Member Info for HarChris

$2100 and not a single comment on here. Strange times.

That's true also but the better way to look at it is not from the new venture standpoint but as a TO from other miners, i.e would another miner choose to take over Argo or just buy and install a few EH/s worth of machines? It's obviously the latter hence not a target.

CLSK you haven't mentioned the debt either. Whatever price you pay for Argo you also take on $70m debt so say you attempted a buyout at today's valuation, $135m, it really means it's costing $205m (minus perhaps $5m cash).

That's a lot more expensive than the $64m for the same set up with brand new machines.

Generally speaking I don't think IIs care about the very short term so I don't think the share price decline will be of as much concern to them as to some of us. The reasons we are at 6.5p will be of more concern to them though, PIs have been unnerved to the point of selling down to a quarter of TGRs net asset value, and that falls at the feet of management (of course its partly wider market related, graphite space etc).

I wish I'd reduced my exposure by I haven't so i'm looking at it from the perspective of 6.5p. We need that update which is supposedly being released any day but the placing proceeds should put to bed any fears over the CLN coupons through 2024 (Jan's already paid, July to come) and we investors need to hope that the rest of the funds see TGR reach beyond the break even level of production so that the outlook is transformed.

As a reminder from the most recent Going Concern statement:

'For the period under reporting, the Company achieved 170% growth in revenues and 106% increase in operating gross profits and is engaged in ramping up production so as to reach a level of breakeven monthly production and sale that is estimated to be about 1000 to 1200 tons per month as against current levels of 700-800 tons per month and is engaged in raising funds for meeting its working capital needs as also for further developments.'

The placing came after this and stated that the funds should help them reach production at 1500tpm as an 'immediate target', i.e higher than break even level.

Just imagine the difficult spot TGR would be in now if they hadn't bit the bullet in Jan when they did?

Actually equity raises are where Shishir has without doubt excelled. How often do we see leaks and share price implosions when it comes to raises, especially in the current climate? Yet TGR do manage to get their's away swiftly and at a modest discount relative to wider market placings.

As for the other point... without doubt governance failures have played a major role in getting to where we are today.

Whether or not Kamran Sattar holds shares or not is absolutely no indication of BMNs chances of success - his track record is mixed to say the very least.

Plazahot they can attempt to take TGR private at any price they want but they would need a lot of votes from PIs to get it over the line so yeah, we’d probably be looking at 10-15p which would be a big crystallised loss for virtually all holders.

'Dilute shareholders out of existence'

The reason they won't do that if they can avoid it is because they themselves are by the far the largest holders. They have every incentive to turn this around even if so far they're making a bit of a hash of it.

We'd have seen a big further sell off today if the share price hadn't already eroded to such a ridiculous degree, at least there's that! News tomorrow I reckon.

I suspect we are entering never before seen margins territory for Serabi now. What with that fact, the recent three year extension of the trial mining license, the positive findings from recent exploration at Palito as well as potential news due from Matilda/Vale partnership I'd be keeping my eye on that five year high of 119p now.

Well if I happen to be in Lisbon during this year's Bilderberg meeting I'll make sure to look out for the SA crew - Coltman, Garnet, Borromeo. And if I miss that there's always Davos.

It's enough to reach 1500-2000tpm, according to the management. They've got to achieve this before the market responds and the financing options open up again.

Mhow it's pretty obvious that 2000tpm wasn't achieved in Q3, that is not info that this mgmt team would hold back so long. The big clue is in the placing rns in Jan - 'The Company remains engaged to increase its production in Madagascar with immediate target to reach 1,500 tons per month output and expand its markets in light of growing opportunities.'

A few points to note though. The share price was 16.5p at the time of the interims so there's a lot less priced in now. Also 2000tpm wasn't the target for Q3, the actual targets were given in the q2 update:

'In H2 FY 24, the Company estimates base case production of 7,500 tons though working towards reaching 10,000 tons, given the limitations of head grade. '

So with the additional funds anything from 3000t for the quarter or higher would keep tgr on track to meet the base case target.

In terms of actual cash in the bank, whilst modest, TGR will for the first time in a long while actually have a bit of breathing space.

Cash as of March 31st - £290k

Cash as of Sept 30th - £125k

Presumedly that goes right down to close to zero before £1.05m raise on Jan 17th.

Mayu we're all entitled to an opinion but at least keep it factual. By stating 'there is nothing left to sell off' you're implying that everything has been flogged already to keep TGR afloat and still we are where we are, which isn't true at all. Nothing had been sold, TGR have one of the largest production setups outside of China in Madagascar and have promising assets from the Suni acquisition, with Montepuez construction ready. TGR would almost certainly get close to today's market cap if they chose to sell that asset alone and continue with a smaller operation in Madagascar, for example.

Anyway we're due an update very soon, I'll reserve judgement for that.

Having just read the broker note here's a few observations for those looking in here.

Target price 30p based on 97500 ounces in 2024 at an average gold price of $2020/oz and AISC of $1144/oz

A further 5p to be added to the valuation per year of mine life extension (1-2 years expected) announced March/April (with some production uplift included alongside for 2025 and 2026).

Other catalysts include Douta PFS which is expected this month (Q1), lithium drilling results expected later this year, Q1 results showing solid start to the year in April and a shift from net debt to net cash.

__________________

All looking good as gold threatens to smash through all time highs.

If it is indeed the Swedish pension fund that is finishing off that’s ideal, the last thing you want is a big seller expecting news and waiting for that liquidity event to sell.

What you want is buyers massively outweighing any selling demand when news lands and MMs forced to keep lifting the bid higher and higher to find any takers. It feels like that event is close here.

I am talking from a financial perspective, a lot of companies are going to the wall now because in this market their mcap has shrunk, access to funding has dried up and they've taken on too much debt and can't now meet those repayments. From that perspective TGR are fine and have the time and resources (thanks to shareholders at a much higher price, albeit) to turn things around.

If the claims you make are true, that Shishir is trying to take TGR private on the cheap, then what i'm posting isn't relevant. Obviously I'm not privy to that so was just responding to the poster implying that TGR will go out of business, which is very unlikely with their assets vs liabilities.

Have a good weekend, I need a break from here!

And to highlight how low this sell off has taken this one is reminded that TGR is owed more than £1m in VAT rebate from the Madagascan authorities, a sum that could pay off 50% of TGRs total debt burden alone/ leaving them with no debt to pay until mid 2025.

The resignations and corporate governance, the silence, none of it is good but the fact that the vast majority of cash raised since IPO was in the form of equity at many times today's valuation means that current prospective buyers are getting an awful lot of shares per £1 spent for a slice of a company that has plenty of time to get its house in order.

Right now all TGR has to do continue in operation is to pay its CLN coupon + interest, so around £400k twice yearly for a total of ~£2m now.

TGRs future is not at risk but the growth story is certainly in trouble at the moment and relies on them reaching the 1500-2000tpm that they should be able to reach with the funds from the most recent placing. Do that, especially against a healthier graphite backdrop through 2024, and options will open up once again. Fail to do that and we might be talking selling Mozambique assets to fund a smaller cash generating operation in Madagascar.

With minimal debt backed up against considerable assets (30ktpa capacity in Mad + Moz) it's too soon to be majorly concerned but the market is crying out for more info and as of now that's being withheld from us. Not a good look and will require explanation when Shishir finally decides to go on the communication offensive.