Member Info for HarChris

Zolander you are shameless. You start last week vehemently denying any chance of a placing, you then backed down a bit but said it wasn't coming 'for ages' yet today when you've been proved to be utterly clueless are continuing to spout your rubbish.

PO prices are now bring predicted to range between M3700-4100 through 2024, modest gains on the current price. That would be more than enough to provide solid cash generation and profit but of course output needs to remain as consistent as it has this year and the cashew project needs to flip from cash sucking to cash producing.

The foundations are in place and the potential is there, it now rests on execution. Time will tell but fingers crossed for a good couple of updates (cashew and palm) later this month.

Well the obvious answer is that Yourgene is worth roughly what novacyt paid for it, rather than £100m+.

That doesn't mean it isn’t worth more to Novacyt with the potential synergies we will hopefully see, neither does it mean it won’t be worth £100m+ if/once the products prove to be a success.

Like with any acquisition it’s a business risk but as holders of a cash rich company that was coasting it’s more than a step in the right direction!

'Why raise so little? '

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Answer has to be debt maturity looming and this being the most they can pull off at short notice...

Just imagine the ETF isn't approved, BTC falls back and Argo drops below 10p - would mean game over.

I think my prediction previously was £10m at 16p so amount raised is less but agreed price is higher. Overall pretty good outcome imo.

I'd be tempted to buy as this retraces to the placing price now.

Even more news.

And whilst those of us calling a placing were always going to be 100% right I have to admit that looks like a good job from management. Placing price is amazing, the amount is still only a sticking plaster but there's room for the share price to go much much higher before the next raise is needed in six months.

Actually there's some pretty respectable AIM stocks on that list - AVCT, ARCM, ONDO, HVO and a couple of others. And yes a few of the usual aim crew pumping suspects.

It's rare Novacyt ever gets a mention though so it's pleasing to see.

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CS, I sort of agree wih your views on Yourgene but I think it's a bit simplistic. We're in a very difficult economic environment, especially for small cap listed companies and usurping an offer means you need to be able to raise those funds pretty much immediately.Even much bigger companies like EKF (mcap £140m) would need a pretty significant placing as they don't have anywhere close to the cash, we're talking only £300m+ mcap companies with that sort of funding already in place...

So all we can really say is that there weren't any small to medium sized companies able to cough up £25m that would also have the firepower to fund Yourgene in the way its needed. Big pharma are never going to fight Novacyt for a business this size. If the likes of Lightbench/ Ranger technology proves as good as is hoped for example they can just snap the entire Novacyt group for a few hundred million pounds with pretty cash.

'Disagree Tony. We would have been at +13p regardless of this t/o offer so don;t see the sp crashing.'

We also don't know if Eric and the board have actively attempted to keep the share price low. There were many of us that asked constant questions like 'why not increase the dividend? What about a special dividend to remind the market just how much cash Shanta is generating? Why are the drilling results being pushed back? Why is there such little rush to double Singida's output when it requires such minimal capex and WK is still a long way off?

Previously most of us would have chalked this all up to Eric having a plan with our best interests at heart, less so now.

I never really bought the £100m organic revenue claims and so I never invested because of those comments. What matters now is the potential vs the current valuation and so far it's worked out for me, having added significantly at the bottom and highlighting the positive risk/reward at the time whilst you went around scaring as many people as possible to rush for the exit at the worst possible time:

'A year to go and we sit at 38p, dropping every day. It’s becoming more and more conceivable that this could be 5/10p by the court case time.'

'May even buy a few when it gets to the 10p mark to bring my average down and hope for a dispute bounce. Ha'

'Could hit 10p at the end of the year if H2 is like H1. 72% reduction YTD. Same again in H2 takes it to 10-11p.'

Novacyt will soon be seeing double the revenue it saw pre covid from the Yourgene side of the business alone.It was heavily indebted pre covid with just £1.5m in cash to turn things around whereas now debt free with around £50m in cash.

There is also a completely different backdrop and appreciation for molecular testing and diagnostics post covid.

Light and day.

Seeing as the next update will show us that Net debt over 2023 halved from $31m to ~$15m and with EBITDA likely coming in at over $60m and with 2024 beginning with such a bang as POG remains firmly over $2000/oz I've taken the opportunity to add one final tranche of shares today.

I see little justification for this share price weakness and market cap of just £90m/$115m against THX's ever strengthening fundamentals. An opportunity to take advantage of before the upcoming quarterlies imo.

Yeah true, it’s China that will be very much approaching $30/kgV, Europe still with some catching up to do.

I must admit my heart sank a bit when it was made clear at the AGM that we weren't getting an operational update until Jan, that we weren't going to get detail on Yourgene's outlook, the funds Yourgene needs to reach profitability etc until the main end of year results in three months time.

That's now just two to three weeks away so I'm expecting a little bit of interest, anticipation and buying pressure in the trading days ahead.

Europe should be back to about $30/kgV now and Nitrovan selling closer to $32/kgV.

A far healthier base from which Craig can rebuild the foundations but another $5 average increase would really help.

I think actual spread was more like 4% today, quite different to the advertised spread.

Around 16.35p to sell and 16.9p to buy at the end of trading.

Besides some major operational issues I would assume December's revenue will be the highest in 2023 by some margin, no? Won't we be talking something like 140 BTC at an average price of $42500? So around the $6m mark?

Argo are actually doing okay at this price ,and this difficulty, operationally speaking - the problem is the cash generation just isn't enough to overturn a $62m net debt position with only aging machines as assets and the halving just three months away.

Anything from about $5m to $10m for me, there's always unforeseen costs that unexpectedly spring up - then there's $13.7m of debt maturity due by 30th September 2024. We don't know when those payment deadlines fall exactly (well I don't) but I would imagine some of that will be between Oct and Jan, hence lowering the cash position further.

Zolander, by your estimations what do you think the current cash position is, today, Jan 5th. I'll share my workings if you share yours?

You are welcome to your opinion but unless it's backed up with some reasoning it's not worth an awful lot.

Besides BTC going absolutely crazy a raise is as close to 100% - there is just no way that the cash runs for anything more than a month or two post April. The better question is will management wait to the last minute or will they move early and take advantage of a higher share price? That's the only unknown really.

I've come on here plenty of times and asked the bulls to share their investment case but there is never one forthcoming, besides a wallstreetbets-style pump that allows the company to pull off a raise that makes little sense fundamentally but makes more sense when you understand the nature of this share.

That's what those putting money into the placing in July were doing, committing funds at 10p that ensured Argo can make it to the end of 2023 minimum and be there for another pump. Those placing buyers pulled their trade off successfully.

How many are willing to do that again knowing the halving is so close? Probably none at market price but a 50% discount will entice a decent number. Not sure if that will be $10m worth or closer to what they'll want, $30m+