Member Info for HarChris

Cash equivalent to nearly 10% of the mcap is being generated EVERY quarter before we even talk of doubling expansion through the license. Mad profits being seen and POG looking to go even higher.

Lots of us in that boat Naewise although for the first time I don’t feel quite so worried about being overexposed… looking to overexpose even more with another top up at some point in the coming weeks.

Well that ain't a bad time to get such a positive update with POG threatening $2000/oz this morning, eh?!

A few key things that will move the share price to a permanently higher level:

(i) a rise in Ex China graphite flake prices - tentative signs things are happening on this front but nothing concrete yet

(ii) production targets hit (for H2 that’s 7500T) with a run rate ramping up to 10000 (20Ktpa). Next update q3 needs to be as close as possible to 3750T showing a step up compared with H1.

(iii) Debt funding secured paving the way to the medium term goal of 104KTpa capacity.

Each of those are derisking events that will contribute to a significant rerate but until they happen any rise will be liable to a retrace like we’ve just seen.

Argo's not a scam, it's just short on working capital, indebted and with no business case to turn things around.

Take a look at PacBio… they are a $2.25B valued company so to become a partner with such a business is obviously massive news.

Also just look at what potential the market ascribes to this sector in PacBio’s case. Despite suffering humongous losses year on year they continue to receive enormous financial backing, having raised almost a billion dollars over the past few years. Revenues are still rather modest at not much over $100m a year and net losses for 2021 were $181m and for 2022 $314m!

So many here think too small and dismiss Novacyt because they aren’t yet making a profit yet they have years to achieve that still without having to dilute us shareholders one iota… the potential with Yourgene alongside now and £50m+ sitting in the bank with no debt repayments eating into that is simply colossal.

Great news re the above.

Wildtiger holding the price down as he tries to exit.

You missed interims - the half year report has to be released before 2023 is out so getting closer to that now. I suppose that encompasses your second point as we will then receive a post-period update, probably with confirmation of improving production and sales through Q3 before a full operational update a few weeks later in Jan.

Difficult to predict when the VAT rebate lands but we know it's coming at some point in the months ahead and will be a material working capital boost. Anyway all good re rns today - wouldn't be too bad if this 20p level becomes the new support and ends up being the bottom.

Quite obviously did not sell 500K shares this morning at the highs.

Two things are necessary right now, one of which is within management's control, the cashew and palm oil operations and the other which isn't, prices of those commodities.

At least at the moment the uncontrollables are in Dekel's favour, as for the former we will have to wait a little longer to find out. The share price tells it's own story but there's still every chance of a sharp reversal happening all at once so I've added a little here at £11m mcap and hope that my timing ends up looking good.

What, another one?!

Shanta is one of the most undervalued in a sector that is severely undervalued - when are investors going to accept that POG is not going back to where many analysts had been predicting?

Now this gives cause for optimism:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil

"A few weeks ago when btc was just under $30k this sp was 8.25p.

btc now over $36k and the sp has dropped... ? Things arent' great that's for sure but the recent RNSs have been a bit better than expected so what gives?"

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Look back at the Argo SP from July to mid Oct and what you'll see is a steady downtrend that wasn't looking ever more likely to end in capitulation. So really all the recent BTC move has done has halted that capitulation with a few weeks recovery back over 10p. Another quarterly update comes and the balance sheet looks exactly the same. Barring a much bigger rise in BTC another quarter will pass with the financial position being identical and then we'll be in April and the halving.

There's definitely potential for a sudden Argo spike again around this price but it is merely delaying the inevitable.

What are you talking about? Let's just say they do manage to get to $50m debt by January (I do not see how that's possible but i'll play along). Buying Argo for $60m means you are essentially paying $110m, you are getting the 2.8EH (capacity, not actual hash) of old miners for $60m + assuming the extra $50m of net debt (we can assume cash will be close to zero).

That sure is expensive.

You also have to remember that not only does the company need to reach profitability despite the halving to start wrestling the $62m net debt position to a more positive one but a few years down the road the entire fleet will need replacing too.

Https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/mkwgSMqfyP4ExBzd24Zt8E/case-study-invinity-energy-systems-taking-aim-at-viable-energy-storage-solutions

For a turnaround they’re really needing around $85k+ BTC post halving plus a decent sized placing to reduce the debt further and possibly some debt restructuring. It’s obviously possible but I can’t quite work out how the risk is worth it at 8p when you could buy BTC and see more than a doubling given that scenario without the threat of wipeout?

Are you just trading a sentiment spike? Fair enough if so but a bit dodgy to encourage others in on it.

The price action today displays the lack of knowledge of this company - the sell off is suggestive of disappointment whereas in reality the update was as good as anyone could have realistically hoped for.

At most mgmt could have vaguely blathered about growth but it would be misleading the market.

***Very sorry, the debt figures are the other way round, debt has reduced by $5m over the three month period...