Member Info for HarChris

Https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240122645527/en/Largo-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Operational-and-Sales-Results-Highlighted-by-Record-Quarterly-High-Purity-V2O5-Production-Provides-2024-Guidance

This is just the summary update so no cash or other $metrics are given but a few points of interest:

(i) The revised guidance was met at the lower end but it's the fourth consecutive yearly decline in production, now 20% lower than what they were producing in 2020.

(ii) Production and sales forecasts for 2024 show no expectation of growth from the vanadium side of the business and stockpile sold down already.

(iii) Forecasted cash costs increasing significantly if anywhere near upper end of range.

(iv) Sustaining capex forecast consistent with previous year

(v) New ilmenite revenue stream needs to carry the vanadium side over the short-medium term

The average benchmark price per lb of V2O5 in Europe was $6.46 in Q4 2023, a 22% decrease from the average of $8.25 seen in Q4 2022; The average benchmark price at December 31, 2023 was $6.53, a 31% decrease from the average of $9.44 at December 31, 2022

The average benchmark price per kg of ferrovanadium in Europe was $26.61 in Q4 2023, a 20% decrease from the average of $33.20 seen in Q4 2022; The average benchmark price at December 31, 2023 was $28.70, a 21% decrease from the average of $36.50 at December 31, 2022

Vanadium spot demand was soft in Q4 2023, primarily due to adverse conditions in the Chinese and European steel industries, however, strong demand from the aerospace sector continued; Demand in the energy storage market is anticipated to increase in future quarters, specifically in China

The decline in vanadium prices during the quarter is expected to negatively impact the Company's Q4 2023 financial results

'That placing price does look so clever for those who took the shares, oh well'

Probably the same investors that took shares earlier in the year at 10p in that placing so more or less break even at 15p. I still think there will be one or two more pushes higher before the halving so I hope to get a kinder exit price for my recently mistimed trade!

Imagine employing that sort of rule on twitter, reading every comment you come across and giving equal weight to each of them - you'd sure be unproductive and learn very little!

Being able to quickly pick out important and useful information from trash is a vital skill in this day and age.

International CPO prices continue to knock on the door of 4000MYR. I know that isn't the exact price DKL themselves receive but higher int. prices will see local prices trending upwards also.

Foundations continue to look strong, over to management to make the most of it.

BMN have already received ~$23.3m from SPR so about a third of the total package.

Well we'll see in the next few weeks the exact effect when we get production and cost guidance for the year (if it's even given in the Q4 results now) but my guess is that production forecasts will be lowered with little to no change in cost guidance.

Two weeks of lost production in January is ~ 190mtV = $5.7m if there is no change in total costs for the year. Even if some cost saving can be achieved through plant downtime we're still likely talking $4m+ that immediately affects the bottom line.

That's if the rest of the money lands in the next few days/weeks. We're also informed that without these funds the company will be running at reduced production levels until the end of Feb, so potentially a further hit to the bottom line and that's assuming the money still lands before the end of Feb.

Whilst it's never good to sour relationships SPR really have left BMN heavily out of pocket and in a very uncertain situation now, compensation is the least that should be expected.

I think the only way they don’t win is if POG goes on a tear in the next month or two, pushing against that tide might be too much.

Otherwise they’ll probably win through apathy.

Already nearly 40% below what institutions recently paid in the placing so downside is probably limited for the time being.

If debt previously was $21.3m and cash/cash equiv is now $27.2m that means we've almost certainly swung to net cash. And yet... it's not even mentioned.

Doesn't get much clearer than that what's happening here.

That's a very fair summary Zan.

If all had gone to plan this year we'd be talking £1.50 a share not 11p, that's the difference between executing successfully for small caps vs failure, even over just twelve months.

6000Tpq through 2023 (24 financial year) would have instantly unlocked the 6000T extra capacity in Madagascar and would also have unlocked significant funding for Mozambique, probably through a combination of debt and equity.

What we have now though is a share price a quarter of what it was so the upside, from here is very similar to what it was in Jan 2023. That's not much comfort to those with a high average that have watched it fall all the way from a pound but it does present an opportunity for newcomers as well as a chance to lower one's average.

In fact the potential upside is probably much higher than a year ago due to not only starting from 11p but also because we're entering the period in which a graphite shortage and hence high graphite prices have been long signposted, late 2024 into 2025. And as I pointed out in a previous post the wider market conditions and low graphite prices will mean the graphite space is far from prepared for the sort of increase in demand that we are likely to see .

We could well see a perfect storm of factors come together this year but what we will need is a vast improvement operationally and targets actually being achieved going forward to make the most of that perfect storm. I still hold out some hope but I'm sure we'll have to endure a good couple of months at least, first, of doom and gloom til there's any palpable change in fortunes.

Larry, that's excellent news. We really are seeing a merging of Yourgene and Novacyt now which to me is the best of both worlds.

Peter Coyne has a great CV. He spent five years as Group Head of Operations at EKF (one of the closest comparators to NCYT) before becoming an Operations Director at DiaSorin, a £multibillion diagnostics/biotech company. He went from there to Vice President of Global Operations at YG.

To get to 36000T per annum funding was always needed, we’ve know that for a while. And not £1m of funding, a larger amount than that (although detailed numbers haven’t been given).

The small placing is essentially for working capital, for stabilising operations at 1500Tpm/18000Tpa and covering CLN payments. It also buys time until the £1m VAT rebate is paid.

With a debt-free balance sheet and cash break even at 18000Tpa that should provide the platform for a debt package on good terms to optimise operations so 300000Tpa can be reached + increase capacity by a further 6000T.

Have TGR underperformed vs expectations? Absolutely. Are they in a mess/ is this a nightmare scenario? I really don’t think so.

Let's be honest the likes of tomorrowtoday are in dreamland right now, this is everything they've wished for and more.

I've accepted that the narrative is with the bears at the moment and that won't change til positive updates filter through so for me it's best not to bite or respond if you're getting wound up and just come off the BB for a few weeks til the dust settles on this placing.

The start of 2024 has seen tons of great EV related news, wannabe graphite producers elsewhere are really struggling to get off the ground so the the signposted 2025 deficit has as much chance of materialising as it ever has and TGR are still reasonably well positioned to make hay if/when that times come.

Personally, for me, given the fact I only reduced slightly when the share price was higher and still have a significant holding and given the fact that TGR will now have little to no debt (as they use these funds to pay off the CLNs) at 11p this is far from the time to throw in the towel, if anything it's the time to double down if one has cash available.

Fund below 4% due to the adjustment following equity raise on the 10th Jan with new shares issued on the 11th.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUM/notification-of-major-holdings-2zt9uppt60kb6qy.html

In past communication I was led to believe the next quarterly update would be released mid-late Jan, so next week is when I had it pencilled in for.

That was before the equity raise though so it's possible that timelines have shifted.

Could we push for our very own Kaeren on the board?! Knows this company inside out and would be a welcome boost for diversity!

I know Kaeren but as new individuals join the executive team that have considerable experience on AIM i'm confident that that message will get through. For now you could argue that there's a ceiling to the share price anyway, there's a limit to how high it could go with the potential for the entire company to be wiped out and the lack of any II investing we'll therefore see until that uncertainty is behind us.

This whole sorry saga has left SPRs credibility in tatters and left BMNs larger financial package looking rather tenuous, even if the $12.5m is received today or next week. It's now reasonable to assume we'll see a downgrading of forecasted guidance for 2024 due to being unable to hit the ground running on the necessary Vanchem repairs and I'm sure many investors will be more wary to invest than they were a couple of weeks ago.

All so a few mates of SPRs can buy in at 1.5p? Really? Nah no entity is that masochistic.

'· The Company notes that on 18 December 2023, the country's main fuel depot in Guinea's capital Conakry had a fire impacting oil supply in country. The Company is working with its fuel supplier contractor to minimise any adverse supply impacts at the mine. As a precautionary measure, the Company has temporarily suspended mining operations, while the processing plant continues to operate, until regular fuel supply is restored, which is expected in the near term.

· With the ramp-up of Kouroussa progressing towards the higher-grade parts of the orebody at the Koekoe deposit, the Company continues to expect Kouroussa to reach full commercial production in Q1-2024.'