discussion of this whatsoever recently as far as I'm aware but I guess technically those terms could be changed too.

It does because Orion are taking $4.5m worth and SPR $12.5m, that ratio is already agreed.

o Conversion of c. US$4.5 million of existing convertible loan note into shares at 6p per share

THEN

§ An equity investment by Southern Point Resources of ~US$12.5 million into the Company, at the same equity price as Orion Mine Finance ("Orion").

o The number of shares to be subscribed for shall not be more than 29.9% of Bushveld ordinary shares of 1 pence each in issue.

In your example you've just made up random amounts!

There isn't even a futures market for vanadium... is it because it's relatively speaking a pretty niche metal? 120000T demand globally is nothing when you compare to the billions of tonnes for the likes of crude steel and oil.

Yea the basket sizes are very different. TGR is targeting US$910 - US$935, sure it might be prudent to use something like $850 but $600? No way.

Prices have not fallen that much since that sales price target for the year was announced and I don’t think the company have rowed back on it.

I'm sure there can be small adjustments made over time but if the vast majority of your long term clients are in Europe i'm not convinced you can just 'switch' to selling 5000mtV a year to new clients. Either way it would leave a huge supply gap in Europe which would create a sharp rebound in price, one would think.

Largo made a net loss in Q1 with their average selling price 65% higher than it is today - since they've continued to struggle operationally and V has fallen off a cliff... It won't be long til something gives.

It's worse than that, no mention of voluntary pause so the operational issues are separate, they are operating at max capacity but just seeing production fall year on year... production was even lower in Q1 when V was high.

The $64m cash they had as of June 30th is all that's keeping that valuation afloat but would imagine that's already halved by now - will see when the financials are released next month or the announcement that they are halting production, whatever comes first.

The reason I share this is because Largo supplies roughly 30% of global European vanadium demand, with stockpiles already depleted if they end up halting production we will see a supply shock in Europe.

Shocking results. Production for the quarter just 2163t v205 = ~1190mtV equivalent, sales of 2385t v205 will be the last of the stockpile sold. Guidance 'unchanged' but that's because they already brought their target down from 11000t-12000t to the wide range of 9000t-11000t. After these results only just going to reach that 9000t v205 figure which is the equivalent of ~4950mtV. For context in 2020 they produced 11825t v205, 10319t v205 in 2021 and 10436t v205 in 2022. Talk about going backwards.

Press release gave as minimal info so not much analysis that can be done til the full release next month but looking at the v price in Europe I would expect cash burn to have risen inexorably with the next step either being a placing to shore up the balance sheet or a halting of production - £160m mcap for group production just minimally greater than Bushveld's... further fall incoming.

The stage is certainly set for an explosive recovery but it will require a solid operational update that confirms all is back on track. In the meantime a slow and steady rise is just what the doctor ordered.

Same goes to you. Whilst what I said still holds true for management payout (if not shares then much needed cash at this time would be given to directors) I fully understand your frustration and personal gripe over this issue. Nobody likes to see management enriching themselves / benefiting from the share price depreciation (as they accumulate more shares than they would otherwise) that they’ve overseen when you as a shareholder are seeing nothing in return or can’t afford to risk more of your own money. And in this case it seems like they are being rewarded for nothing.

Let’s hope this turns around and all can be (somewhat) forgiven 👍

Much simpler than that, what some have been doing is looking at the cash Yourgene had post £6.4m placing, looking at how long it took for that cash to dwindle towards zero and from that extrapolating a cash burn rate.

What I’m saying is that the cash burn figure some are coming up with exaggerated for the reasons I shared in my last post meaning that YG as part of the novacyt group will be seeing a much more modest cash burn right off the bat before management even get to work.

Indebted companies issue shares, that’s a simple fact. Further back there was more dilution because of placings, if DKL had instead chosen to take on more debt through loans back then they would have folded by now, your shares would be worth zero … actually I’ll go a step further. The big problem is they’d didn’t raise enough in the last placing at 5p a share, if they had doubled that issue and raised £6m they’d be in a far healthier place right now.

My choice of Jan 2022 was to show that in recent times dilution has slowed dramatically which is a good thing as the share price has sunk to these lows. What we need to see now is cash generation and profit and with it a big move north in the share price… if that were to happen then the ‘dishing out of shares’ here and there would create even less dilution because it would require far fewer shares to cover the same payouts.

You’re frustrated but blaming it on dilution is (and I’m repeating myself) nonsense. The share price is where it is because of poor operational performance, turn that around and return to profitability and the share price will take care of itself.

I see the palm oil price has just breached 3800…we need more of that and for the cashew operation to be sorted asap - then all of a sudden those broker targets come back into focus.

Add in the 3rd October Andii to those numbers, the rns informed us on the 3rd Oct that BAT had 1618944 shares left as of the 2nd Oct...

Looks like they'll be no obstacle to a strong rise following a positive operational update this month.

There are a few factors that make the '£7m loss' as you call it less applicable to NCYT.

First and foremost is their debt.. a good chunk of that spending will have gone towards debt repayments and possibly some debt maturity falling within that time period. With novacyt having paid off all debt as part of this deal the burn rate immediately falls.

Secondly part of the rationale for Yourgene's placing was to 'facilitate further restructuring of the Group's cost base' - this sort of thing requires upfront costs to be sunk before cost benefits are borne out.

Then you add the cost benefits that merging with novacyt will immediately bring and it doesn't take much to see yourgene flip from cash burning to profitable.

What in god's name are you talking about? 'Is it Realistically visible to hope that we can cut costs right down to zero ?'

How does one cut costs to zero? Do you expect yourgene to run their business without paying for raw materials, for staff, for anything whatsoever?

What you must mean is can the £7m loss be overturned so that cash burn is either reduced or eliminated? Well it's implied within the rationale for the acquisition that Yourgene can be transformed into a profitable business so yes we would all expect to see cash being generated rather than depleted from this purchase in the years to come. Whether the new combined management team are able to successfully achieve that will only be known with time but it's evidently realistic, yes.

I was one of those people who challenged you on this 'ongoing dilution' narrative because it's nonsense, although I don't think I described it as deramping, just silly.

Going back to January 2022 I see there were 537,098,441 shares in issue.

Today, 21 months later, there are 559,404,153 shares in issue.

So in 21 months shareholders have been diluted 4%... you will struggle to find many, if any, AIM companies that have diluted less than that over the same period.

This is not the reason the share price is where it is, not even a minor factor.

Yeah but also some people see more value in spending their time researching the company as thoroughly as they can and if they believe for example Avacta to be their nest egg, their retirement, then the time consumed and risk involved in exiting and re-entering over and over for tiny gains, even if cumulatively significant, isn't worthwhile.

And I suppose if those people are in the majority then they will find it tedious to hear about your buying and selling... there are telegram groups dedicated to that very thing which then leaves this sort of space free to discuss actual company activity.

It depends if you are doing that sort of trading with your entire holding or just a portion of it Wyn, if just a portion then really you're gaining 10% of say 10% which is just 1% so not half as impressive or as worthwhile as it first sounds. Also there's many on here with a very large holding and so constantly closing positions and re-opening is not practical even if it is for you and what sounds like your much more modest holding.