Member Info for HarChris

On the topic of ABDX they just put out their interims - have nine months of cash remaining (from 1st Jan) but forecasting cash break even by the end of 2024. Such fine lines now between success and failure in this climate, if they are telling the truth about reaching break even and not just claiming that to bolster their ability to raise.

Completely agree about Oxford Biodynamics Kaeren, really worth a deep dive into their company although I don’t think it likely that Novacyt end up acquiring them - YG will probably be the biggest and they’ll be looking at bolt on acquisitions instead.

Take a look at Abdx though, promising product and a growing business and another running out of cash - gone from £30m mcap a few years back to just £8m now. They’ll probably end up sinking another 50% so could be picked up for around that price (£8m) later this year.

Nout to be worried about on this front for now, it appears to be a very specific part of northern Moz. Also the likes of Syrah and many other miners adjacent to TGRs as of yet undeveloped assets aren’t having any issues.

‘Additionally, heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Cabo Delgado region, where some of its concessions are located, and the ban on exports of local wood, have further contributed to this strategic decision. ’

Absolutely, that’s why we’re at 5p.

All it will take is some operational improvements and signs of management listening (one can hope!) and this turns quick - still prefer that position than being a £4m company with no history of success attempting to raise nearly $40m - ie a near impossible task in this climate.

Another competitor forced to raise at a lower and lower price. Started 2024 at 28p a share, just announced a placing @ 9p a share for ~£10.5m.

OBD will have a market cap of ~£28m, with just the cash they raise (£10.5m?) and revenues of £0.5m a year and a cash burn of £10m a year (£10m operating loss two years in a row).

And still they get investment for the potential of their tech - remember that when knowledgeable YG holders tell us that their Ranger tech is going to be worth hundreds of millions in the future. Novacyt have years to reach profitability with their cash position and likely increased cash position following the dispute.

Well if all higher than expected US inflation can do to gold is push it down to $2157/oz then god knows how high this might go when the Fed starts cutting.

That's right, yet to produce any revenue and have £300k cash as of June so now just over £100k going by best case cash burn. £100k against a $38.6m capex requirement for stage 1 of their graphite project

I think i'll stick with hoping TGR can turn things around vs the likes of ACP.

CJ it wasn't me that called it a shi* or bust tomorrow, i don't think it is either.

We could really do with a thorough update from Craig though whatever the outcome is tomorrow to tell us where the last ten weeks has left us, compared with the update we had in early December.

Good on you Amers, this is certainly an attractive level in which to load up.

https://*********************/media/tirupati-graphite-advances-graphite-exploration-in-madagascar-amid-global-demand-surge/id/20357

They could raise £1m at 5p but no way is it worth increasing the share count 20m for...

There's a lot of work they can be getting on with whilst they wait for the VAT rebate such as stabilising production at 1200t a month, appointing a CFO and two new NEDs and releasing the updated resource after the exploration update the other day.

Sadly there are still question marks hanging over this even if BMN collects the rest of the initial subscription funds from SPR tomorrow - what is then going to happen in regards to the rest of the funds? BMN are due $13.2m from SPR for 50% of Vanchem, $3.7m when Mokopane transaction completes and also a $25m-$30m working capital facility later this year.

And there's also the delayed $3.5m from Acacia too.

The only surprise is how well the share price has held up - 2.1p at the start of the year before any of these problems were known, 1.4p today - far from total capitulation.

Tamesis has a target price of 75p based on POG at $1950 for 2024 and $1950 for 2025. But if we see $2150 for 2024/2025 that increases EBITDA from $25.5m to ~ $32.5m and for 2025 from $34.4m to ~$45m, against today's mcap of $57m.

AND then it's 2026 when an even sharper increase in production is expected as seen here:

https://twitter.com/Serabi_Gold/status/1767542059995394089

It's worth noting that other brokers for other goldies have started forecasting much higher gold prices for 2024 and beyond.

The best data we have is from last year where they made a fairly hefty ebit loss (can't really use ebitda with the large depreciation costs they have) but that was against a teeny 3982t sales, equivalent to just 330t a month. H1 saw more than double that at 797t per month so I imagine they're at about breakeven from an ebit perspective at 800t a month.

And there's this from the going concern: '(TGR) is engaged in ramping up production so as to reach a level of breakeven monthly production and sale that is estimated to be about 1000 to 1200 tons per month as against current levels of 700-800 tons per month and is engaged in raising funds for meeting its working capital needs as also for further developments.'

If they are able to produce 1000t and 1500t - 1600t with just £1m more funding then it won't be long til they announce they are profitable.

Speck, we're talking anything from 0 to ~£2 depending on the result, with at least as much chance to the downside (wipeout) as the other extreme (full win) which to me seems like great value at 43p / trading below net cash level.

I still think if there's no settlement before late May we'll be trading closer to £1 than 50p in the run up to the trial, hence more than worth the risk of holding into June (with the chance of a positive settlement any day).

This would absolutely be true if there wasn’t the very real chance of a big discovery. Look at the below tweet for example and then realise why Anglo have committed $38m so far and what the share price will do if there’s any sign that Arc has an eventual 30% share of multibillion dollar assets - hint, no-one will care about the 3p warrants.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1750499530624102817

The directors and the other IIs in the placing are fully aware of the likelihood of a positive discovery in Zambia and that's why they gave themselves tasty 3p warrants. Very annoying for holders and will likely curtail the upside but for someone like myself down here there's every chance, thanks to the millions invested by Anglo, that we see a few multiples from this level.

Ps Binbin excellent and thoughtful message. Worth reposting later as it disappears off the top of the page.

'Never got answers to my questions - isn’t TG a nearly profitable graphite miner?'

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There's two sides to this Drew. On the positive side, yes, they aren't far off becoming a profitable miner and yes that would make them the only listed Ex China producer to achieve that - a big deal. TGR managed to build capacity at an industry low capex and operate on a shoestring budget so only a modest step up in production would get them to the cash generative level.

And for balance, the bad. TGR reached 30kt capacity in February of last year. Having achieved yearly production of 4770t they then guided 6100t for Q1 of this year alone, a crazy jump! This was missed my more than 50% at 2371t but the market cut them some slack because the target seemed ludicrous to start with.

Q2 then ends up lower than Q1 but we're given a base case target for H2 of 7500t (working towards 10000t) but Q3 has come and gone and the company decided to bury the numbers, leaving the market to assume that Q3 is at best the same as the lowly ~2200t of Q2.

So here we are at a ridiculous valuation against the investment and net assets TGR have because the market is totally dismissing anything management claims now and will only believe it when they see it. Follow through on current plans and strategy and this is a guaranteed multibagger from here, fail and they'll find themselves in trouble further down the road.

Coffee, Arc are still to receive $11m x 0.67 = $7.37m as part of phase 1 (weighted to the end) so in combination with the placing money (and warrants?) they are cashed up for years to come.