Member Info for HarChris

Yes, I am just long enough in the tooth to have seen similar said that turned out not to be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. And JW has form of moving the goalposts.

Not been following Harl as much as I should so will leave this to the more knowledgeable posters who appear to be reasonably pleased with today's announcement.

The problem is JW has proved himself to be someone that says what's expedient not what's true. He says they have enough cash to see them through in the interim but then there's every chance that that turns out not to be the case and he will just blame something such as 'lag between work done on existing contracts and payment'

Everything is always a little worse than he lets on.

I have read the ten page growth strategy and it does sound like there's enormous opportunity. Tbh I was just being a bit lazy and wondered if Anthony had mentioned or hinted recently as to future driving down of costs and timeframe to profitability for the current tin operation.

I shouldn't be so lazy and just do the research, sorry!

Question for a newbie here taking a look at ATM...

I notice Andrada's AISC sits firmly in the $25000-$30000 range and that's about the long term average price of tin. On the tin side what's the route to profitability? Is there a growth plan well beyond 1000T of contained tin per year that is expected to bring down costs through scale or are forecasts predicting much higher tin prices in the future? Or a combination of the two?

In other words alarm bells would be a placing at 15p, CLNs with conversion and warrants at say 50p allows growth to take place at a more reasonable valuation of £55m-£60m. That is reasonable to me.

Equity on the whole is the route ambitious companies go, load up with too much debt (which CLNs still run the risk of) and you can find yourself in a whole world of trouble a few years down the road.

Equity, at the right price, is fine.

A small cap miner is not going to be able to grow from 4700T in the last full year to 400000T (yes almost 100 fold) by the end of this decade without some dilution along the way!

What's been said time and time again is that mgmt will do all they can do avoid diluting us at such a lowly level which they feel is unwarranted. We therefore should expect a combination of straight debt, equity to a partner at a premium and debt/equity, i.e CLNs, that will have a conversion price many times the 15p we're at now.

There is no certainty that everything will fall into place here, that the vastly increased production numbers in the coming years chime perfectly with a big rise in graphite prices but that's the risk that comes with a small cap miner in a sector that's historically been unprofitable yet is at the centre of the biggest energy transition in history.

If management execution is poor and/or luck is against them then there might end up being limited return here but if it all falls into place and management executes their strategy successfully we could see £1.50+ in the coming years.

This is a high risk growth stock - if it wasn't, if success was guaranteed, if profits were flying in you wouldn't be able to buy in today at 15p with all the progress and first mover advantage that TGR has acquired.

This is worth digging into as the offer is for an almost identical price as Shanta's offer ($170m USD in this case). Also Tanzanian based...

Ambitious plans for a 240k oz project, no debt and $16.1m cash as of last update but it's going to cost Ore Corp hundreds of millions to reach production and by that time (mid-late 2025) Shanta will have generated $100m+ cash!

How are the two companies valued the same at this time?

Between 31st Dec and 30th Sept:

(i) $7.2m raised and around 110 BTC have been sold (call it $3m?)

(ii) $6m debt paid down

(iii) Cash position $12m lower

That comes out as around $16m cash burn through the first 9 months of the year which would mean running out of cash very soon at that rate, but... BTC has risen faster than difficulty in recent months which extends the cash runway.

Possible to reach the halving in April I would think now or at least til mid-late Q1.

No that's bolloc** i'm afraid, you can't compare Argo to Dogecoin because the former is an actual business with limited cash that has no option but to raise money soon. They can't just ride the wave indefinitely because they'll soon be out of cash and would have to halt operating instead.

Fortunately they've done well enough to hold off a bit longer but it will be necessary, unless bitcoin MASSIVELY outpaces difficulty. Possible but unlikely.

Michael Saylor is an excellent salesman and a terrible analyst. He’s smart enough to know when he has a captive audience, like he has right now, hence the price predictions.

The chance of him being right is extremely low.

They will, at a minimum, survive a little while after the having if they can maintain a high share price for long enough and manage to pull off an equity raise of £20m+

The short term debt maturity deadlines will be met given the above with a good few months post-halving of cash runway but the actual balance sheet won’t look all that exciting and they’ll be deeply loss making again.

Still,that scenario is becoming a distinct possibility once again.

Hi Croq, it's based solely on comments I've had in some recent mgmt correspondence which said, and I'm very much paraphrasing 'expect the next trading update in line with q2's timeline rather than q1, the latter being later than usual due to coinciding with the full year results.'

If you look back Q1 was released on the 8th August, more than 5 weeks after period end.

Q2 was released on 19th October, less than three weeks after period end.

The latest period ends this month so if we get the next update inline with the last it would be here within about three weeks.

'Seem to have hidden the current liabilities from the RNS,'

_____________________________

No, they just have extremely minimal debt and liabilities, always have done. That particular negative of yours is actually a major positive... Here's the most recent audited accounts so you can see for yourself:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/final-results-fy23-tnbxos04fotjnoq.html

SF, a very balanced and fair post yesterday, thanks.

Too soon imo to get excited about these rises as it is a bounce off extreme lows but certainly reason to feel a bit more cheerful. Fingers crossed it continues and we get the typical early year rise in V.

Beevorma I don't particularly disagree, I shared my sunny take on here but we know Shishir is a salesman and from past experience it is reasonable to assume that anything omitted is probably because it's not overly positive.

There's more than enough going on here to continue to believe that debt finance is coming and soon and that we're close to a step change but this isn't the update that will provide a meaningful rerate.

You would have said the same thing in April and in August but they've continued to ramp up without having to raise and are telling us that a debt package is coming. Yes probably CLNs involved in that debt deal but this will open up enormous production growth heading into 2025 and beyond which times perfectly with forecasts for graphite shortages.

Would have liked a post-period update but seeing as I'm reliably informed we should get it within 2-3 weeks it's long to wait for the next quarterly numbers.

(i) Huge increase in net assets, now at £31m, almost double the current market cap

(ii) Confident statements around improved Madagascar production in the immediate term

(iii) Whilst no post-period highlights we know from cash figure on 30th Sept and with no more prepayments that production must be increasing.

(iv) A plus point for getting the report out a day earlier and not leaving it to the very last minute.

It will partly depend on what POG does over the next month. I'm sure Saturn have been squirrelling away trying to get this over the line before a break out in gold but it might just be that the bid's come too late - hard not to see some sort of counter offer or increased bid if gold is sitting firmly about $2100/oz come a vote and all Shanta's peers have gone on a huge rally...

Not on my part as you'll see from my comment before. Always enjoy discussing Argo through the highs and lows and openly admitted to selling the holding I had here too early recently.

Happy for those riding this quite exceptional rally