Member Info for HarChris

I'd be content with giving away say 15-20% of the business at a premium to ensure a strong partner comes on board that capitalises the business right through to Mistral and beyond. 40 million shares issued at 50p i.e £20m funding and 17% ownership after dilution.

It's worth looking back to 2020 when Shanta saw a five year high of 20p and stayed well above 15p for almost half of that year.

Revs were $147m, EBITDA $63m, net cash was $37m (healthy placing) but Singida was still to be built. Upcoming production guidance for 2021 was 80000/oz.

This year we're looking at ~$190m revs, EBITDA ~75m, net cash around $5m, guidance for next year to be at 105000/oz.

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With virtually no additional shares issued since the end of 2020 and comparing then and now it's hard to conclude that there's any justification for Shanta to be trading below the level it was from mid 2020 onwards. That 15p-20p range should be back on given patience and time for these profits to flow through to the books and if sentiment turns then really new five year highs should be reached.

CLSK, do you know what the make-up is of Migi's machines and how recently they were plugged in? Having missed my entry previously I too am looking to take some now, ideally (even if just psychologically!) below $1.

Easy to miss it because it was announced today.

The closest proof we have is here: https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1714194434110136753

With things like this it's a combination of evidence and logic but can never be 100%, of course. Today's placing offers further evidence that they are choosing to raise rather than sell in the very short term, at least.

I'm offering more proof that they have stopped selling than you are of them selling.

Everything from the comments made in recent updates to the placing announced today points to Battery Minerals choosing to hold onto their TGR shares rather than sell them at these depressed prices. The cash position they've announced since also corroborates with having stopped selling in October so yes it is scaremongering because it's blatantly not true.

Firstly they acquired a gold project in October, when the selling of TGR shares ended. They paid for the project in shares, so not a placing but an equity raise of sorts. They also declared a cash position of $1.2m in the same announcement confirming there were no longer any short term working capital issues:

https://www.batteryminerals.com/investors/asx-announcements/ - pdf document here, Oct 17th

Also here: https://www.mining-technology.com/news/battery-minerals-acquire-gold-project/?cf-view

Then today they announced a placing, at a premium, to raise $560k, choosing therefore to issue shares instead of selling TGR shares:

Again found here https://www.batteryminerals.com/investors/asx-announcements/

They haven’t sold their tranche 1 shares yet, they stopped in October after going the placing route instead so obviously aren’t going to start selling these shares.

Good effort scare mongering though, 9/10.

It's not misleading to point out an improvement in prices according to AM, that's usually a good indicator of trend. Europe's prices have always been fairly reliable from that site too.

From Fast Markets it does appear that the US V price is going the other way however which is a bit of a blow following years of elevation vis a vis the rest of the world.

A late reply to your post Amers.

It appears to me to be continuation of the uptrend we've been seeing for weeks now. After bottoming out at the end of October at 40p it took a few weeks to find support at 50p, then a few more weeks to find support at 60p and here once again it looks to be attempting to breaking into a new higher range.

Great to see.

Two weeks til markets close for Christmas and not one single RNS of note this quarter - disappointed to say the least following the optimism i felt after the last Investor Meet at the end of September.

Got to hope they come like buses.

Misleading to say the least. Yes tin looking a tad perkier and has risen to around Andrada's AISC but lithium is at two year lows and more than 6X off its 2021 peak. If it is starting to turn it's worth pointing out the level in which it's turning from.

Irrespective of that it's very rare you see such premiums paid out. It's even rarer to see companies fighting over a business as small as Yourgene.

Nobody's pretending YG is the next Roche but we can probably all agree that Novacyt acquired them at a price that could turn out to look very savvy in time.

Only a few of the former YGEN holders called it a bargain, it's obviously a risk but that will be the case for any acquisition Novacyt makes, they can't exactly afford big cash generating established companies can they?

I'm sure the premium novacyt paid was enough to put others off, it was unusually high.

And not illogical at all, you won't usually find the big boys trying to compete with small cap minnows. They'll be more than comfortable paying a few hundred million further down the line if the technology is proved out and scalable.

We can only conclude that no company capable of outbidding Novacyt were interested in acquiring Yourgene for such a price. It might be that Novacyt signalled they would increase their offer if necessary and hence bigger fish weren't willing to pay £40m+.

There are plenty of smaller diag. companeies that would seem a natural fit that simply wouldn't be able to gazump ncyt's offer and be able to fund them in the way necessary.

The 80% figure was given on 28th September, Greg has previously said (I think in the interview following the interims) that they can see accurate figures up to one month prior so he gave that guidance after knowing the numbers for July and August. September just happened to trail off vs expectations, slightly.

Coffeecups always had a random figure of 2p in his head and because, by chance, it went that way he now thinks he's really clever for waiting for that entry and is primed to make his fortune.

When I was posting numerous times a day V was at $41.5/kgV, production guidance was ~4350mtV, FM spoke confidently of 5000-5400mtV through 2024 without additional funding necessary and had a plan to 8000mtV.

Now average sales price is at around $29/kgV, we're informed that about $25m capex is needed to meet this year's original guidance and any higher than that is no longer mentioned, 50% of Vanchem has been sold and there's an extra 1.2 billion shares in total that will be issued but because he's in now and wasn't before this is the mother of all opportunities whereas before BMN was a great big flop.

He could never explain why BMN was worth 2p at the start of 2023 and he can't explain why it will be 10p in the future because they're simply made up numbers.

The difference is so small (76% QoQ growth vs 80% signposted) to be more than offset by the exceedingly positive uplift in price per prescription.

Easy to see why the chairman bought £122k worth two weeks ago and incredible value on offer what with it still being 20% below the recent placing price.

The truth is that this share is all about catching a spike before a deeply discounted placing lands, and it will if BTC goes on a bull run before the halving. What sort of price might the share price rally to first, even if only brief? No one knows but 30p seems a reasonable guess, 40p+ not beyond the realms of possibility either if something as dramatic as BTC at $100k in early 2024 were to occur.

The higher this goes the riskier it becomes though as no-one will want to be on the wrong side of the raise so that will limit the upside.

Maybe should have waited just one more day to see if popping on to let us all know of a 'proper downward spiral' was helpful.

We always appreciate the effort to keep us informed though.