Member Info for HarChris

I know things are tough right now and there’s no love for this sector but I refuse to believe the company is actually in a bad state - virtually debt free, production reaching a sizeable level (could soon be at 20000Tpa), green energy transition not slowing down, huge permitted assets secured etc etc

We had Batteey Minerals taking shares at 52.6p not that long ago and then, frustratingly, directors and institutions getting in at 11p so I will continue to believe that adding at 9p will prove to be a very rewarding decision.

I’m one of the more positive here but it’s not as simple as that… before a single nut was picked there wasn’t a sizeable debt so risk remained low - we’re now at a much riskier point where further funding will be extremely hard to come by so fail to generate the cash to fund the cashew operation to profitability and to meet all debt repayments/ maturity and the business’ future is in doubt - make it through successfully and that broker target ends up in sight.

Still, I think the risk is more than worth it so have built a meaningful stake with a low average, obviously those that have suffered the most from years of operational failures and missteps are going to be a hell of a lot more oissed off than I am right now.

Still, I accept that I could lose my money and that’s a fact of AIM investing generally.

It's frustrating that POG had to go and fall back like it did yesterday, the set up here couldn't have been better.

The continued rise to 52 weeks highs despite the fall to sub $2000/oz shows the strength still.

Https://twitter.com/Tirupatiuk/status/1757662326596018631

This feels like the build up to the operational update.

The big risk when it comes to sustained share price weakness like this is dilution, the threat of being diluted out of oblivion.

Sadly the time came recently when cash was needed and so a raise has taken place down at these levels but fortunately the Madagascar operations are not cash-hungry, if anything they are break even now so only a very modest amount of dilution took place to cover CLN payments and help stabilise production at 1500tpm, buying TGR time for (i) the £1m vat payment, (ii) sentiment/graphite prices to improve (iii) a debt deal on better terms

If the share price was to stay down at this level for another twelve months or so we'd see chronic long term problems but for now it's still a short term paper loss for holders with a significant rerate still on the cards when improvements are seen.

That sales price yesterday was a blow, especially after having tracked the international price so closely of late (pushing on for 4000MYR) - a more thorough explanation would have eased some uncertainty but alas, we wait for Feb.

No one's responded to my point though.

In the last update Greg said: 'I am pleased to report that the collaboration continues to deliver excellent results, based on the stand-out performance of the combined commercial team, which has produced consistent and strong sequential prescription growth and key performance indicators (KPI), which are trending towards previous guidance'

Why towards *previous* guidance and not just guidance or revised guidance? Surely that suggests actual growth is greater than the new revised guidance and we might end up seeing close to the 125k prescriptions we were initially guided???

I believe so. Christian is still involved as the ceo of Optiva, TGRs broker, and having been in Madagascar during the recent site visit: https://twitter.com/Christi44179982/status/1757274125704253879

That tweet was his first in a couple of months.

Myles gets interviews and private meetings with loads of AIM ceos, he's always mentioning 'a sit down' with this person or that person. It's never usually a big deal but for some reason when it comes to Avacta everything is magnified and blown out of all proportion.

You could call it a non refundable deposit.

Not exactly hxul. From what I understand it's non refundable *if* SPR don't come good on the rest of the money. If they do pay the rest then the $2m (and the other $10.5m) is converted into shares - i.e not a gift.

Come on Joberalo you must be smarter than that.

For a start that link has Christian Dennis also between 25 and 50 percent, do you think Shishir, Hermant and Christian together own something like 98%?! ha Christian Dennis has been the Optiva ceo for well over a decade, he never had that many shares in TGR. I believe he holds 1.3m hence around 1% of the company.

Also look at the dates, they are old. Notified on the 19th July 2017, this was four years before TGR listed. It's evidently incorrect so if you're interested in the facts go with the most recent rns as Cigam keeps referring to.

Who remembers September? In the run up to the interims the share price rallied to more than 12.5p, crashing back down only just before the raise was announced. Now with a placing, because of third party brokers and bankers involved, leaks happen, but the point is the market had it completely wrong until just an hour or so before that funding was announced.

The sell off is simply in line with the small caps everywhere, I wouldn't read anything more into it than that.

Jk I wouldn't expect a change in broker target due to one month of lower pricing but would if it continues, it's definitely a shame considering the strong international prices.

We have to remember that there are thousands of small cap companies that are at historic lows and therefore there is competition for investment... those on the sidelines may view DKL as undervalued but if there's no obvious catalyst they aren't going to feel rushed to buy in.

Today's update wasn't that catalyst.

Nonstop buying from you Amers, very bold - you definitely hold more shares than me now!

It's absolutely wild that you have the likes of ITM able to raise £420m over 2020 and 2021 and what they have to show for it is £4m revs in 2021, £5.6m revs in 2022 and £5.23m revs in 2023 (£101m loss) and here we have IES who has seen revenues increase 500% over the past year to ~£21.6m yet are seemingly struggling to even raise as much as they have received in grants from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero...

The difference in private sector funding since 2020/21 is, as I said, wild.

To paraphrase Will Smith ‘keep my name out of your goddamn mouth!’ Ha but on a serious note your nonstop deranged thread titles speak for themselves, there is no way to respond because you are devoting more energy and time than I or suspect any of the holders here can and so you win out on the spamming front alone.

As for all these accusations - for me the fact that Shishir was willing to sit down with any individual that could meet him in London does not strike me as someone that would then go and actively defraud those very people. He seems like an incredibly hard working family man in the traditional industrialist mould and is doing his utmost in what is a very challenging industry and climate right now.

One trade of £46 lol back to stalemate.

Yes rivaldo I would put the sell off in 2023 down to the risks that come with high debt vs very low cash position, especially in this environment. The big positive since is that the company has been able to pay down debt and avoid having to raise so cash must be being generated at decent levels right now.

Like you say the cashew operation needs to be adding to that cash generation, not depleting it, for the debt risk to dissipate but for now things appear to be ticking over reasonably. Got to hope for the sales price to trend back towards int. price too.

Yes Shishir and family have spent a lifetime in the graphite industry, obviously there are plenty of companies associated with him and his family over those decades.