Member Info for HarChris

For me the only downside is the lack of a growth narrative here over the next few years. I know the approach they are taking is prudent but with how consistent Singida has already been it would have been good to see the construction towards the doubling of expansion at Singida beginning now and I'm sure the market would react favourable to that too.

On the upside the valuation just from a pure value stock perspective is ridiculously low with the numbers they are currently churning out. With low and ever decreasing debt and an EBITDA for the year of ~$70m, $135m is a ridiculous valuation. Another positive from a short term view is the number of rns' we are now likely to see before the next quarterly update - possibly all three drilling results + a successor to Eric. That alongside POG new all time highs and we might just see a more reasonable share price of 17p+

Well if they are after distressed companies there's still plenty to go at, in fact there's probably no better time to be in the market looking for more M&A than now... this board isn't exactly the risk-taking, urgent type though so I doubt we'll see another acquisition along the same lines until the most recent one has bedded in.

The cash position is still so significant that we can be as near as certain that all future capex can come from internal cash. And whilst I still think it's reasonable for it to take a few months before a substantial update is released to the market we're also fully aware that we had David Allmond getting his 'feet under the table' for three months, followed by another nine months of seemingly nothing before stepping so there's every reason for the current BOD to be working overtime to win back trust.

I personally continue to see the poor comms as an opportunity to add but the frustration is more than warranted.

Those warrants aren't make or break though. Yes they'd greatly help IES reach group profitability, which is expected when Mistral starts shipping in 2025, without excessive dilution but there's also the long awaited major strategic partnership that we're all hoping to hear of in the next couple of months or so.

Management has spoken on numerous occasions about a very busy quarter 4 news-wise, let's hope they deliver on those promises.

In times gone by Mara would have opened 20% up today with probably more of the same throughout the week. Times are a bit different... for now.

Yes they can, in fact they are about the only graphite company that can currently.

This will be most evident during H2 this year.

If you consider the total price of the Yourgene acquisition to be around £18.5m factoring in the net debt to be paid off then the current valuation at £32m values the rest of the business at just £13.5m (as debt is zero). Seeing as NCYT will have at least £60m still in cash and as we know the value of Yourgene would be far higher than £18.5m if they weren't close to insolvency then that once again makes the current valuation nonsensical.

Uncertainty remains re the court case but I think the reward far outweighs the risk so I'm adding again at this price.

Perhaps give them a few months to integrate Yourgene into the wider group? Not sure why anyone expected meaningful news and activity just five or so weeks after the acquisition was completed.

Is there a schedule for Q3 results? Are they expected before October is out?

How come they received $6.7m tax rebate, were evidently profitable for the quarter yet net debt came down just $3.8m? Would that mean the tax refund will show up in the next quarter or am I missing something?

Q3 results are scheduled for week commencing 23rd October, not the 23rd… so any day next week.

Forget the 30K capacity built out with soon to be close to 20K production, with so little debt on the books and with the appetite for high quality Ex China graphite mines one could make the case that the Suni acquisition alone could soon be worth more than today’s market cap.

The market is heavily pricing in a deeply discounted placing and yet everything about yesterday’s update says the opposite. A disappointing six months with lots of teething issues that started with 280k of cash and lower graphite prices wasn’t enough to force TGR into an emergency placing. Production is now running 50% higher and the least we can expect is similar pricing, at a minimum. We’re also repeatedly being given the message that a non dilutive debt package is coming.

With a step change in production and now the news coming out of China re export curbs the risk/reward at this level appears extraordinary

Yes this hasn’t been smooth sailing to say the least and there’s been more than a few hiccups along the way but right now new investors are able to buy into a company that’s raised £27m to get to this stage, that is debt free bar very small CLNs , that is seeing a big jump in production (1350TPM run rate through October so far) and is now generating positive cash flows, with a debt package for growth being lined up and sounding close to completion, in a sector that is expected to explode in the coming years as the graphite shortage dynamics play out…all for the paltry sum of £13m.

Only a few things need to go right over the coming months to look back at this moment and see what an opportunity it was.

Once the dust settles on yesterday’s update this China news is going to have a significant impact - just look at the bounce Syrah got today on the export curb news…

We were given big hints as to how good Q3 is going to be when it lands within the next five or so business days. For those that missed the webinar last month here’s a good summary from BBN on twitter:

https://x.com/bigbitenow/status/1704435504530305493?s=46&t=L7k3nxfxN_9xwjjIedxUrA

I thought it was pretty obvious that we weren’t going to hear much or see any sort of meaningful turnaround now until at the earliest January with the full year trading update, unless news on the dispute can prior to that.

Those two things (court case and successful integration of Yourgene into the wider group) are the two big share price drivers, so why would you expect anything this soon?

Six months ago Argo had 12 months for BTC to recover before the halving to give them some hope of survival, today they have six. Six months ago Argo had the ability to raise some cash via a placing in order to pay down some debt and continue operating, today it would be very hard to raise anymore funding.

The risk has ratcheted up considerably hence the relatively low valuation.

Certainly some truth in what you say panda and we aren’t likely to see a meaningful share price turnaround until those improved figures are confirmed but the fact remains that through all the issues and hiccups TGR have managed to be self-sufficient - I can’t imagine any other junior miner missing targets by so much and not being forced into an emergency raise from such a low standing start cash-wise.

Follow through on what’s just been stressed in the interview and it will make a total mockery of a £14m market cap.

Almost four weeks since the Interim Results and the extremely positive and bullish presentation that followed it - we must surely be due a whole raft of news throughout the rest of q4.