Member Info for HarChris

I've come on here plenty of times and asked the bulls to share their investment case but there is never one forthcoming, besides a wallstreetbets-style pump that allows the company to pull off a raise that makes little sense fundamentally but makes more sense when you understand the nature of this share.

That's what those putting money into the placing in July were doing, committing funds at 10p that ensured Argo can make it to the end of 2023 minimum and be there for another pump. Those placing buyers pulled their trade off successfully.

How many are willing to do that again knowing the halving is so close? Probably none at market price but a 50% discount will entice a decent number. Not sure if that will be $10m worth or closer to what they'll want, $30m+

It’s got to be bullish that after a near 100% rise over six months IIs are adding, not taking profits…

A combination of even higher POG alongside progress with Coringa and this really takes off. Big q1 in store.

****goestheeasal re your post on the shg bb about srb and coringa license expiring in a month's time... i think you need to do a bit of research as that's simply incorrect.

From a fellow SRB holder with significant funds in both... pedro please stop cross ramping on here. It's not the reason for the rise over there and is just annoying and inappropriate.

That's a fair summary but I still think there's a reasonable chance that the court side completely with Novacyt and we win outright. Would prefer it to be settled out of court in the coming months though.

This share is nothing if not a rollercoaster.

Is it a red wine day?! ;)

And even if it were true that Shanta hadn't returned any cash to shareholders (it's not true as you point out) it seems pretty likely that they would be able to distribute plenty of cash to shareholders with an EBITDA looking like it will be close to $100m for 2024, with already a strong cash position to start with...

A £50m placing means actually raising £50m over a matter of weeks to PIs and instis, it's not possible that they could raise anything like that with the halving about three months away.

If a placing were to land tomorrow it would almost certainly be at no more than 17p (50% discount) and would raise £15m absolute max.

Fortunately it would appear they are in a strong enough position to hold off a bit longer, the higher the share price goes/longer it's held at a higher price the better the chance of raising the sort of cash they will need to stay in business.

More dilution?! THX listed on AIM in June 2021 with 623m shares in issue.

Now there's 655m float so a 5% increase over more than two a half years... i.e nothing.

I wouldn't call the cash pile huge for a producing goldie but it's growing day by day and coupled with the lack of debt means the balance sheet is incredibly clean. And against such a low market cap it's certainly significant.

The combination of (i) strong net cash position, (ii) gold above $2050, (iii) great strides forward on sorting Coringa licence, (iv) potential cash injection and new gold mining opportunities from Vale partnership means we really should be seeing the share price at/around the 5 year highs of ~110p.

Should have said end of the decade* which is only 6 years away now.

There is expected to be around 40 million EVs being built a year by the end of the century so even if a good chunk of those vehicles have graphite free batteries we're still talking a huge year on year increase in graphite demand.

Six months??? How long is everyone else expecting the whole process to take if the 13.5p offer is accepted by shareholders?

Some seem to think that Novacyt investors are unaware of the dispute or that this is a bb full of rampers trying to suck in the less knowledgeable with hype and hyperbole and hence they need to offer the opposite persepctive, albeit from newly created pseudonyms... that's far from the truth. Go to the qbt bb, arb bb, hzm, plenty more I could name to see what that really looks like.

Here we have sensible posters who are comfortable sharing the positives as well as the negatives, the opportunities as well as the risks. This might have been a bb rife with ramping in 2020 but now it's a rather civil place with four or five excellent posters who are hot on the detail and research and a few others offering decent overviews of the current state of play.

Best to ignore the obvious disruptors or all of the above is lost in a sea of petty squabbling.

This is one I've been watching for a while but have only just opened a position. In other goldies SRB and SHG much more heavily for now (although SHG is under offer) but could continue to add here on weakness against ever strengthening POG.

Definitely a different type of investment to the one we find ourselves as oral combatants on!

'HarChris sees potential for £1.50.....that's what it's fallen from, remember? Hardly a great record'

_______________

Firstly my average happens to be in the 20s so it's more than a reasonable upside target.

Secondly it's relevant because the share price is 15p now so even if others bought in at 150p they could average down significantly if they have available cash

Thirdly, the share price hasn't ever been 150p, even if it reached 140p briefly nobody is going to have an average anywhere close to that.

No need to be so patronising either. There are probably the types that refuse to sell out at a loss as a principal but I'm sure the majority are like me, more than willing to cut their losses when they consider the risk no longer worth the potential reward. That is not the case here for me and isn't for others holding too.

I do however agree that a large finance package right now would come with some pain and for that reason I suspect Shishir wants to see a clear turning point reached before the larger package is agreed. Just got to hope that the prod figures are at least rising to that 3750T per quarter and we'll start to see a recovery, especially if graphite prices strengthen in the new year.

'Operational issues may continue to hamper gains in the short term, it's the same reason I sold down GDP and HUM.'

_______________

Not HUM's $123m of net debt? That wasn't a factor???

If THX's operational issues were anything like HUM's they would have seen their net cash position rise this year like HUM's has, but it hasn't, it will have more than halved by the end of the year.

'Net debt went up on the previous quarter despite production in line with expectations.'

One anomaly due to a number of factors...

Net debt

31st Dec - $31m

31st March - $25m

30th June - $16.8m

30th Sept - $19.4m

Management was already anticipated a far stronger Q4 than Q3 before gold pushed through $2000/oz so it's hard to see anything but a very positive update in a couple of weeks time...

Some great posts and now the share price showing my pessimism to be wholly unwarranted!