Member Info for HarChris

Ps great post GLTader, very informative.

I am firmly of the opinion that we are in a closed period. Most of us think there's going to be a settlement over the coming months which would mean almost certainly talks progressing at this point. With it being so very critical to the future of the company one way or the other it would be highly surprising if directors felt comfortable buying with that sort of insider knowledge.

If Lynn Rees bought £250k worth of Yourgene shares at a valuation of about £10m mcap that included all their debt then i'm confident he'd be buying shares in the combined novacyt-yourgene group that has over 10x the cash YG had and no debt at just £33m mcap.

So if no director deals are forthcoming that to me simply tells us that they can't rather than they don't want to.

DKL found themselves in a mess in 2023, too heavily indebted at a time when any heavily geared company was being sold off due to rising i.rates and with very little cash.

Palm oil performance rescued them from what could have been a disaster (a forced emergency raise would have been extremely ugly and probably sub 1p) but continual cashew failures have knocked confidence and will have dented what should be a very healthy balance sheet now.

We need to see more of the same from the palm oil business through 2024 and the cashew issues must be resolved. So far int. palm oil prices are very favourable (gone through 4000MYR as we speak) and the effects of El Niño are expecting later this year so the foundations are in place for a very profitable year.

I don’t think investors will return though until it is seen in black and white, so looking at a few more months most likely without much SP recovery.

Nonsense. It is unheard of to be valued below net cash (cash minus debt) , I’m not sure I’ve ever come across it besides ncyt, and this very unusual situation is still mainly because of the dispute. Even you’ve said that numerous times (you keep predicting wipeout).

The fact that ncyt have been able to acquire a respectable diagnostics competitor and spend all the money restructuring and absorb years of poor performance and still have £44m net cash is positive.

If they won the dispute in full (big if, sure, but it’s your scenario) I see at least temporarily a rally to 2 times net cash - hence £3+ would be possible in the ensuing frenzy.

That’s the sort of exit price that would be possible at the top of the spike for those itching to be done with this investment.

Asking someone if the share price is going to rise 1200% because that happens to be your average is a really stupid question. It’s irrelevant to everyone else that uses this bb.

I don't know about that but Interestingly Monday was the highest volume in TGRs history at 5.9m shars traded and yet the share price opened at 10.75p and closed at 10.75p - must have been some sort of large changing of hands.

Share price is drifting down on low volume meanwhile CPO prices strengthen.

Here's another article today with a little more insight https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/us-fatty-alcohol-ethoxylates-prices-gain-momentum-amidst-palm-oil-price-rise-and-global-24789

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGVkhCrY-6w

From 12:30. Nothing particularly insightful but interesting to hear an analyst say what most of us on here believe, that the share price is simply overshadowed by the DHSC dispute and once that settles the market will be able to value Novacyt on financial grounds.

As for the cash it's £37.6m lower than a year ago with about £25m attributed to YG and is yet to add the Taiwanese divestment back on to the cash figure. The twelve months have been focused on restructuring and on finding cost synergies between the two businesses so there's reason to put the actual cash burn at around £10m per annum and hope that that will be slashed through 2024 so loss in the dispute remains the only solvency risk for many years to come.

Don't apologise for cross dressing, this is 2024 after all!

Sold 30m and only needed to buy back about 22.5m to be back above the threshold yet instead he shows a 1m purchase on twitter? Probably just trying to drum up exit liquidity to close out completely.

I'm here for the peerless debt- free high-cash balance sheet and because I believe the DHSC dispute will land in Novacyt's favour. I'm here because I believe that a turnaround in revenues and margins isn't too far away.

I'll buy more here because I think at least £2 will be seen after the dispute and that's a very healthy return on each pound spent at these prices. I think that's a reasonable target with a reasonable chance of being achieved even if it feels a long way away after recent price action.

‘ maybe they need to be working on more commission based remuneration’

____________

They’d be homeless by now if they earnt by commission!

I remain of the opinion that YG alone, armed with £44.1m in cash, would be worth at least £80m so that's more than double the current mcap. I'd have preferred more detail and forward guidance in the update and it's not going to trigger a rerate here obviously but as i'm committed to hold until the dispute is resolved at a minimum for me it's much of a muchness.

Will add slightly on further weakness and then sit and wait for the next six months to play out.

About a quarter of that went to Graham Mullis and there was absolutely nothing that could be done about it, it's just how the events played out.

It's hardly news that the management were well out of their depth, it's the reason the share price is where it is. However I'd argue the actual cash burn over the past few years is much smaller and there's been huge amounts sunk in reorganisation in which only now, going forward, will we start to see the benefits. Not to mention plenty on legal fees that will (hopefully) prove very fruitful soon.

No, not true. You were trying to imply the £100m to £44.1m was almost all cash burn - 'only one relatively low key acquisition' - when in reality around 40% of that cash decline can be attributed to YG.

The total cost of the YG acquisition was between 20 and 25 million I believe due to writing off the debt, so almost half of that fall in cash is YG-related and now absorbed. There's a few million to be received from the Taiwan divestment and it sounds like the investment towards the merged group synergies has already been largely sunk.

With no debt and a net asset value well over £100m I still think the discount is extreme.

No WTT, no volume whatsoever. One day last week just 3000 shares were traded, yesterday just 20000. Most of us could move the share price slightly with a buy or sell.

We're in deadlock until news so the fall tells us nothing, it's just a handful of small sells.

I think I shared this stark statistic for Largo previously:

Sept 30th 2022 - Cash $62.7m, debt $15m

Sept 30th 2023 - Cash $39.5m, debt $65m - a negative swing of $73.2m in just twelve months! (Does include building of ilmenite concentration plant)

Looking at yesterday's update they will have finished the year with~ $20m cash but they have a large working capital facility they can draw on for another 9 months or so so whilst gearing will continue to increase dramatically I suspect they'll hold on for dear life and hope that the vanadium price recovers before they are indebted to oblivion... especially now BMN themselves have signalled a possible halting of operations.

The entire space is hurting, from the explorers who are struggling for funding right through to the primary producers.

The trial license has been continually extended over the past few years so every reason to assume that will happen again if all the 'remaining aspects of the consultation process' are not completed by the end of this month.

We were already looking at a healthy strengthening of prices through H1 into H2 due to the El Nino effect but now with the Houthi crisis in the Red Sea on top are we about to see a repeat of spring 2022 with CPO prices spiking well north of 4000MYR?