Member Info for HarChris

Certainly true that ‘cash is king’ right now - you even have companies like Biosynex that not long ago were valued at €300m could end up on Novacyt’s radar as a way to take large European market share.

Although I suspect most acquisitions will be small bolt on types and non listed entities

I still think providing the funding that GDR badly needs at this stage would be the better option - for just a few million ncyt could own 20% of something that might soon be far larger and with it incentivise partnership and collaboration between the two companies.

Another slightly underwhelming monthly update to add to the pile but at least this time the jam promised is backed up with action following Lincoln’s purchases a few weeks back - this strongly implies mgmt fully expect the cashew to start delivering.

Been a painful hold but feel like we’re going to start to see some returns soon(ish)

Yes under his stewardship the share price collapsed alongside every other AIM diagnostics company in 2022 when markets turned - GDR, ABDX, ODX etc

Did YG need more money to get the most out of their tech and products and reach profitability? If so they have it in spades now.

Secondly, do you bother with this sort of transition if there's a half decent chance you're about to be wiped out by a government dispute going against you? I don't think so.

It is inevitable that many with a connection to YG previously will come on here to tell us what a bad decision this is but us Novacyt holders that post on here, on the whole, have been championing this move.

Ncyt needs a dynamic ceo that has the potential to drive growth in a way that James McCarthy was clearly unable to - Lyn is that person despite being one of a plethora of AIM ceos that failed to manage the extremely difficult AIM market landscape over the past few years. Guaranteed success? Obviously not but at least the potential is there now.

'Lets hope the new directors buy some shares'

No way that's possible this close to the dispute outcome, talks will likely be on going re settlement.

Excellent news!

A chance for Lyn to make amends for previous management failures backed by a considerable war chest this time around.

Why? Monthly results haven't been released as early as the 10th since October - the 10th-12th is the standard range now with the occasional late one on the 13th.

Direct costs come out in that range yes but you can't attribute a gross margin multiplier of 6-10 when there are now such large indirect costs, in particular financing on debt.

$40/kgV would turn the outlook on its head sure but the risk is mounting all the whilst the vanadium price is so much lower than that and with the issues around SPR/Acacia alongside. There are no signs of any near term improvement in prices either, in fact European prices are heading back to the bottom we saw in December.

I assume the timelines were given because they had to, after all they’ve been working this financing from at least September of last year and the cash runway is narrowing.

Fingers crossed there’s no hiccups and it lands this week.

There’s been no Notice of Results rns yet - often in April but can be anytime up until June 30th.

Yeah share price decline followed by weeks of consolidation has always given us the bottom and more often than not it’s been at about 40p. We’re finally in the ‘positioning for dispute resolution’ zone so fully expect this to be more like 70/80p before outcome is announced, with maybe a dip in June if there’s not going to be a settlement and it is to be at the behest of a High Court judge.

If the dispute

We were always likely to see a strong rise after a substantial period of share price stabilisation. It’s happened many times before and has even more reason to now with the dispute resolution so close.

I think I estimated previously about 2500 ounces of gold stockpiled/yet to be sold so that would be worth more than $5.5m now.

I still think it misleading to imply that historical debt reduction has any read through, it doesn't. Debt has actually come down considerably in the last year or so, mainly because Argo sold Helios and a load of brand new machines but it's not the biggest of positives, having gone from a growth stock to a survive-at-all-costs stock.

As for 80 BTC mined if you mean for April then yeah that probably is about right seeing as the halving doesn't occur until the later in April. As for May though I would imagine it will be 60BTC tops but more likely 50BTC.

Well if they were generating cash for two more years they'd also see a big jump in mcap and would be able to raise their way out of their biggest issue, to at least a decent degree.

Their last hope was a huge rally and significant raise before the hosting agreement came to an end but with the halving that's dead and buried now.

I think we're largely in agreement though - Argo is unlikely to exist this time next year.

'I'm not convinced the halving is the end of Argo'

It is though, when you add in what you then went on to write.

If, like now, Argo were able to generate ~$1.5m cash pm then that would start to open up options re finding solutions o the hosting agreement problem but now the cash generation that will have been going on for a couple of months is disappearing in two weeks time that narrows their options even further, as they will also be needing to raise too just to keep the lights on.

As Kaeren has just pointed out this is just mere speculation. On my part it's to highlight the sheer undervaluation here, that for example a loss making diagnostics company that is cash-strapped and at most able to raise a few million in the coming months in return for a significant chunk of the company is valued at more than a third of what Novacyt is currently.

And also how Novacyt could partner and take a significant interest (less risk, time and energy of TO) for petty cash.

Tekina, that's all well and good but it took a placing and the dumping of their last saleable asset to get the debt down from $70.3m to $54m. How do you suggest they get the next $16m down, and the one after, and the one after that?

The halving is about to drown them.