Member Info for HarChris

As I was saying recently the market is far more awake to realities this time around than it was in 2021. Argo isn't going to see a significant move that holds for anything more than a day or two unless BTC balloons to a level that actually makes a significant, real difference to their future survive and outlook. Only money to be made is immediately on the spike.

This time around we've seen BTC rise from $27K to $34.5K (~28%) and Argo goes from 7.5p to 8.8p (~17%). When you're not seeing outsized gains on the upside there can be no doubt that holding BTC is the better option.

It's a frustrating situation we find ourselves in where FM got us into a mess due to significant executional failures over the last twelve months or so or his tenure only for V to absolutely fall off a cliff a few months after Craig gets going.

Despite the increased float, despite having to sell Mokopane and half of Vanchem (in what is more of a transfer of assets as Vametco ownership increases to 100%) there is still a sizeable and structurally simpler business here that could deliver significant returns from this level but we're now relying on both Craig's operational skill and nous to turnaround the flagging operations as well as V to begin to recover before too much further damage is done. Not ideal.

CS there's another factor we need to consider as we reach 2024. Most of us on here think that (i) the most likely outcome re dispute is a settlement pre June and (ii) most also think that settlement would be at the very least neutral, if not in novacyt's favour. We also largely agree that anything from neutral to a large payout (think £50m) would be beneficial to the share price as the big downside risk is eliminated.

So as we go through 2024 right up until about May there's an extra incentive to hold knowing a settlement rns could land anytime and knowing full well that if it's in novacyt's favour then they are missing out on that initial 30, 40, 50 per cent rise, maybe even more, pre market open if still on the sidelines.

I do agree with GL in that the next set of results will likely be far better received with YGs revenues now added to the mix. We might also be surprised by the guidance what with Yourgene being fully funded through 2024.

It would be quite extraordinary if the DHSC don't back down in the coming months and actually take this matter all the way to the High Court when it's already all out in the open just how calamitous the covid operation was from top to bottom.

I think it's also fair to say that Argo has done just about everything it can over the past six months to keep itself in business. It got a placing away swiftly which meant 10p rather than what would have been lower a few months down the line, it has brought costs down to a level where cash break even is a possible reality, they are buying themselves as much time as they can in the hope of reaching a bull run, they might even make it to the halving.

The damage was already done but given the corner they were backed into recently at least I don't think they could have done more.

This is cash cost break even rather than actual break even and stops at Q1 2023, have you seen just how much difficulty has increased since? At least assume 20% higher for Q2 and 30% higher for Q3 compared to that Q1 figure.

I think that then aligns with Hexam's cash ~ $36K cash break even and closer to $50k group break even.

The last round of funding for SRB was a placing in 2021 for £12.5m @ 75p, that’s half today’s mcap… Since they have made a net profit and are on track to make $10m net profit this year, 1/3 of the current valuation.

All it will take is Coringa licences landing (expected v soon) and POG to remain this high and we’re talking £1 a share minimum.

That could come as soon as Christmas.

A debt deal has been the preferred route for a long while now with significant promises from Shishir that the next financing will be non-dilutive from early August... the further commentary in the past two weeks suggests to me that it's gone from preliminary discussions with lenders to a much more progressed stage.

If not a debt deal this side of christmas I still expect some sort of news relating to financing for the three PCU units, whether that is simply the £1m VAT rebate being realised or perhaps something similar to the prepayments we saw a few months ago.

Happy to see it settle at around this level til we approach the next round of news. Certainly feel odds are in our favour to see the debt package land this side of christmas, probably within the next three or four weeks.

This is the least 'pumpy' share out there with a board of director's possessing less gusto, charisma and salesmanship than Andy Murray on a bad day and it's trading at half of its NET cash position. Not just cash, which by itself doesn't tell the whole story, but net cash. And at less than a third of its net asset value,

This gets dumped beyond any logical rhyme or reason when news / catalysts seem a long way off and starts getting bought back up when that dumping reaches its extreme. And at those lows it doesn't need pumping to rise, it just needs some rationality to return.

So no, a 20% recovery after a 50% fall is not a pump and dump whatsoever.

After rising to 80p off actual, concrete, brilliant news (as it proved what some of us doubted, that the cash wasn’t ring-fenced) it has retraced far more than one would have expected given we’re getting closer to the dispute resolution / possible settlement and progress is now finally being made on the m&a front.

You aren’t half as irritated when it falls for no apparent reason.

I think I’ve been the only one today across Twitter and every platform I use suggesting the share price looks to have bottomed and is due a rebound so if you think a 26% rise in France is thanks to me alone then I’m really quite flattered!

Those latching onto the negative feedback from the AGM to call for '30p soon' will be mightily disappointed with this move today.

The retrace from 80p was already well overdone.

With the halving so close it makes far more sense to invest in BTC vs the majority of miners as you could still see 3X from here without the chance of being completely wiped out.

Only a few miners offer better leverage options than BTC if you're after the risk.

My first buy was prior to the AGM... as soon as James McCarthy stated that the next main update would be three months time and that we were unlikely to see an increase in frequency regarding updates it was pretty clear to me that the share price was going a bit lower next. Although it did drop the fall was modest to just 39p which gave me confidence that this really is likely the bottom and I bought again yesterday to make that 43p average I just mentioned.

Anyway that's my basic ruminations on the trading side alongside the broader investment case reasons I've been sharing for why I've started buying again recently.

I held off responding as it feels wrong to encourage someone to buy but now you already have I can answer that - yes!

I've shared that I've been adding again recently, 10000 shares at an average of just over 43p to be precise, so a tiny bit more expensive than your purchase. I'm aware of the risks but feel this is an opportunity again following the full post-acquisition retrace.

CS, in no way am I suggesting this is likely but the fact that at this stage the cash position is largely in tact and change *is* happening, albeit slowly, means those higher share price targets are still realistic. Not immediately following a positive dispute resolution but in time. If the cash had dwindled much lower I would sit here and say that £6 was nigh on impossible.

I don’t get the impression that our CEO and CFO are in anyway the type to micro manage and take total ownership in YG, in fact the installation of Rees as a director suggests the opposite. I think McCarthy would be relieved to delegate responsibility away from himself and his own sorry lot, they strike me as fish out of water trying their hardest to stay alive.

The investment thesis for the past eighteen months or so has always been focused around m&a, with a hope for organic growth to complement that. The latter has disappointed but at least now we have the start of the former.

Unlike you and your incessant efforts to present the worst case as more or less the only case I'm quite comfortable looking at all eventualities.

If it goes to court I think, like others on here, that it will essentially go one way or the other. If we lose it I think Novacyt goes bust, I don't see a recovery. If they win it in full then the potential for £6+ (in the future with YG contributing significantly and much more progress being made with new senior appointments making the difference) is a very real one.

And the most likely outcome being somewhere in between. A settlement in Novacyt's favour, some signs of progress being made and a share price in around 9 months from now around the £2 mark.

The below exercise was to show the likes of WBAFC that although challenging with lots of things having to go their way, the sort of £6 level in the future is far from an impossibility.