Member Info for HarChris

There’s been one reported trade so far of £150 so perhaps that’s the massive dumping you were referring to?

Doesn’t that sum you up perfectly? Absolutely no knowledge of what’s going on but saw what looked like a big drop and rushed on to (un)inform everyone?

It’s just a wide advertised spread, buy price is the same as yesterday but don't let a (negative) headline get in the way of the truth.

Dump? There's not been a single trade on the LSE yet today.

The commentary on these bb gets worse by the day.

You’d also have made money if after complaining for the hundredth time on here you’d sold half and put that half into Rolls Royce, basically anytime in 2021. Instead you had the ‘I can’t sell for a loss’ mentality which saw your losses balloon.

There was still an exit price to have above 400p after the dispute with the DHSC was announced. Perhaps it’s not all luck but sometimes skill, knowledge and instinct too that leads to long term positive returns?

I love the confident talk re funding. Gives no sense that PIs are going to be involved in anyway or that it’s a struggle despite how difficult other companies are finding refinancing at this time. No instead we get the picture of partners chomping at the bit to take a stake at this important juncture.

Larry said last year that 2023 was Invinity’s year but I’m starting to think he was just out by twelve months.

Obviously i'm ignoring how well funded they are, the expansion of their downstream, the enormous production potential if graphite prices rise etc but in terms of being a short target at $400AUD market cap, yeah I can see why.

For a bit of context Syrah burnt through $22m cash in the last quarter alone and are looking at a loss of around $100m for the year I think.

Now compare with TGR - they started this financial year (mar 31st) with £290k and have since raised just £1m and covered a £220k CLN payment with shares, so the cash burn for the whole year will be £1m-£1.5m and that's with grossly missed targets. Hit 15000tpa in Madagascar and cash generation will start, get close to 30000tpa and it will be flying in, especially with some uplift in basket price.

Apples and oranges.

The management have been well and truly found out this time around. Missed targets were forgiven numerous times but this was the straw that broke the camel's back and what with the debt taken on at the back end of 2023 coupled with the weakness in share price this has become incredibly high risk.

They have probably one more quarter to showcase a major operational turnaround otherwise it's dilution to oblivion to steer things back on track. The fall and lack of dead cat bounce even is rather telling.

We're in the lull once again, happens a few times a year with Novacyt. Share price trickles down for weeks on end before a sudden increase in volume has all the traders wondering if there's a leak or some such and the price almost doubles in a short number of trading sessions.

And no, the fall is based on the teeniest of volume.

Isn't this more of a departmental issue rather than government? The idea that the government is going to be fighting tooth and nail is an odd one to me, I doubt anyone in the government bar the Secretary of State for Health is even aware of it.

There will almost certainly be no major press coverage whatever the outcome, the sums are really quite small in the grand scheme of things (£100m vs £180 billion dhsc budget) and the previous settlements were merely tumbleweed in a couple of online editions of newspapers at a time when covid was still in the news cycle.

And there's less of a scandal narrative here unlike with went on with PPE procurement, especially as it's going to come down to technical legalise rather than obvious wholesale administrative failure and malpractice.

And the same with me mcsquares. Whilst it's been a thoroughly tough and disappointing twelve months I still consider TGR low risk as they have virtually no debt and considering the uninspiring operational progress and low graphite price this year continue to display considerable resourcefulness - as shown by only raising £1m recently for example. The cash burn really is modest and points to considerable cash generation once TGR is able to ramp production anywhere close to 30ktpa alongside a basket price of £800+

Not a whole lot needs to go right to make healthy returns from 9p.

Saluc that's so true, this poster seems to have absolutely no idea of the wider graphite space with comments such as 'where are TGRs profits going? How can there be no cash?!

Anyone clued up would know full well why TGR is/was cash strapped and it's not because huge profits are being funnelled elsewhere.

Also in the camp that think's there will be a settlement beforehand but I might pop along and have a watch if it does go ahead.

Mhow my guess would be that Q3 remained difficult operationally with minimal uplift, if any, in production. That would be no shock with the share price where it is... I'd also assume that some other news is close to landing, whether that be a debt package for the PCUs to address head grade issues, boosting production towards 30ktpa and also for the further 6ktpa capacity increase.

Now the placing is out the way the share price isn't as important for the time being so it's probably better to get everything lined up before going on a news offensive. First communications online and then via rns.

Stopthebs, the broker note points to a couple of other companies that saw their market cap explode 39X on average as examples of what could happen to ARCM if there's a significant discovery.

Obviously each case is individual and the market's tough right now and also that's market cap, not share price, (some dilution would come with it) but it's at least reasonable to think 10X from here is a possibility I'd have thought?

That's what's drawing me in. Minimised risk to the downside now, attractive base case (6p-9p?) and a blue sky upside if all goes well.

Sorry I think you misunderstood me. I responding to Major Tom's post which alluded to a placing being needed every year. I question it saying I believed one meaningful placing, especially if drill results have already firmed up the market cap, should be enough to see Arc through *in addition *to $7.37m within 30 months.

No those £450k payments won't get them far but a placing later in 2024 should hopefully get them though to the end of phase one and the extra $5.4m (0.66x$8m payment) and then one final $0.67m

Isn't it a better tactic to pay fees here and there in shares and keep the cash balance healthy until drill results are out if the likes of SP Angel are happy taking shares? I note Arc issued 6 million shares 'to certain creditors' in November yet they were receiving that first tranche of cash at around the same date so there's precedence that disproves the argument that issuing shares equals no cash remaining.

''Looking beyond 2024 funding I fully expect that once AA ramp up exploration activities in Zambia we should see a decent sustained rise in Arcs valuation. How much of rise we see in the SP will IMO depned on how much future dilution we see over the term of the JV. Dilution of between 6% and 15% in 2024 may not be an issue. However the prospect of continued dilution in 2025, 26, 27, 28, 29 etc. etc. may result in the inevitable increase in the companies valuation not being reflected in the share price.''

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So Arc had £2.35m = ~$3m as of June 30th. Even if we assume all of that was already spoken for Arc then received $3.5m x 0.67 = $2.35m upon signing of the JV documents so I see no reason why there would be any need for cash imminently???

Obviously at some point a cash raise will be needed but if as I've suggested there's (i) no rush and (ii) enough is raised to see Arc well into 2025 they then look forward to receiving $11m x 0.67 = $7.37m within the next 30 months, right? So the prospect of needing cash year after year is not necessarily true - one cash raise could see them potentially through to 2026 or later if they avoid committing too much to Botswana drilling. And if the phase one exploration delivers then those concerns will be taking place at 10p (worrying if it's going to fall back to 8p, or 7.5p, for example) and not one's to be thinking about at 2.2p.

Let's say the truth lies somewhere in between and that financing will be needed to see Arc through 2024 around the £1.7m mark and let's also assume the management are thinking longer term and are wanting to put all future placing talk to bed and so look to raise £3.5m, ensuring funding well into 2025. From where I'm standing Arc is in a very healthy position having agreed an excellent JV deal with Anglo and being debt free but the share price has retraced to 52 week lows due to a large holding beinf forced to sell and these placing fears.

I see no reason why a serious II looking to gain relatively low risk exposure to copper wouldn't be willing to buy in at a premium at around 2.5p today, or if strong drilling results are out first to take 5% of the company around the 3.5p mark. With such a credible mining giant Anglo as a partner and the outlook for copper over the next 2, 3 5 years I see no reason why the management couldn't pull off a good deal on this front too - and would also be an ideal time for certain directors to dig into their pockets as well.

Fulmar, I linked that video in my initial reply to you and said it was my starting off point!

Thanks to the two of you, you've been helpful. I watched the IG interview with Nick post JV finalisation and it's uber positive. I have also got hold of the latest WH Ireland note so I should be quite up to date once I'm through that.

And that info re Swedish teachers pension fund is useful, very much appreciate that and at least somewhat explains the extent of the retrace then - guess it means the further selling might still be enough to drag the share price even lower but I'm not interested in trying to predict the bottom, will only mean missing out.