Member Info for HarChris

Those that have been in since 140p must be really scratching their heads at the current share price. I mean, sure, they haven't set the world alight in terms of growth and describing the business as 'flatlining' over the past few years would be a reasonable summary but the balance sheet is almost identical to what it was when the share price was 140p, in all aspects.

Punchy at 140p definitely but this does look like far more of an extreme on the flip side at 9p.

Until about three days there was virtually no discussion of Orion and that deadline. It wasn't what concerned this bb, it wasn't the immediate term threat, that was SPR and the rest of its funding package. It remains so.

Of course it's a positive that the Orion deal is over the line but it was always expected. Orion aren't injecting $47m of fresh capital, they are restructuring the debt and giving BMN more time to get their house in order, for mutual benefit.

The ramping yesterday simply created an opportunity for cynical traders to exploit and the 75m shares traded since with the share price still at 1.45p proves that.

We know from how modest the cash burn was through the first six months of the year that TGR were only running at a small loss when producing and selling just 800Tpm. A mere £1m raise appears to be for covering any upcoming debt/CLN repayments and enough to stabilise production at 1500Tpm, roughly double the level we saw in H1 and almost certainly therefore reaching cash flow positivity. To then raise capacity by 6000T and a drive to as close to 3000Tpm (doubling production again) should not require all that much capex, only a modest amount that would leave TGR as a significant producer with minimal debt.

The risk is that management continue to disappoint again and again and this trickles even lower but my word so little has to go right form this point forward to see 3X, maybe 4X returns when buying down here.

Don't get me wrong Kaeren, I'm not saying there wasn't some premium given due to covid hype but Yourgene's share price wasn't hugely different in 2020 than it was in 2019. I think on average it traded about 40-50% higher post covid to before the pandemic.

Novacyt however traded around 5000% higher through 2020 vs 2019!

That's partly the reason sure. Sentiment was with AIM whereas it's the other extreme now but no Yourgene wasn't caught up in the covid hype in just the same way other diagnostics companies like EKF weren't caught up in it.

Even if £165m valuation was punchy in 2020, which I'd argue it was, today's £35m valuation merged with Novacyt with all debt written off and many times the cash position is obviously the opposite extreme.

Will have been what put so much pressure on the share price yesterday, someone not liking how tight things were with the Orion deadline...

Unlucky whoever it was that sold!

You're referring to the 67m aggregated trade at 1.1p? No way that was a buy, that was someone dumping.

What? 3.5m sold at 1.8p and bought back at 1.54p? I can't see those trades and that's how much you claimed to own just the other day.

"To avoid the Company incurring additional costs in respect of regulatory requirements under the U.K. Prospectus Regulation regime, the issue and admission of the Subscription Shares will be deferred until such date as the Company has sufficient headroom to admit the Subscription Shares without having to issue a prospectus. It is expected that admission of the Subscription Shares to the Standard Segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange will be on or around 24 April 2024 (although this would be further deferred if necessary to ensure that any issuance is not affected during any closed period)."

So we know that TGR only raised £1m gross and are in no rush to access the rest of the funds. From this the most recent CLNs have been paid (£200k?) so cash burn must be extremely modest and approaching cash flow break even now.

Management show us that you're approaching 1500Tpm and the rerate from this lowly level can start.

It really feels like Novacyt is the baby brother of Yourgene now - it's Novacyt in name only.

Here's an interesting fact. Back in 2020 when Yourgene raised and had £15m in cash they commanded a valuation, albeit fairly briefly, of £165m. Yourgene is now debt free, has Novacyt's suite of products, distribution channels and broad geographic client base alongside and has cash of £44.1m on top of whatever's been invested over the past four months since acquisition. And now is valued at £35m... Disconnect?

Really excellent day and finally the pay off for those of us that bought in the 20s earlier this year with what seemed like an unjust disconnect.

I think there's room to kick on another 50% over the coming weeks.

You must be a bit thick or perhaps illiterate if you think we've gone awol. I continue to post as much as anyone and Glengarth posted as recently as last week.

Terrible share price and performance in 2023 but company is hardly in the gutter. Decent chance that at some point soon TGR will be producing 18000T of graphite whilst being debt-free.

Performance is only half the reason the SP is doing so badly though, the other half is sentiment across the entire graphite space.

Yes was me, in previous correspondence in December I was pointed towards mid to late Jan for a quarterly update although there were no promises in that regard. Instead, we had the equity placing rns at that time so perhaps there's other news that's close that they would like to include in the quarterly update?

I know for a fact though that Shishir is well aware that holding off on bad news is a terrible strategy so I lean towards further news being close that they want to tie in with the quarterly update.

I have however noted at least four times recently when you've predicted the share price to tumble, which turned out instead to be the bottom. That appears a habit of yours. Most recently was this one a few days ago at 45p:

'Fair enough HC, and I agree about no rerate and I suspect we'll just drift down now towards the 30's as we approach June. '

My word at least you never did try your hand at trading these shares, you'd be down far more than the loss you're sitting on now!

No not in this particular instance.

Happens time and time again. Share price falling and looks to be close to a capitulation event, two or three of the same names pop up right on cue to predict oblivion... and then when the share price starts to recover they disappear again.

If/when things materially improve here they won't return to acknowledge it.

As for the cost of YG if we ignore the potential of YG's portfolio of products and tech the latest accounts shows a net asset value of around £25m. That's even higher now the debt has been cleared.

YG only had £2.5m of debt, they weren't bankrupt but they would likely have been bought out even cheaper by private equity the next time they run out of funding.

As for the current cash position GLT earlier pointed out the £8.2m of VAT receivable we will see if the dispute is settled in neither parties favour and we are expecting up to £3.2m for the Taiwan lab disposal. Those two sums alone come to 33% of the current mcap and add another year's worth of trading, even using your highly pessimistic assumptions that things don't improve year on year.

For the first six months of the year the cash position reduced just £5.3m. The second half of the year it reduced £37.6m which I think shows that the actual cost of the YG acquisition including write down of debt and fees was around £25m and that significant funds have already been invested into the business at the back end of 2023.

If that's the case then it's possible we're far closer to profitability now than anyone expects and we still have £44.1m for future investment.

Also confirmation that the poster on here that kept referring to the end of Jan as the end of the trial licence is talking bollo***. Mike states clearly that they can continue to mine as they have been without the LI but they expect the full licence in Q2 of this year which will allow for full mining and a ramp up to over 60000 ounces a year in 2025.