Member Info for HarChris

Nonsense, trust is well and truly shot now. STX need two things to be successful, prescription growth to match or at least come close to the projections from 2023 through to 2025 and for the average net selling price to increase substantially.

Results on the prescription side were as bad as it could possibly be. Having intimated that (revised) guidance would be met that left us expecting 50000 prescriptions but understanding if it falls just short, at say low 40s... 22000 is appealing considering this was when the full salesforce were trained up and ready to really accelerate sales.

If there was a sign that the average net selling price was going in the right direction that would at least offer a ray of light but having been informed of a $148 price in Q3 the total of $145 for H2 is in the wrong direction.

Could they still get back on track and end up turning things around for those still holding? Sure, it's possible but it's looking rather unlikely to me. Big cash raise comes next and that will bring the potential upside right down even if they were to execute better going forward.

"Without tearing the whole of Crocqmans post apart I will highlight one more word for word comment which states - and I quote from Shishir- "you will see we have sold whatever we have produced" So why is the company on life support? Why is the company skint? Might it be that Pranagraf have a lot of our profits? which is one of your "other" companies Shishir? DYOR"

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This just proves you have no idea about the graphite space, probably because you are singly focused on TGR. If you really think TGR should have seen the cash rolling in with their £3.1m revs in H1 then it's time you did more research and look across the graphite space to see how that compares. There was only 25% gross margin in H1, no small cap ramping up production is ever going to be profitable at such revs/margin. Sales were just 4785MT, we should be producing double that per quarter and when mgmt drive through that improvement margins will improve again and profitability in Madagascar will be reached - come anywhere close to doubling that again (i.e anything close to 36000MTpa) and we'll be in business.

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Boris my main comfort is that the Poddars own so much of TGR already so any manipulation to the detriment of PIs is also manipulation to them.

And a big thankyou to Croqman, I might repost your comments after a bit of a lull so it's at the top of the page again for all to read - it would be better if others could just sit with it a bit and perhaps email the company the very specific questions they have rather than put more and more questions to PIs on here who obviously can't answer them.

Previous guidance was 125000-160000 prescriptions, by saying 'trending towards previous guidance' you're hinting that you're well into the 100s of thousands with just one quarter to go which equals a very big quarter.

Actual result - 77000 and the lowest growth QoQ

Just two months ago:

'I am pleased to report that the collaboration continues to deliver excellent results, based on the stand-out performance of the combined commercial team, which has produced consistent and strong sequential prescription growth and key performance indicators (KPI), which are trending towards previous guidance. In addition, we have made positive strides towards our goal of increasing our average net selling price and expect further progress in 2024.'

Yet they knew October and some of November's numbers already - shocking deception.

Or alternatively a possible election incentives the DHSC to get on with sorting a settlement from now...

What right does the department have to just delay a high court hearing? None.

Trust was already waning but this has to be the final straw - will take eons of time to recover.

"Cavendish 'total reported revenues and income were $17.5m (our forecast $16m) in 2023 vs $5.5m in 2022."

That's the only bit of good news + the cash position is healthy. Otherwise, shocker.

Also worth highlighting that production was almost 2500 ounces greater than sales this year meaning there's at least that much gold bullion waiting to be sold above $2000/oz = $5m more cash in the bank.

To be able to double production without any threat of a cash raise whatsoever is as strong a position as you could ask for.

Https://www.serabigold.com/investors/investment-case/#near-term-growth

Already net cash positive with virtually no debt and $11.6m cash. Guidance for this year 38000-40000 Oz at I would imagine an AISC of ~$1450-$1500, Just $15m capex needed to reach 60000Oz from Q4 25/Q1 2026 at an AISC sub $1400 so almost certainly able to self fund to such a level (+$5m credit facility if needed)>

That will be around $30m EBITDA at $2000/oz POG and at $2300 (by 2026) more like $50m against a valuation of $50m today? And there's significant potential benefit to be seen from the Vale partnership.

Incredibly low risk in such a gold environment.

Certainly a very determined seller today, let's hope their reasons for selling are unrelated to the upcoming rns.

It's the third new account that posts exclusively in BSFA and BMN, what a coincidence.

Well it seems like someone else agrees and wants in before the next update, well over 200k shares / £50k has been bought in six or so transactions this morning.

‘ Should be over 3% soon 🔜’ is what he said on Telegram which suggests he stopped selling after that 30m sell and is slowly buying them back.

I certainly don’t take his word as gospel, just sharing what he said.

Kamran said at the weekend he’ll be over 3% again soon so it’s probably him.

Yeah my point is this is nothing like last time, the sell off was acute at the end of the business day prior to the placing was announced, this is a drip drip sell off which is in line with the rest of the stock market.

Does it fill me with confidence that the update is going to blow us away? Definitely not but it's also unreasonable to read into it anymore than that.

Most likely we see 40k prescriptions, growth on track but the market shrugs its shoulders.

Besides the placing last time which is an impossible thing to keep in-house how leaky is STX? Volume is rather low with only one trading day out of the last six reaching 1m shares traded so there's certainly no rush for the exit?

Isn't it more likely it's just one large holder wanting out? In this market anything but unequivocally good news leads to a sell down so much of it is probably just prudent risk averse trading right now.

Good post, largely articulated what I was trying to say.

Take the Argo share price at the start of February. Due to the retrace and length of time in the 13-15p range it was itching for a big move one way or the other. All it took was BTC to push through $42k and within a few trading sessions Argo rallied about 65%.

Now we're in a position where we need to see BTC push on from $52k and even then probably break $55k for the Argo share price to catch alight again. Possible sure but an unfavourable R/R.

Now as it finds a range

We are talking hundreds of GWh of storage to be deployed across Europe and the Americas in the years ahead and we have Invinity and their vrfbs as one of the best placed non lithium alternatives globally.

Personally think we're going to look back in a year's time and see this as the opportunity to load up before it really takes off.

No that's not the point at all. The time to buy Argo is when there's enough interest and eyes on it that it outpaces any rise in BTC, the time to avoid is when the opposite is true.

The share price has run out of steam and is far more likely to fall now, with the next move north starting from a much lower base.

Shishir set a bit of a precedent by making himself so available in the early years of listing. When all was going okay I'm sure the correspondence was easy to keep up with but once things started to go south suddenly it must become overwhelming with panicked shareholders (I include myself here) sending emails left right and centre and demanding answers.

That will have been why he agreed to the one-to-one meetings in September but seeing as the share price has only soured since that hasn't proved the solution he was hoping it to be - if anything it's probably angered some even more as those that spoke to him were reassured that everything was on track and the share price at the time, 20p ish, was no reflection of true performance and progress.

But like you Cigam, I couldn't care less that my most recent email hasn't been answered if that time is instead spent steering the ship back on course here because ultimately that's what matters.