Member Info for HarChris

Much nearer to my 80p prediction pre dispute resolution than our learned friend's 10p forecast :)

That's a lot of buys, must be a big seller exiting to keep the share price flat like this.

I think SRB is getting closer to 'fair value' now but fact remains at such a gold price they're going to be producing ebitda not too far off the current mcap with those funds being put straight to use towards the next production level of 60k ounces.

Still room for 100% upside from 60p in 2024.

60% of the cash has been spent but a third of that was on YG to start with. You then have considerable costs associated with the dispute, you have 'rightsizing' post covid with significant covid stock write-offs and then there's all the R&D in which there's always a lag to see results + the costs associated with integrating YG into the wider group.

Looking at it from a more positive angle ncyt STILL have £44m after all of the above + £8m vat reclaim if dispute is settled at nil + £70m of unused tax losses for when they reach profitable i.e no tax to pay for the foreseeable.

That's true but whether or not it's 45%, 40% or 35% revenues are going to fall and Argo are not in a position to manage that what with having sub £10m cash/cash equ. and £45m debt, no remaining saleable assets and a fleet of machines that will start to flag.

Argo can only be sustained if BTC obliterates that reward/difficulty relationship so much so that they are able to generate cash rather than burn it - possible but unlikely and it would only be short-lived as difficulty would then start rising again and Argo can't grow themselves.

What IES has going for it is being arguably the best placed non lithium battery manufacturer outside of China - when you realise just how much business there is to go after over the next 3-5 years you begin to see why now would be the ideal time to partner up with IES and why they shouldn’t be demanding a discount to do so.

The problem is that this is a gold bull run, if you don't make hay whilst the sun shines you sure as hell are going to struggle when the clouds descend.

Argo's huge 26 bitcoin holding is going to more than make up for a halving in revenue, sure!

2020/2021 was very different not just because we were in the midst of a pandemic but because AIM was in a multi year bull run whereas now it's the opposite, liquidity is at all time lows.

Keep it realistic. Whilst nobody can say for sure the sort of SP of the covid highs is not going to be seen following the dispute resolution, even if Novacyt win it outright. A spike to the sort of £3.50 level would be absolute tops in my opinion but even that I think unlikely, much more likely would be a value a tad above the cash position with appreciation quickly following if successful execution of strategy starts to be seen.

Someone was certainly in a hurry to buy before market closed, paying all the way up to 56p - be great if it’s linked to an rns tomorrow!

I think they had to after giving the four to six week timeframe and the cash runway closing in on them - without this rns I'm sure the share price would have capitulated over the coming weeks which might have changed the strike price of these forthcoming deals

See for me DKL are at a very critical juncture, and have been for the past few months. What with the palm oil business being profitable, the indebtedness and the market backdrop what comes next is either capitulation (and we're talking 0.5p) or a rerate to a higher level (perhaps 3p). If the cashew operation doesn't start pulling its weight or the CPO is unable to carry the whole business and funding is therefore needed to service debt then it's coming at the steepest of discounts, in a dilution to oblivion type scenario. However if a clear turnaround is seen and DKL are capable of self funding their way from this point onwards then a £20m+ mcap / 3.5p a share is easily achievable.

I don't think these directors are the types to toss their cash down the drain hence my optimism increasing following these recent purchases.

Well I added 20% to my holding as soon as that rns landed and might add more later this week.

It by no means guarantees that things are about to significantly improve but with so many discounted shares out there it’s a big tick in the box that these two directors have chosen to throw money at DKL.

At the very least they are fully expecting a turnaround in cashew fortunes from June onwards.

Really tough to say but the share price was about 45p when this whole drawn out protracted process started. Seeing as IES are nearing cash flow positive as Mistral gets off the ground later this year it's likely we see some debt in the mix for the first time so debt, equity and warrants is my guess (will be happy as long as warrants are multiples of current price).

Some of the wording is certainly a bit odd but in general it’s put out to say ‘yes we’ve passed our own 4-6 week timeline but it’s coming and it’s worth the wait’

YG started 2022 just shy of 13p a share, almost halved to 7p six months later and barely a quarter after that were forced into a 0.3p placing! Rather extreme and quite clearly more than simply incompetence from the management - they got caught on the wrong side of a very sudden downturn on AIM and had no way to service the loan they had taken on previously and continue operating without such drastic measures.

It will certainly be interesting to see if LR and Joanne are able to learn from their mistakes the last time around as well as leverage the significant resources they now have at their disposal

If this was all planned then Rees is a bit of a genius to be honest. He was running a company that had relatively high debt on its books, £3.5m vs ~£2.5m cash as of the last accounts in a market that punishes severely anyone putting out the begging bowl.

Within a period of six months his company has essentially reverse engineered into a cash shell and he is reinstated as head of that holding company. But Novacyt does have assets on top of the £44m cash position, it has a portfolio of products, IP and a history of considerable R&D spend as well as an internationally recognised brand. It also have £70m of unused tax losses that can be offset against future profits.

This is not just a second chance for Lyn Rees but an opportunity quite unlike anything he's had before.

When BTC hit its all time high of $69k in November 2021 Argo was producing 180 coins a month and had cash/cash equivalents of £93m and debt ~£30m.

In the 30 months since all saleable assets have gone, including the flagship Helios facility and from May onwards (inc fees equ.) Argo will likely be producing around 60 coins a month at, as of now, a lower BTC price than the comparator Nov '21. The cash position will be sub £10m and debt £45m.

These are facts, not guesswork.

'Presumably we are near financial update and AGM'

It's all in the most recent rns: 'Under Euronext Growth reporting requirements, the Company is required to publish its annual accounts within four months of its year-end.

The publication of the annual results for the year ended 31 December 2023, initially scheduled for release by 30 April 2024, has been postponed and will be published by the end of May 2024. This is due to the time required to integrate the accounts of Yourgene Health, acquired towards the end of the year, into Novacyt's consolidated results.'

So I suspect financial results mid to late May, followed by a notice of AGM following that - would expect it to be pushed back in order to follow the dispute resolution.

I post for that reason Hexam but also just through boredom. I have some spare time, I'm looking over stuff and then pop on and write a few paragraphs. It's not obsession or anything like that, it's just a few thoughts.

There is never any counter to posts like mine though besides being called a know it all or saying 'nobody actually knows!' which is quite telling and highlights that nobody can make the investment case.

Part of the problem here is the continually excessive valuation. I don't think Argo will exist this time next year unless we're talking 2B shares in issue and hence no realistic route to shareholder returns but if the mcap was around £20m then there might be a punt to be had (gamble on BTC going ballistic) but at £70m it's hard to see any scenario where Argo brings greater returns than BTC itself, so you're fully exposed to the downside without any upside reward.