Member Info for HarChris

Well if that is your point it's a good job Novacyt has such a sound balance sheet, I'm pretty sure with £44.1m cash and no debt they'll be able to handle it dragging on longer if (and I think it's rather unlikely) that turned out to be the case - and hopefully all of that would eventually be factored into the end result re compensation.

A bit of research would show you that the government loses case after case. And again, this is the DHSC against Novacyt, it's going to make zero difference to the election result - the only people that will even know are those that read the financial section of The Times.

This won't even be on the government's radar, it is not a huge case whatsoever. The total healthcare budget is around £180B, if they end up paying £0.08B to Novacyt it won't even register.

I'll give you some further context.

At the weekend I was reading through the last Yourgene broker note in late 2022 before they were forced to do a deeply discounted placing. The market cap of YG at that time was £60m with a target of £100m. Now the target price is a bit irrelevant but before they ran out of cash the market was still placing a value of £60m on YG.

Is it therefore farfetched for the combined entity of Yourgene-Novacyt, debt free and with £47m cash (your example) to be valued a little above what YG was valued alone not so long ago? Of course not.

Yes. Like you keep repeating the dhsc dispute is a risk that’s weighing heavily on the company, have it removed and a a doubling from 50p is reasonable.

Further cash added from a win or partial win and start to show some positive results from all the investment and cost cutting measures that have been taking place and it’ll go far higher than that.

More risky than two years ago when THX spiked to 19.5p, Segilola and mining in Nigeria was unproven and net debt was $40m? Vs today at 13.5p with a couple of years of successful operations under their belt, improved guidance for this year, gold at all time highs and THX about to go net cash positive?

It's happened far too many times for it to be a coincidence, John must hold back news like this so that it's released when sentiment has been boosted.

It's not definitely going to court, everyone here pretty much agreed from a year ago that a settlement, if it were to happen, would come in the months running up to the court case. Which is now, and over the next couple of months.

I'm still confident of a settlement being reached.

Well CS no matter how those scenarios eventually play out the immediate term effect will be a considerable rally in the share price, to £1+ as GLTader pointed out so that’s the most relevant thing for those at 40p taking the risk and holding for the outcome.

How it actually plays out longer term is far harder to predict.

Yup for sure and amidst so much geopolitical upheaval they are about the only attractive trades right now, alongside other commodities like copper. I loaded up on gold miners but despite the predictions I didn't think we'd see gold keep going up, it's mad when you realise it's market cap is already something like $15T.

I don't own any gold, far too boring and risk averse for me but the gold miners trade at such low multiple (they do come with quite a bit of risk though, especially jurisdiction risk)

Don't forget to get some gold exposure, it's holding at all time highs as bitcoin pulls back a bit.

One of the goldies i'm invested in will post $90m profits (before reinvestment) if POG stays where it is now, against an mcap of $100m, and is fully cashed up with minimal debt... And still no one even pays attention.

Fair enough clsk but the first sign of pullback there and the miners sha* themselves, so there's obviously more of a potential sell off to come if BTC can't hold here. Not that i'm really following the US miners right now.

The stuffing is certainly well and truly knocked out of argo now, in this case any significant retrace and it really could get bloody.

The way I look at it:

~£8m mcap before 2020 and covid, with multiple times more debt than cash in bank.

All debt written off, tens of millions invested into R&D, dramatic change in international brand recognition, £20m acquisition of YG inc debt write off, 6 months post integration of YG and NCYT, £44.1m still in bank, +£8m if DHSC dispute is settled neutrally.

Total increase for all of the above? £23m.

Fascinating to see.

I wonder now if we see a quite hefty pullback and a painful repricing for the miners?

There has been no director buys (or sells) including those that have joined the board in the past six months…that points to an elongated closed period.

That’s hardly surprising with the numbers involved re the dhsc dispute.

Gold has an inverse/negative correlation with interest rates... the fact that POG is at all time highs even before the FED starts cutting shows just how attractive gold is becoming in what is a very uncertain geopolitical backdrop - the sky's the limit once the cutting starts, I wouldn't rule out $2500/oz later in 2024.

Ironically what's killed them is the rationality over the past few weeks, the unwillingness for investors to just chase this all the way up 'because it's the only LSE based crypto option'

If that rationality hadn't kicked in we could be talking 45p share price now with this placing cycle to buy more time continuing.

Because the buy price was 5% to 10% higher than the placing price yesterday and the preceding days there will almost certainly have been substantial interest from non holders knowing they can just take shares at 50p and flip immediately for profit, or choose to simply hold from the lowest entry possible.

That extra cash just isn't needed so i'm very glad they chose to just go with existing holders.

Hexam you have to give it to Argo, they've done everything that can over the past six months or so to manage to survive but the truth is that debt has come down from the proceeds of another placing and an asset sale.

Next month they'll still have $55m debt and will post ~105 BTC, the following month they'll still have $55m debt and will mint something like 50-55 new coins. At that point if BTC isn't above $100k it's curtains.

Are you serious? You ignored what was posted previously, the going concern from the half yearly results from December.

''For the period under reporting, the Company achieved 170% growth in revenues and 106% increase in operating gross profits and is engaged in ramping up production so as to reach a level of breakeven monthly production and sale that is estimated to be about 1000 to 1200 tons per month as against current levels of 700-800 tons per month and is engaged in raising funds for meeting its working capital needs as also for further developments.'

1000-1200tpm is quite clearly achievable, so is more than that. You are acting like this is a business burning tens of millions of pounds and needing funding, it's not. Tgr burnt through £125k in h1 and that was with just 797t sales per month. They've now raise £1m since. It needs considerable funding to develop the Mozambique projects but not for carrying out its current operational ramp up in Madagascar. So it can obviously demonstrate going concern.