Member Info for HarChris

And don't miss the rising large and jumbo flake prices, the majority of TGRs basket in Madagascar - they continue to buck the trend and are up over every timeline. See Flake Graphite +195 & +895 in the link below:

https://www.asianmetal.com/Graphite/

That’s nice of you to give me a shout out!

Long way to go still and *much* improved management is needed to see anything like a recovery but at least this past week has given reason to be a little more optimistic.

All going well we’ll be looking at a different proposition altogether in six months 🤞

That's certainly the case for gdr, omega etc that have either gone under or have no chance of seeing much growth from here.

That is not the case for Novacyt that now owns a very respectable diagnostics business in Yourgene and the cash to fund it to reach its potential as well as to continue building its own portfolio and acquiring its way to growth.

I've always said that the beauty, at least, is that Novacyt is a cat with many lives, it can fail miserably for years, can cycle through CEOs yet still eventually become a success story. I'd say it's on about life five of its nine now.

I think most of us underestimated how hard it would be to transition post-covid. Is there any small cap that managed to totally transform because of covid profits or through raising tons of cash off a covid inflated share price? Biosynex up until recently was the stand out for me but even they've seen their share price fall from a covid high of €27 to €4.80 today.

For that reason I'm at least pleased that Novacyt are still in the game because if the management team had overestimated their abilities, if David Almond overestimated his ability and thought he could spend his way to success the cash might have already been blown. This cautious approach might just see Novacyt end 2024 having streamlined their business, be on the path to profitability and sitting on £50m+ cash - a very attractive proposition with no DHSC dispute looming over them anymore.

James clearly isn't the person to maximise shareholder returns for a diagnostics company listed on AIM but he's also not the worst person to have temporarily in charge until the dispute uncertainty has passed.

That's very true. If TGR have been given word that the VAT will be paid this week the 'imminent' covers it and yet that news has the potential to cause a 50% reaction from 6p. Why? Because it's more than the stated capital TGR need in the short term and it's completely non dilutive so it changes the outlook and carves out a path to significant operational growth. Also because the market doesn't buy anything management says still so despite the 'imminent' it will still be viewed as a surprise by the market.

Really would be ideal to get confirmation of receipt this week.

Craig did discuss this very thing in December Cindercone. I'll paraphrase:

'So we've modelled our prices for 2024 on the midpoint from what we received in sales in October/November, a fairly conservative view, and even at that price we have noticeable ebitda at the production level of 4300-4500mtV. So as long as the numbers don't get significantly worse than that we'll have a positive outlook from an ebitda perspective and cash flow. It's not enough to fund the entire capital for next year but certainly enough to keep us well above water including all the payments to Orion in 2024 and 2025'

A lot has happened since though. Guidance has been pulled and it's reasonable to assume it's going to be reduced by at least a few hundred mtV. We're yet to receive funds from Acacia and there are at least some doubts over SPR as a credible financing partner. Also whilst European FeV prices are similar to what they were at that Oct/Nov midpoint the US price has fallen by at least 10%, possibly a bit more.

This is a terrible time for all vanadium producers and survival will be all any can hope for right now. Next is Largo reporting their Q4 financial results tomorrow evening - they've just sunk to eight year lows so the market obviously isn't expecting great news.

Jammin add THX to your list.

Low debt, about to go net cash positive, will make $90m ebitda this year with POG at $2150 against a $102m mcap.

Only three years left for current mine but should make at least two times mcap in profit in that time. Mine extension should add another couple of years and then a bit further out they are hopeful for a new 100k ounce mine and also have lithium interest.

I don't mean today after such a fall but last week at £85m mcap - there are so many significantly undervalued goldies with far lower risk.

Why do people take such gambles on loss making high risk companies like this in such a gold environment? So many small caps making a solid profit, with little debt and therefore able to navigate hurdles that come their way with ease.

Been so many red flags here of late.

Sloppy of me, of course I knew that, thanks for the correction!

Even more so then the top positions are already more or less equally split between Novacyt and YG now. I'm pretty happy with how it's looking although a CEO to replace James with strong commercial ability and a history of success would be the icing on the cake. If not we'll most likely see Lyn given the more important brief with James more of an acting Chairman rather than CEO.

Sorry to nitpick but Joanne has a slightly different title to Head of R&D, Paul Oladimeji's role hasn't been filled yet. This is the senior management team as far as I'm aware.

CEO - James McCarthy

CFO - Steve Gibson

COO - Peter Coyne (formerly VP of Global Operations at Yourgene)

Chief Development Office - Anthony Dyer

Chief Scientific Officer - Joanne Mason (also from YG)

And of course Lyn Rees who is still CEO of Yourgene.

Then you've got senior members of YG like Jo Cross who is Director of Marketing for YG but probably will be made director for the whole group -as you can see this is more a merger than typical acquisition.

CC we've already been informed that they've not paid their $3.5m, on the 29th Feb (due 28th Feb). There's now a dispute between BMN and Acacia with Acacia supposedly asking for a two month extension and Craig saying 'nee'. So no we're not specifically due an update til there's some movement/progress:

'The Company is actively engaging with Acacia to resolve this issue as quickly as possible while reserving its right to take appropriate legal action.'

It's a total shi*show though as they move from one crisis to the next.

As I've highlighted previously YG was a £70m company even before covid, rose to a high of ~£135m during covid and was still valued around £60m well into 2022 with a net cash position of £3m, but their downfall came with the £5m loan they took on that year and a failure to reach profitability soon enough to give them any further options bar diluting to oblivion.

Now YG, alongside Novacyt, is part of a group that is debt free and has £44m cash that appears to be being channelled primarily into its side of the business. Does this guarantee success? Of course not but the chance of fulfilling the potential that many IIs have recognised in the past has ratcheted up many times. And what that success, according to brokers would mean, is a company valued in the hundreds of millions.

Then add in Novacyt's own portfolio and the potential for a number of small bolt on acquisitions alongside (and possibly big ones if the dispute goes our way) and you see how a 'midcap' diagnostics business is still a possibility here.

We’re entering ‘EBITDA exceeding current mcap’ territory now if POG remains high and forecasts are met

Certainly, but those that kept claiming this will be suspended any day to ramp up the scaremonger deserve calling out.

Not a huge surprise as the very recent placing was at 11p.

I bet Shishir would love to buy up miliions at this price (assuming he actually has the cash to do it) but can't without sparking private take-out rumours.

RNS - well 400k of those shares were bought by Alastair Bath

That's good to see, a million worth of buys in the last half hour - hopefully that buyer continues chomping tomorrow.

Well Joanne Mason was the Chief Scientific Officer of Yourgene so she essentially took over an expanded brief as the CSO of the entire group. Right now the board set up feels very positive. You have impressive individuals like Joanne, clearly capable entrepreneurs in Lyn Rees and you have the dull accountant types in James and Steve with tight control over the finances.

We're clearly not going to get any updates on the DHSC situation until there is some settlement in place or until a judge decides the outcome in June, they've kept tight lipped for two years so nothing is going to change in the run up to the end game. With that so close now I wouldn't expect many strategic updates but hopefully the next trading update will at least start to show the cost savings impacting our margins as well as hopefully further steady progress on the sales front.