Member Info for HarChris

That's your opinion as far as I'm aware CS? You haven't had confirmation of that have you, that they are able to buy and sell as they want despite having intimate knowledge of what's happening re dispute discussions, that we don't have?

I personally (yes my opinion) think it's rather unlikely they are able to buy when the dispute has such a big impact on the future of the company.

Cash costs at 4000mtV are ~$106m. A reduction of $1.5m is barely 1% reduction. Total costs at 4000mtV are about $160m, $1.5m is less than, or about, 1 percent.

That’s genuinely really helpful and well intentioned, even if you two are in a tiny minority.

Not a single purchase or sale says to me that they feel they would fall foul of the UK Market Abuse Regulation if they were to execute a trade. No more no less.

A 15% increase in share price YoY for a company that has gone from a small loss in 2022 to being about to post over $6m group profit, or to show the change even clearer a company that's gone from a net cash outflow from operations of $1.7m to a net cash inflow of ~$14.5m, against a market valuation of $32m, is obviously ridiculous.

It's really positive in a way to see this pedro. We know BBN is far more knowledgeable, researched and balanced than most posters and the likes of taser highlight the misconceptions that many will have in regards to Serabi and miscalculating the chance of success of all being well re the Coringa licence.

That's what makes this such an opportunity - one could argue that failure to attain the licence is being priced in yet everything points to the opposite...

The vast bulk of the finished goods inventory was used in H1/ up to late July in order to stay afloat cash-wise. Over 300mtV more sold than produced in H1 (~$12m) with the rest presumably sold in July when Craig informed the market that the stockpile had been sold down.

That’s how bad H1 was before Fortune left as CEO.

You're invested in just one other share and are deeply underwater in it. To quote you as CASP tumbled from 8p to 4.5p a few months ago 'anyone not loading up now should give their head a wobble'

Well I hope they ignored you and gave it a good wobble instead - sure they might have a headache but they won't have lost half as much money as you.

The only similarity between me and Ben is that we say it how we see it without an ulterior motive.

Like here, both of us expecting minimal uptake from the retail offer yet others like coffeecups and Marc talking up possible full subscription and in Marc's case, expecting full take up - never happening.

Anyway an extra £74k in the bank and on we go.

Cheers. I wasn’t completely sure what I was talking about there so needed your far better expertise to help out!

No but I believe, taking the update on the 22nd November, that Palito could now deliver 40k/oz pa for around 5 years of mine life (206/oz total) without much additional capex and without the 6000/oz contribution from Coringa currently.

OF course this would not be the most compelling of investment stories but it would leave Serabi with more cash on its books than the current mcap a little further down the road which could be redistributed to investors or invested elsewhere.

As a worst case scenario not so bad from this current valuation.

'If they don't secure the full license and the trial license is suspended, the drop would be substantial unless a positive Vale update counters.'

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Serabi will end the year with a net cash position of close to $15m. Palito's recently seen a considerable increase in mine life and grades. Even without securing the full mining licence how far do you expect it to fall from its current value of just £26m?

With Palito at 40k and gold around $2000/oz we'd be looking at profits of about $20m a year. Add in the net cash position and it wouldn't take long to see net cash match today's market cap... yet you expect a substantial drop without the full mining licence?

It would require both failure of the licence and a significant fall in POG to put such pressure on the Serabi share price.

This is the wording from the fundraise: 'by way of a non-pre-emptive placing to institutional and other investors (the "Placing") '

I'm fairly sure if some deep-pocked PIs with six figures + to invest approached the company they'd have been included in that original placing, not be forced to wait for the small primary bid offer.

I'd find it both interesting and surprising if they got anywhere close to £2m.

Impossible to say because it depends very much on what winning the case means in terms of cash received (is it the full £81.5m compensation or more likely somewhere in between?), how much operational progress has been seen by that point etc - I could give you my guess but it would be nothing more than that.

The big money will be made from a combination of winning the dispute and executing successfully on strategy from this point forward.

You don't have any figures to hand as essentially admitted previously, you just took 7% from a quote from a website and shared that.

Facts seem to hurt your feelings so you dig for insults - no more time wasting on you today, feel free to have the last word.

Kaeren it's hard not to follow this and feel wholly optimistic about our own chances re the dispute... When you take my like-for-like comparison with EKF and then factor in the high probability that we see a further cash injection in a maximum of seven months it really does feel merely like a matter of time now til we see a meaningful share price rerating here.

Estimated global production in 2023 is 131800mtV.

Largo production through first 9 months is 6900t v205 = ~3795mtV equivalent. Add in another quarter and you get 5060mtV equiv.

That gives 3.8% of global production in 2023. Sure q4 might improve slightly, global supply might be below the forecasts but no way do we get to 7%. 5% max like I originally posted.

Let's have a look at just how good the CPO production improvement is...so prior to this update:

July '23 (t) 2231, vs July '22 (t) 929

Aug '23 (t) 1416, vs Aug '22 (t) 1024

Sep '23 (t) 2149, vs Sep '22 (t) 1296

Oct '23 (t) 1723, vs Oct '22 (t) 1677

So as you can see increased production in every single month with standout improvements in July and September. Now add November's numbers:

Nov' 23 (t) 3875, vs Nov '22 (t) 1535.

The turnaround is phenomenal and I make it 76% year on year growth for the first five months in H2. Now the part DKL have no control over, the palm oil price, is down 23% but the improvement in production dwarfs the change in selling price.

More of the same and 2024 will be a great year for shareholders.

Always good to debate the pros and cons of any investment, sadly though you usually only appear when the share price is under pressure.

Don’t be a stranger when this starts recovering.

Actually, at such a crucial juncture one swallow may actually make a summer here.

As I've previously pointed out DKL is at a very pivotal point, get through this period in one piece, making all debt repayments and reaching cash positivity on the cashew side and this recovers considerably, but fail and god knows how low it can go.

So the continued improvement in CPO production is very timely.