Member Info for HarChris

I'll defer your specific question to someone more clued up but in terms of current price we know that average sales price was €800 for December and we at least know there's a positive correlation between local prices and international prices, even if currently local prices are slightly below int.

International prices were around 6% higher in January than they were in December and have remained around 6% higher so even if local prices aren't as high as int. prices it's reasonable to assume current selling price is at least €800 still and possible more like €850 now, both of which are healthy.

And forecasters are predicting higher prices in H2 than H1 due to the El Nino effect, so on that front we shouldn't be concerned.

If I was to give TW any credit it's that he's skilled at what he does. He identifies AIM businesses with particularly negative sentiment and he goes after them, using his not inconsiderate following, in an attempt to cause a pile on.

I think he's chosen badly when it comes to NCYT though. Almost everyone still holding is sticking it out until the dispute is resolved, as can be seen by the tiny volumes we're getting most days so I suspect we're still at/near the bottom despite TWs articles and the mildly negative news we've received recently.

Not a single trade since Monday!

Telling that he concludes the best case scenario is they run out of cash next year - that's unadulterated nonsense. Best case is that the company are close to reaching profitability after all the investment this year and win the dispute outright, leaving them with £120m net cash next year. Worst case scenario is true. Somewhere in between is likely.

As I've said previously always worth being aware of what TW is up to but when he targets a company he loses all balance and just goes for the jugular. Whilst he gets some calls right he gets many wrong too, never to mention said companies again.

Any hint of another similar situation to 2020 and the likes of ncyt would mutlibag overnight from hype alone. They wouldn't need to sell a single test for that to happen.

There are too many variables to say at this time but the point CS is making is that he assumes given a favourable result there would be an enormous spike and, if he hasn't seen enough progress or clear direction from the company by the time that happens, he'll look to exit on that spike.

I'm in a similar boat currently. If the outcome were to land in our favour tomorrow and I was suddenly offered £2 after a few crazy trading sessions I would at a very minimum be reducing considerably.

What if a settlement is agreed in late May? Well, it's impossible to say what I'd do (and that goes for most) because we don't know what the picture wiil look like by then, perhaps we've seen palpable progress from Yourgene and finally sentiment is turning? Perhaps NCYTs own portfolio is finally bearing fruit? Perhaps there's just been a bolt-on acquisition that looks very promising? Perhaps £60m is coming our way?

In all honesty whatever the situation i'll probably at least sell some as it's sensible portfolio management after buying so many shares at 50p but the extent of any exodus after any initial spike will depend on the extent of that spike and the state of the company in May/June.

Emis, nobody would keep their money in a small cap if they believed the sort of things the below poster is blabbering on about day after day. Nobody holds on stomaching such a loss like this in an attempt to oust owners with a shareholding as large as the Poddars have.

Disgruntled ex holder badly wanting to see the company failure.

Sahid, there is, it's called 'Invinity Energy Systems' although there is more IES related info posted on BMN telegram groups than there is on the IES specific group. So doesn't really add much value.

I take that to mean it’s not material in terms of having any effect on strategy, on capital allocation or on Novacyt’s ability to continue as a going concern.

I’m sure it will still be divested but the timing, ie now, has an immaterial impact on operations.

Yes but it's never been very active.

Incredibly low. We're talking 20000 shares traded a day.

Total stalemate until we get the January update either later this week or Monday. CPO prices remain healthy so fingers crossed for a solid start to the year.

New seven year low for Largo - this is a combination of operational failures and sector-wide struggles.

Just one day after my post yesterday we get an update from NextSource. Remember in June they produced the first tonne of graphite at their mine with the expectation of commercial shipping to follow in the months ahead? Well today, seven and a half months on we have this update: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1040183/nextsource-materials-advances-commissioning-of-molo-graphite-mine-in-madagascar-1040183.html

Just 60T produced so far and 'On its revised schedule, NextSource said it expects its first commercial shipment and sale of SuperFlake concentrate under offtake agreements starting in June.' God knows when there'll be anywhere close to the 17000T nameplate capacity.

That's irrelevant to my post Trevor. I think in general it's best to go with the facts given to you by the company rather than invest based on the feelings of other posters. As it turned out, like I just said, those that went with their gut rather than the facts at the time have had the best result, but when you made that post in June the health of the company as presented by Fortune was not the reality.

It's been very difficult to exit at a reasonable price because things turned south very quick and the actual health of the business was hidden from investors.

In March/April V was $41/kgV and guidance remained at 4200mtV-4500mtV, that's $178m revs at midpoint.

V started to fall, by about 15%, but guidance was reiterated in Fortune's last rns as CEO. That still meant a run rate of ~$153m revs and with an up-to-date cash figure omitted from the update there was no way for investors to know just how bad things were behind the scenes, with those selling doing it on instinct alone. As it turned out BMN were almost out of cash at the time of the June 21st update but that was totally obscured.

In Craig's first major update on 2nd August we get the big production downgrade which suddenly illuminates what problems BMN face. The days following were the last chance to exit close to 3p but I guess most were impressed with Craig enough to place that ahead of the financial and plant difficulties plus V had settled at a manageable $35/kgV average selling price.

Since, Craig's had to deal with a further 20% fall in V price, with the plummet in US price the most difficult to absorb. As things stand we're at a run rate of ~ $115m, a whole $60m less than last March/April yet with identical cash costs. Additionally he's been uncovering further issues with the plants and then to top it all off this SPR debacle.

From what appeared like reasonable health to on the edge in lightning fast time.

That's very true, especially as difficulty hits another all time high... I reckon Argo has about four months realistically in order to survive, two months prior to the halving and two months after. Within those four months we need to see a truly meaningful move in bitcoin so that the Argo share price reacts sharply and there's enough momentum to get a sizeable raise away - at least double the $9.9m achieved a month ago.

Break even for Argo must be around $5.5m revs, right? Difficulty and BTC being equal we're looking at between $2.75m and $3m revs come April, therefore a significant monthly cash burn. Either difficulty needs to plummet following the halving or BTC rally or it's really hard to see a way out of this situation.

A consensus? No, there's just thousands of opinions.

Certainly not the momentum buildng RNS they needed as we draw closer to April and the halving.

Still time for one big pump before then but time is slowly ticking away.

Syrah only produced 94T this year which is far lower than the 163T produced in 2022.

In terms of the other listed companies Northern Graphite hasn't produced any graphite since closing their mine at the end of Q1, having produced 2966T that quarter. They finished that quarter with a stockpile of 9896T which they have been selling down all year and will be at around 2000T now (yet to release their Q4). The most recent plans are to restart the mine in 'Spring 2024'

Next Source said this in April in relation to their 17000Tpa Molo mine: 'Commissioning is expected to be completed in May 2023 with a ramp up period of up to three months prior to declaring commercial production.'

Then in June they announce the first tonne of graphite produced but in a SEDAR filing in late September issues and concerns were raised and there were no signs of any commercial shipments in Q3 so we await to see if they finally started producing when they release their next quarterlies in the coming weeks.

All in all very little production from listed graphite companies - TGR is doing okay in comparison.

Very interesting, thank you Andii.

And yeah a stark difference for example over the past twelve months of the smallest flake (~25% down) vs the large/jumbo flake (at most 5% down).