Member Info for HarChris

'Details of the results of the Placing will be announced as soon as practicable after the close of the Bookbuild'

And that was all done by midday today so any moment now, after hours or tomorrow latest.

Yeah the two things we want to see is close to $20m being subscribed from the placing/subscription and large conviction purchases across the three directors - what constitutes large is obviously open to interpretation but definitely well into the six figures combined.

Well we should get a very good idea on the YG cash burn in the next update via the cash position if not explicitly detailed in the trading statement.

Doesn’t sound like they’re too far off generating cash rather than burning it.

Definitely a question for Craig when we get the chance. As pointed out in the below post it's possible that they're going with the same Dollar/Rand exchange rate as guided this year which is 16.7Zar, when in reality it only dipped below that for a brief moment throughout the whole of 2022 and has averaged over 18.

If that is the case and as almost all cash costs are paid in rand we could be looking at a potential achieved cash cost of a few dollars/kg less than mentioned in yesterday's rns. Hope so anyway.

I'm with you on your general overview Ben.. For me the biggest positive is, well, Craig. We have someone highly competent who should be able to actually deliver what he's promising and turnaround the operations. The other main positive is that these deals guarantee survival for a fairly significant period now, well over a year whatever happens to V from here.

The negatives? Well we're now targeting a very similar production level as FM guided for both 2021 and 2022, and with $30m sustaining capex and repairs to get there. We're also working through the initial SPR funds currently due to such depressed V prices at what is likely a cash burn of about $7m a quarter at today's prices and fairly disappointingly we're not seeing much of. a move on the cash cost dial next year (I hope that's just conservatism on the dollar/rand normalising). If V doesn't pick up for a while we'll end up this time next year with higher production but with no cash left over for growth and only a fraction of the debt paid off despite issuing well over 1 billion shares, selling 50% of Vanchem, all of Mokopane, all of Cellcube. In return we have 100% of Vametco.

For those reasons i'm not overly surprised at the lack of appetite below 3p if i'm being honest.

CLSK i'll give you a comparison update using the Q3 results.

Revenues inc. cash credits for Q3 - Migi $11.3m, Argo $14.8m

Total debt - Migi down to $21m, Argo $70m

Cash (and cash equiv) QoQ change - Migi $5m down to $1.5m, Argo pretty much flat at around $9m. Important notes though:

Migi sold down some fixed assets to stay afloat, Argo had the placing during this quarter, raised $7.5m gross, paid down debt with $1.8m and the rest is cash burn. Therefore Migi needs refinancing pretty much immediately one would think, Argo gets through at least another quarter (and possibly to the halving depending on BTC trajectory).

Migi has quite high current assets so that's a risk, Argo doesn't but in terms of Net assets Migi usurps Argo with $40m net assets vs Argo's $2.2m net liabilities.

Market cap today - Migi $12m , Argo $59m.

The comparison is an interesting one. Migi has more immediate financial issues to deal with but they still have significant assets (above and beyond liabilities) at their disposal to deal with that. I'd say they both have a similar chance of going out of business but if they survive the upside is clearly bigger for Migi than it is for Argo, unless the next refinancing that comes causes a lot of pain.

Yes oversubsciption is generally a good sign but placings are usually at a discount, there’s no reason for the likes of me and you to take shares at 3p unless it goes well above that in the coming days.

I expect almost no take-up (sp being equal) but like you say let’s see. Would be a good sign to see another II or two come in and take the available $7.5m though.

Forget that net profit figure (which is obviously still amazing), look at the net cash inflow... it's $8.2m because that also includes the gold not sold.

They now have a large stockpile just as gold is about to hit all time highs...

The retail offer won't get taken up, that's all. Perhaps a tiny percentage of those wanting to contribute funding or wanting to buy bigger amounts that are difficult on the open market.

They don't need it, getting close to $20m from SPR, the directors and other instis is what they're after.

Really should have pulled the trigger on Migi with what we knew already about the potential upside from such a (unfairly) low mcap - rising aggressively now.

They shouldn’t have thought that, it’s always been stated as being at the same price as Orion’s subscription shares - that was announced as 3p on Monday.

And you’re specifically talking about picking decent entries and exits over a period of time, not working the stock daily. Two totally different things.

Yeah generalisation on my part but it’s certainly true that a majority lose money on AIM and professional traders would argue that systems don’t really work in low cap low liquidity stocks.

I’m sure there won’t be many AIM day traders making money. There will be those of the medium term investment ilk that trade successfully on AIM but that isn’t the sort of day trading that some on here think goes on.

I mean depends on how you look at it. Fortune guided production at 4,200 mtV and 4,500 mtV this year initially, with just over $7m of sustaining capex needed through 2023 to get there. Now we are guided that for 2024 but with multiples of that figure needed to get there.

Long term holders will be rightfully frustrated that they were led to believe the operational situation was what it was but this is the reality and at least at the end of this heavy investment we should actually see the higher production figure achieved.

It's also why I repeatedly say good luck to traders. Many will have sold today as they expected a sharper retrace but they'll have sold between 65p and 70p and would have to buy back now higher.

It's easy to just sit there when it falls and assume somebody is making money at your expense but it's not the case. Those traders are largely gamblers that end up losing overall anyway.

Amers i'm not encouraging anyone to buy I'm just sticking with my view that price action *is* very different now to at any point over the past few years. All I've said re the share price was this last week at 50p:

'I stand by my view that we'll settle at a higher base by the new year (~80p?) as anticipation builds towards the first trading update that includes YG + the countdown timer well and truly on re DHSC dispute and possible settlement.'

We're almost there already. Ps great timing with all your recent buys!

SRB is about to post $10m net profit for the year, a P/E of ~3.1, with that possibly falling to 2 or lower even with POG projections and the extra production that should now come at Palito. Usually you'd think what's the catch?

Is it debt? No, total debt is trivial and will be eliminated as and when mgmt choose (with more than $10m net cash position and growing)

What about the assets? As of June 30th net assets were $92m and I'd expect this to exceed $100m by the end of the year.

Is there a lack of appreciable operational upside? Absolutely not. We have considerable exploration being done and funded by the second largest listed business in Brazil and assuming all goes well with Coringa (which everything is pointing to) SRB have an already funded route to 60K/oz, which doubles revenue and improves margins substantially.

Could today's $33m market cap treble to $99m? Without doubt and it doesn't require much imagination either.

There isn't actually a Q3 target, what we have is this:

'In H2 FY 24, the Company estimates base case production of 7,500 tons though working towards reaching 10,000 tons, given the limitations of head grade. '

So we are assuming that roughly half of that will come in Q3, i.e 3750T. And we were also informed that they were seeing 40-45T of production per day through the first 19 days of the quarter (extrapolated to mean ~1250TpM/3750TpQ.

I think if they were to fall a long way short of 3750T in Q3 and they are yet to receive the £1m prepayment that they would run out of liquidity and an emergency (albeit small) placing would be necessary, so in that regard no news is good news.

We'll get the boost we're after in the half year report next month (post period highlights and interview following) if all is well so not long to wait.

When Serabi broke the downtrend last time in late August we saw a near 100% move, from 21p to 40p. I think we're shaping up for something similar.

The market won’t believe it til it sees it so it comes down to whether you believe it or not? As long as you do that’s what matters, especially if you have funds available to increase your holding in the interim.