Member Info for HarChris

Wilson is the last person that deserves criticism. Despite all you've just said you didn't turn up to the AGM and Wilson did, he made it eminently more watchable and actually forced them to answer some testing questions.

One other thought, what about averaging down? Do you have a spare £660k laying around to invest? You could get a million shares for that now, 1.5% of the company. Heck do that a few times and you'll certainly get an audience with the CEO.

As there's much agreement that what happens next with Largo could have a significant effect on the vanadium market Ex China I thought i'd share today's update. It's a technical exploration note so if anyone has a better understanding of it then feel free to summarise it!

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231218584081/en/Largo-Provides-Update-on-the-Ongoing-Exploration-Program-Surrounding-its-Marac%C3%A1s-Menchen-Mine-in-Brazil

So you’re claiming your first ever stock market investment was ~£660k into a small cap diagnostics company on AIM that had just risen 6000%? Well you might not get your money back but you deserve a place in the Guinness World Records in some form or other!

No harm in a bit of research first ils...

IES has yet to make a profit, all investors know that. The launch of their next gen tech Mistral improves efficiency, lowers MWh footprint etc etc to such a degree that margins are improved significantly and cash generation will begin. That starts in 2025, there was always one more round of funding needed to get there although we weren't sure whether cash runway was H1 2024 or H2 - so today's news is positive on that front.

Still, in whatever form it comes, delivering on these projects expecting to be concluded in Q1 will make the funding far more palatable, especially as Mistral will be well within sight by that point.

It's always worth remembering that it's not today's POG that matters most but the average over many months/years. Shanta saw its ATH of 20.5p in the year in which gold saw its all time high in October 2020, but POG only averaged $1770/Oz that year, this year it's averaging ~$1950/Oz I believe and is heading into 2024 above $2000/oz.

That's a lot of cash generated since, a lot of funding secured, Singida built out, more ounces being mined at the higher prices, many years closer to breaking ground on WK yet only 60% of the ATH share price...

In many ways this is a fairly simple business to follow.

Two uncontrollables are the CPO price and cashew price. The former is the most important and continues to hold up well although stabilising closer to 4000MYR/t would make a huge difference to margins and the latter appears stable over the long term.

And two controllables, the CPO production/extraction rate and the same with the cashew project. 2023 has seen the former improving substantially and we await news on the latter next month.

Potential for a good run up into 2024 as things stand.

I agree Richard although wouldn't funding from strategic partners come in the form of issuing shares? I assumed it would at least be part debt and part equity, still positive in the sense of bringing long term partners onside that weren't here for a trade.

Don't think that's still a thing, I don't recall it ever being discussed again post late 2020. Invinity then signed an MOU with US Vanadium in August 2022.

I'd have thought if the partnership was go Craig would have mentioned it by now.

Talking of IES they've just included this in their business update:

'Invinity is also pleased to announce that it has recently been awarded a CAD $74,700 research grant from the National Research Council of Canada which will be used to advance the Company's vanadium electrolyte development programme.'

Has anyone seen them mention a vanadium electrolyte development programme before?

Well whether you like to admit it or not that’s the gamblers mentality. Could be worth speaking to a colleague about it and see what they advise.

To be fair that’s the read across I get from Invinity. Yea it looks like they can be successful but from an individual standpoint, with US government and UK backing and with proprietary tech in Mistral - without that they would continue to burn cash and operate at huge losses.

That’s not mass scale, that’s one company with protection of its technology that’ll also be benefiting from relatively low V prices currently.

My post the other day clearly went over your head so let me personalise it just for you WBAFC and assume you really did buy 110000 shares at an average of £6.10 a share.

You've said on a few occasions that you can't afford to lose this money but the fact that you've survived around three years without it suggests technically you can afford to lose it. You aren't owing a mob boss £600k, your house doesn't appear to depend on it, it's just you don't want to lose it (understandably) and perhaps it would make retiring early at West Brom Medical Centre an impossibility or your dream to buy your child/children a flat would no longer be possible etc etc

So now as understood you've obviously coped without it for three years, why is it essential for you to make a profit? If the choice is between recovering say £350k or nothing wouldn't the former be better? In that case you have another option, you can set a target price below the £6.10 a share and exit with some capital with a much higher chance of success... you've mentioned a few times you think £3 could be reached so that would be £330k back in your bank, guaranteed, safe. Or £4 /£440k, not bad when there might have been a time when you thought you would lose it all.

Food for thought.

You made a very strong claim

'VRFB wont take off with sodium-ion batteries

now the next big thing.'

You repeated your thoughts and then went on to claim both that your opinion was irrelevant and 'just putting out there'

__________________

Very confusing and erratic posts, are you sure SideshowB isn't your burner account?

From what I can tell the biggest positive that sodium proponents espouse is that it doesn't require lithium and therefore could ease the lithium shortage threat - on this front vanadium flow batteries tick exactly the same box.

The only thing sodium ion appears to have on VRFBs is cheapness. Maybe that will prove to be the key factor but there's more than enough demand out for more than one non lithium battery storage technology.

Good read that, thanks.

'If II's were not interested at the current price on the data release (135p) and were not interested at 111p, then it COULD be inferred that either the data is not compelling enough or the value is not worth the current SP.'

You say this but we know what would happen if an II tried to buy ten to fifteen million shares, the share price would easily run away so it's not a case of IIs being uninterested at 135p. It might be that there's an expectation, rightly or wrongly, of a placing at some point and that'll be their way in. For size IIs would be far better off paying a premium to current market price rather than attempt to buy on the open market.

And that's with realised prices in the low 800s, if as expected graphite prices start to creep up from here then the margins will be substantially improved at $1000+

The numerous missteps late July and the far lower than expected protection through FY 24 is why the share price is low and Shishir has a lot of work to do to fully regain trust going forward.

On the plus side the last six months have been rather intuitive from a margin perspective. Even before we see the accounts we know TGR must be operating reasonably close to break even because they had such a modest cash position of £280k nine months ago and they haven’t raised any cash besides taking a portion of payment in advance at a discount. So if we can conclude that the Mad operations are close to break even at just 2250Tpq then they should he profitable at just 3000Tpq and throwing off cash anywhere close to 6000Tpq.

The mistakes will either prove to be telling or they will be seen as teething issues at the start of a huge growth journey - you’ve picked your side and I’ve picked mine, if I’m right this will have been the best of opportunities to add at such a low share price.

No it's very simple. TGR missed the deadline because the auditors didn't sign off the accounts before July 30th. This time it's unaudited so there's absolutely no chance that they don't release the half year report before the end of December, it's a different circumstance to full year results and is fully within their control.

Any intimation that suspension again is highly probable is just an attempt to cause a bit of unwarranted doubt.