Member Info for HarChris

Well it would still take considerable time for a new CEO to bed in so we'd be almost talking about a 2021 situation again and likely no long term strategy for six months post June/July outcome.

If you're going to build the business around YG then it makes sense to position Lyn and Joanne right at the heart and give them this time, pre settlement/dispute result, to settle in so that they can hit the ground running once the whole sorry saga is behind us in a few months time.

Certain posters are having a truly difficult time trying to make out that there is no investment case to be had here at this price whilst also calling the recent 3p warrants robbery - the two are mutually exclusive, the arguments are oxymoronic.

Either there is no money to be made here and so those warrants are a non talking point or there's significant returns to be had from 1.8p and we should merely be annoyed that Nick has rewarded himself and others despite mismanagement.

The one and only difference this time is that Lincoln has recently bought 1.7m shares so the perennial accusation of ‘if DKL are so undervalued why don’t the directors buy?’ rings less true now.

Will be interesting to see if there’s any more director purchases - perhaps the 400k buy at 1.35p yesterday? If there is I’ll definitely take the risk and follow them in more aggressively.

The last Going Concern in August 2023 laid out all the risks, none of which have changed. The next going concern statement, at the end of this month in the full year results, will be very different.

Argo needs BTC to build up a head of steam before those results are published.

True regarding bitcoin but that doesn't apply to miners, actual companies with revenues and debt to service that rely on BTC being a certain price today, or next month. If you hold BTC and believe in it you can just switch off but with Argo for example it's irrelevant if BTC goes on a big run in mid 2025 because it won't exist to share in the spoils.

I have found my views on ncyt grow ever closer to yours over time CS with your take turning out to be fairly astute throughout. Our views were never worlds apart but certainly other ends of the continent whilst now they sit more or less side-by-side.

The proof in what I and others have been saying is that there hasn’t even been an attempt by the management to go in a different direction, to at least seem like they have some innovative alternative way of getting out of this situation. No instead they’ve just pootled along, cutting costs and selling down every asset they can, buying time to be on the right side of a crazy Bitcoin bull run.

A reasonable tactic but it hasn’t paid off and probably have a few months left at most for that to happen now… once the low numbers start bleeding through in the monthly updates and then the quarterlies the SP will crumble.

Me, a couple too many times over the past few months :)

It's an amazing stat - to buy and hold from IPO in June 21 and be currently 25% down is crazy. The risk now is way, way lower as the debt is paid down and the gold horizon is so positive.

Of course weak wider market sentiment explains part of it but only a very small part, the rest appears to still be lack of trust in Segun delivering / general liquidity issues. This will change over time as successful execution is proved.

I don't agree with that BBB - the genuine amongst us have focused on the longer term and continually questioned how it would be possible for Argo to flourish. I've been saying for well over a year that the only chance of survival into ~ 2025 (ie post halving) is a mega pump and a mega raise but since they've only managed £13.5m across two equity raises, nowhere near enough. So, as expected, all saleable assets have now been flogged and they have been unable to grow whatsoever since, which in this industry equals rapid decline.

If they simply go all out on survival then they might be able to dilute to oblivion sub 10p but it won't bring any meaningful returns for investors and those that understand that are happy to share that with the uninitiated that think they might see 10X from here.

There’s many factors at play but none that quite justify the current valuation.

My take - mine life extension of say 18 months alongside POG strength and we see 25p. Beyond that the economics need to be right at Douta and beyond that the eventual realisation of the lithium ambitions.

The downside from here only comes if none of the above occur and POG weakens.

Argo has been unable to do anything but keep itself in business for the past 15 months or so and that has led it to the stage we are now where failure is highly likely.

There's always the chance that BTC goes crazy suddenly ($70k to $250k in a matter of weeks kinda thing) and Argo multibags but you're better off doing the lottery than waiting for that.

More realistically at 11p we might see BTC rally hard post halving ($70k to $100k kinda thing) and Argo attempts a rally but you're still probably only making 40 odd percent from here.

The most likely outcome is that the 50% reduction in mining reward heavily outweighs the fall in difficulty/BTC rise and by the end of the year Argo ceases to exist.

I was getting a little too fixated on the actual executive job titles, that makes sense. Thanks K

Are you sure she’s been given a wider brief? When I was doing research on appointments all I saw was that she was head of R&D of Primerdesign

Yes and to be on target to reach cash flow break even without further funding they needed to be at or close to the 55000 prescriptions target in q4... instead they achieved just half that.

Do you think they are going to achieve the previous target of 330000 Rx in 2024 now, after achieving 77000 RX in 2023?

We don't know exactly how long the cash runway is but the market is betting on it not being very long.

As of the end of 2023 SRB had a net cash position of $5m after considerable investment that year, around 2500 oz stockpiled ready to be sold ($5.5m at current prices) and at an average price so far for 2024 heading towards $2150/oz are set to post ebitda of ~$30m. Low capex route to 60k oz by the end of 2025 and long term plans for 100k-200k operation.

What value do you think SRB should be, then?

6p would be a dream and highly unlikely now.

Cash was $13.6m end of June. They then $6.2m + a $20m debt facility and then finished the year with $13.9m. I don't think mgmt shared how much of the debt facility was drawn down but therefore it can assume to be significant.

The market suspects cash is dwindling to zero now and with the mcap at just £12m and debt on the books (despite being pre profit) what comes next is dilution to oblivion - or a cheap buyout at 2p.

I stand by my earlier comment that this is an excellent move. I didn't actually see it coming so soon but I'm relieved that James actually recognises his limitations and/or isn't trying to just draw a comfortable salary long term.

We can now think of the company as Yourgene + Primer Design + IT IS + Novacyt's r&d team and additional products + £44m cash + debt free. That's a world away from the YG that was valued at £80m+ prior to covid.

It's not 33k ounces, guidance for 2024 is 38k-40k and the target is greater than 60k in eighteen or months from now (full year 2026).

'James will remain with the Company for a period of time to officiate a smooth transition.'

Maybe that's why?