Member Info for HarChris

I don't think there's much chance of corporate action the other way til the dispute is resolved.

Well we were informed that all three drilling results should be released before the next quarterly update, in the order of WK, NLGM, Singida... so going by that we should expect West Kenya's fairly soon.

It's what they did in both the cases with Abingdon and Nanopore so there's certainly a precedent there.

I am simply saying that Novacyt has more to lose. The decision could decide the future fate of Novacyt as a going concern, the DHSC continues as normal whatever the outcome. In that sense one can afford to lose and the other can't.

It's possible that the reputational damage would be worse for the DHSC if they go to court and lose in full so in that sense there might be an incentive for them to back down in a way that allows them to sweep the whole saga under the carpet and keep the compensation paid to NCYT to a minimum - the benefit to ncyt would be a guaranteed positive outcome and an immediate end to the uncertainty. So a settlement (in Novacyt's favour) is still the outcome I think most likely.

You keep repeating this re cash but I think it's crystal clear what the situation.

Cash has been a constraint of late which has been well documented and something we're all fully aware of. We were informed that the short term cash problem was resolved with the prepayment in August. I am sure the low Q2 figure means cash is currently low but Shishir quite clearly stated in the most recent interview that the company's current operations can be managed with current resources now that they're seeing a step-change in production run rate to 3750Tpq... no funding needed. He then went on to discuss what a future debt package will be used for - firstly, new pre-concentrate units are needed to improve the head grade and push production beyond what looks like a limit of ~20KTpa tops at Madagascar but he also said these are not very capital intensive so only a fraction of future capex would be directed that way, the rest is for much larger expansion plans - most notably towards bringing operations at Mozambique online.

It's perfectly reasonable to choose the risk averse path, to wait for all funding to be secured and on terms that you're happy with but going that route will mean buying in at 50p+ if at all. For the rest of us news such as China and progress towards a debt deal *is* meaningful and significant down at this share price level. With corporate governance being an issue previously and with a lack of experience at CFO, seeing a NED appointment like we have today *is* meaningful. There is higher risk down here but obviously far, far higher reward than you'd be able to see with your approach so belittling and dismissing the improved sentiment this week doesn't hold any weight as far as i'm concerned even if none of this news is enough to tempt you to buy.

Whilst evidently no expert in Yourgene, from where I'm standing it looked like Yourgene, under Lyn Rees, were rather close to achieving success and in part was a casualty of the severe downturn in the small cap markets. I remember seeing that proposed capital raise at Yourgene and it confirming to me just how rotten the markets had become, that a company I was following that appeared to be making progress was forced to offer such a deep discount to get that raise away - wasn't the share price around 2p prior to the placing being announced at 0.3p? In different circumstances I'm sure they'd have pulled off three times the funding at 5 times the price and they wouldn't have been swallowed up in the way they recently have.

Yourgene never made the most of the larger placing in 2020 partly due to failing to enjoy the covid spoils but this is a very different situation now with significant cash at their disposal, and hopefully lessons learnt, to successfully enact their strategy. Reasons to be optimistic.

Whilst I doubt it'll happen wouldn't the meeting being outside of LSE trading hours allow for material news to be shared in the meeting, as long as an RNS then followed before market opening tomorrow?

As someone that continually informed us that you don’t hold and have ‘dodged a bullet’ it’s not a huge surprise that you aren’t gushing at the improving picture and sentiment now that the share price has recovered more than 75%

TGR management are really getting their house in order right now. Overcoming the working capital constraints, successfully ramping up production, progressing with delivering the long awaited debt package, tightening up corporate governance.

Feels like it's all coming together now just at the right time.

That sounds extremely positive GL...

I'm not in a particular hurry to see novacyt go back on the m&a hunt, if they can start creating meaningful revenue from their own portfolio of products and successfully oversee the much anticipated growth at Yourgene then there's significant potential before the management go looking for further bolt-on acquisitions.

The upcoming January update is the first one in a while that I've actually got some hope for.

Ha no chance of buying Oxford Biodynamics. Companies like Abingdon would be a potential fit as they've launched a saliva pregnancy test that's now in Tesco and Superdrug and will probably start facing working capital constraints too but I'd imagine most targets would be small privately listed companies along the lines of the IT IS acquisition.

There might be some media attention if the DHSC were to come out on top as the government might weaponise it to try to claim that they take taxpayers money seriously, ignoring the fact that whatever compensation won would be a drop in the ocean compared to the billions wasted on below par Chinese kits and PPE. But in terms of neither side affording to lose... it's life and death for NCYT whereas for the government it'll simply be coughing up for what they should have paid for in 2021 from the £190B budget that they have yearly .

Neither side can afford to lose? Really? If the DHSC lose it will barely get any media attention and that'll be that. When Oxford Nanopore won their dispute against the government last year and received £50m I think the Times were the only paper to pick it up and even then it was the shortest of articles.

There were no quarterlies last year because the sales pipeline wasn't sufficiently developed enough. We are now in a different place and after disappointing recently and having to downgrade short term targets it would make no sense to hold back strong Q3 numbers.

I hope we get a update this week or next but I accept it's not a guarantee.

No they didn't, they gave a vague passing comment on July and August numbers but that's far from a full comprehensive quarterly update.

Great questions Kaeren as always.

The truth is that this management team have been a total basket case but that windfall in 2020 has given them nine lives, four or five already used up with still a few left to make something of this. I continue to hold and add because I feel they must surely be learning from their mistakes by now but maybe a bit more cynicism would serve me better!

I can't believe I'm saying this but I might just buy some Argo on the bell if it doesn't spike too much!

Obviously won't hold too long due to the future funding needs but still has the potential to go on a bit of a run first.

That operational cost is based on far lower production, you would expect to see that much lower as volumes increase 3, 4, 5 times from now through the rest of the year. And that's the price after a fair old fall in flake graphite prices, you'd expect to see that considerably higher in the months and years ahead... hence the margins to increase significantly.

Fortunately Shanta doesn't have too much debt compared with many other gold miners like HUM and what with the stupendous cash generation we are seeing and likely to continue seeing for the foreseeable that'll be decreasing by the quarter. Sub $20m debt by this point next year I suspect and net cash position likely by the end of 2023.

They aren't going to put out Q4/FY before the year has even finished... you must mean end of Jan.

As for no Q3 I don't see why when we got a business update/Q1 on 27th April and a business update/Q2 on 20th July...