Member Info for HarChris

I'm not convinced that was why he posted. He made it clear he wasn't in the camp happy to take shares and so one could then imply he was in the minority that didn't accept the written resolution. Most likely he used the situation, armed with some verifiable facts (July interest hadn't been paid, Shishir had stopped replying to 'him') to cause a bit of a stir. The narrative that he posed was evidently not true (one where Shishir was essentially shying away from his obligations to note holders) so there's every reason to believe the rest of it was fabricated too.

Interestingly that initial post is no longer on LSE...

Ben, 'too expensive to crack' is probably the closest to the mark. The best read across we have is Invinity, in the last three years they have raised ~£75m, as well as the grant from the DOE of £11m this year and still they are needing further funding to reach cash breakeven in 2025.

Good timing for that update no doubt… Just might see a little spike here now.

@wildtiger never did share the shocking revelations he supposedly came across, nor did his call of a BTC retrace happen. And yet said with so much bravado!

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-arabia-studies-graphite-rare-earths-trading-platform-minister-2023-11-30/

It’s inevitable if POG keeps rising, margins improve dramatically with every $50/Oz incremental increase.

I should have said fully paid in shares + a fraction of the proceeds from the CLN.

I still don’t agree though re the reason for SP being so low. The slower than expected ramp up in Madagascar, which has meant a delay in cash generation and put constraints on working capital, caused the sell off following q1 results. That had the knock on effect of BAT needing to sell almost three times as many shares as they would have needed to (at say 45p) to raise the near term funds they required and also drove the share price to a point where the CLN couldn’t be converted.

On the other hand Mozambique will attract certain investors and open up financing that wouldn’t be there if TGR only owned its Madagascar assets.

Yes you are in the minority.

First of all no, Mozambique / Suni has not stretched TGR's resources because the acquisition was entirely paid for in shares at a higher price to current market price. £5m was raised at 35p and just over 12 million shares were issued at an average price of ~45p (factoring in tranche 1, tranche 2 and consideration shares).

In total one could say that 26m shares have been issued to pay for the acquisition, to cover the cash sum to BM, the capital gains tax, working capital for progressing activity etc which equates to around 30% greater float.

Now what do they get for that?

Fully permitted 158000T permitted flake graphite production across Montepuez and Balama,
$30m has already been spent on at Montepuez by previous owner and yet the project passes on zero debt to TGR,
the grades are far better (Montepuez, 119Mt of graphite at 8.1% TGC containing 9.66m tons of graphite) than Madagascar’s and it is a battery-grade project, critical when it comes to raising debt finance.


Becoming cash generative across Vatomina and Sahamamy enhances the business case, helps TGR stand out amongst so few producers and derisks the investment but it is the potential from Mozambique, particularly Montepuez in the near term, against a backdrop of Chinese export curbs and rising demand for battery-grade small flake graphite that makes TGR such a compelling opportunity right now.

The price action continues to be far more positive than we've seen for yonks. When momentum is lost we are not seeing the big sell offs that we did in the past, instead stabilising at a higher level than we had previously before attempting another move north.

Last week we appeared to have found support at 50p, this week more like 60/61p. I'd take slow and steady all the way to 80p/90p before the next update.

I don't, there's numerous sources suggesting that a debt deal is close now, with one individual going as far as to saying confidently it will land next week. Could that include some subscriptions shares alongside? Sure, although looking at numerous other deals in the small cap mining sector of late that subscription would almost certainly come at a premium to market price, reflecting an acknowledgement that the share price is excessively beaten up currently.

It's pretty clear that there is some truth to this however we're talking a tiny amount owed (£180k minus amount accepted in shares) against a backdrop of at least £17m net assets. What's unclear is the veracity of the events since the missed payment, the extent to which TGR management haven't co-operated etc

There's plenty you could do to substantiate all the claims you've made but so far have chosen not to.

There is no threat of voluntary selling for many years to come, the tragedy would be if MSTR becoming a distressed seller.

The more they raise and buy bitcoin as opposed to debt-based buying the lower risk of the above happening.

Don't agree Introv. They set a maximum amount ($20m) so if that was immediately forthcoming then it would close, either at midday or even earlier. Much more likely that they have kept it open longer because it's undersubscribed and are attempting to push through more investment.

It's not a huge surprise when the likes of Kamran Sattar was able to build a 5% holding in the company at an average around ~1.75p on the open market - let's hope the rns lands later today.

I don't know the answer Andii but the recent guidance for H2 was given with the full knowledge of what was needed re PCUs so we should assume that the path mgmt are taking leads to 7500T-10000T production in H2 either way.

A least the BOD appear aware of their own incompetence - it means they'll potentially relinquish key positions / promote others when there are better candidates for senior roles.

It's not too difficult to go back and work out a rough cash outflow /cash burn prior to being bought out but that won't necessarily apply to YG under the Novacyt banner. From my previous research (which I don't have to hand) the actual cash costs were low but YG were being buried by things such as the high refinancing fees, costs of restructuring, monthly interest and one-off debt maturity payments. Also due to the acquisition they never ended up releasing either the full year report for 2023 or half year 2024 (their years run different to standard) so up-to-date developments are harder to pin down.

Hopefully the update in Jan will be reasonably comprehensive.

This site for China and to a lesser degree, Europe: https://www.asianmetal.com/Vanadium/

Fastmarkets for US. BMN also gets ~5% premium on the advertised US price.

BMN sales are currently weighted as 49% US, 29% Europe, 6% Asia, 6% SA, 10% rest of world.

Hope that helps.

It's one way to look at it sure but buying into MSTR you are (i) trust MSTR to time their buys better than you as an individual (it's much harder to buy 5000BTC at a time than say, 0.5BTC and mstr are notoriously 'good' at catching the local top) and (ii) continuing to pay a premium to hold MSTR.

Value of BTC holdings = $6.6B

MSTR market cap = $7B

Debt = $2.7B

The business intelligence arm isn't worth that $3B differential clearly but folk buy MSTR because they know, value or not, it will outpace BTC in a bull run.

So today it was announced that MSTR bought a further 16130 BTC for $608m. This appears to have come from the equity raise in August of up to $750m, meaning with those proceeds they bought $147m worth and then more recently splashed out the rest at $37.7k average.

As I pointed out in my last post in September MSTR going the dilution route is great for bitcoin as it increases the equity:debt on the balance sheet and reduces the chance of MSTR finding themselves in trouble and becoming a forced seller. Not sure I'd enjoy being a shareholder continually diluted however but I guess it's a proxy for BTC and so they expect it to inevitably go much higher...

Additionally today MSTR also entered into ANOTHER $750m equity raise.

There won't be many companies out there with a net cash position one third their mcap that's continuing to generate ever greater profits. Gradual progress is being made in terms of share price appreciation but the market if not fast asleep is certainly still dozing. Won't be long til it's woken with a fright.

Best guess would be a worked sell from this morning, playing a part in dragging the share price down.