Member Info for HarChris

More to the point I'm assuming when you mentioned trolls that's the main line of attack or at least a line of attack that they're using now and if so it appears a weak one to me, especially now the share price has retraced so.

Yeah I've started on that history now but before I went in too deep I was just trying to see if anyone raised any red flags or pointed to some obvious elephant I was ignoring. There's no question re the quality of the assets when you see how Anglo previously rated them and now the scale of funds invested for drilling.

As for the valuation is it fair to say that a potential placing is what might be holding it back? From what I can see at most Arc might need a very small fresh injection of cash to see them through until further payments are received but that dilution (if at all) would be extremely modest at barely 5%. The issuing of shares to SP Angel would add weight to that although that could just as easily be argued as a prudent decision to preserve the cash that they still have...

Anyway that possibility doesn't put me off starting a position here

Thanks Fulmar. My starting place yesterday was this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo1t61yrwmo&t=2s which gave a nice overview and also the broker note attached but the note is from May 2022 and is solely talking about the deal with Anglo.

Arcm's always been on my watchlist and now seeing it at 52 week lows (I mean what isn't?!) thought it time to have a proper look and potentially joining the party!

Having a little look at ARCM and wondering what's the general investment case and long term strategy. For now is it sit back and leave Anglo to do all the work whilst they collect their cash payments, hopefully all $74m, and to reinvest that into Botswana exploration along the way? Or will they be looking to spend the proceeds on the 30% of the Zambian assets that aren't part of the three phased plan? How much is the price of copper over say the next three to six months likely to affect sentiment here?

Sorry for all the questions but just wondering if there's significant upside potential i'm missing or if it's more that it's relatively low risk now at £30m valuation with a giant like Anglo doing all the work.

What I meant to add is that there's reasons to believe that things might change for the better fairly rapidly. Graphite prices are at the point where it's uneconomical for almost all graphite companies ex China. Whilst a plethora of graphite explorers have ambitions to reach production with hundreds of thousands of tons of potential supply to come online the vast majority of these explorers aren't able to get the necessary funding greelit at the moment. As for the actual producers, they are having just as hard a a time. Syrah the largest of all has seen production halve this year due to poor economics and are running at a tremendous loss, northern Graphite halted production in the spring of 2023 and have yet to start production back up and some smaller producers have failed to make much operational progress.

And yet the energy transition is continuing to happen at pace plus the latest development with China export curbs which could radically improve the outlook and opportunity for those already up and running and able to feed the growing demand in the West.

Theres the ingredients here for a sudden sharp increase in demand that can't immediately be met as supply will then take time to catch up and in the meantime those producing and able to satisfy that increasing demand are going to look very, very attractive as the graphite price spikes. I can see that happening as soon as H2 2024.

Excellent well balanced and reasoned post Binbin, really appreciated.

For newbies looking in at a beaten up heavily followed graphite producer it's worth remembering that TGR are in good company, almost all listed graphite companies have seen three year lows since the start of 2024. Graphite sentiment is terribly poor across the space and graphite prices are on their knees, however there is a slightly disparity when it comes to different flake sizes.

Whilst it's not easy to get accurate data from the sources we do have small flake has faired the worst over the past 12-18 months. This type is what is generally favoured for lithium batteries. Large and Jumbo flake have held up much better than small flake, trading at about the same price as they were 12 months ago and possibly even slightly up on the year now (this compares to the smaller grades that are anything from 15 to 25 percent down).

TGRs current operations in Madagascar, where they have built 30kt capacity but are producing at (we wait for confirmation) around half that are made up of 60% jumbo, 30% large and 10% small flake, so they shouldn't be feeling the strain as badly as the likes of Syrah that have a basket size weighted to small flake.

It is the small flake however that is favoured for lithium ion batteries and hence deficits are forecasted to be seen from 2025 onwards... through its acquisition of Suni Resources TGR owns significant permitted assets in Mozambique with a differing basket size to the Madagascar operations (primarily small flake in this territory) so in time there will be both product and jurisdiction diversification and we will want to see that deficit in small flake natural graphite play out as expected.

My instinct keeps being almost completely spot on here, timing the moves up and down (although to be honest i'm hardly putting my money where my mouth is!).

I reckon there's time for one more spike before the halving fears kick in around April but this needs to settle and tread water for a week first. I'm guessing that will occur at 14p give or take a few pennies.

As undervalued as it might turn out to look with hindsight trust has disintegrated following a year of bullish statements and confidence that never ever came close to reality.

There will need to be a discernible improvement in prescriptions and/or average net selling price before there's any urgency to buy back in here - especially as there's so many other stocks that look equally undervalued with nearer term catalysts.

We've seen big placings at 175p, at 100p and most recently at 32p. To place even lower again when they are on the precipice of what they've been striving towards since 2020 and following an £11m grant from the UK government and involvement from the US in regards to 84MWh of projects would be mightily infuriating.

So to hear this is very reassuring.

Bit misleading that by itself steven.

We should see some mine life extension at Segilola but let's just say it was just three years, 95000-100000/Oz at an AISC of just $1150 would bring in more cash than current market cap within those three years, easily, assuming POG plays ball. We then have Douta PFS due which is I believe another 100000 oz mine in the making. And then big potential (if speculative still at this stage) re lithium to add into the mix.

The all time lows are quite obviously ridiculous with the amount of cash being generated.

From what I was told essentially Shishir and co were responding personally to each and every email at that point which became impossible once the share price fell and the number of messages went though the roof.

To show they were not shirking they agreed to meet each and every shareholder in London in person and if that really wasn’t possible they arranged a video call - essentially wiping the slate clean with all the unanswered correspondence in one fell swoop.

Some of the most negative here admitted at the time to not bothering to meet with Shishir or make much of an attempt to arrange a video call which proves just how little interest they really have of having their ‘concerns’ resolved.

Or the placing continues to be finalised as the (US?) backer is non plussed by the leaky price action and it’s going ahead still at 90p ish? AS thinks let the panicked do what they want today before scrambling back in later/tomorrow when the rns is out…

Technically yes but execution has to be spot on from here to make that happen.

What is the likelihood of that?

Good to see the directors/PMDRs own over 12% - certainly therefore in their interest to support the share price with a move such as you've suggested.

January 15th results immediately go down well, share price opens in the 14s and closed at 14.25p. POG is $2020.

5 weeks later, POG $2030/oz, no news expected in that period - share price down to 10.15p.

Disconnect?

'Recent announcements from China indicate the potential for VFB deployments of approximately 180 GWh to be deployed in China by 2030, requiring about 1.4 million tonnes of V2O5, or 100% of current global vanadium supply through 2028'

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If there's even a tenth of that amount across Europe and the the Americas then that's a gigantic amount of potential work for IES over the coming years.

'Talking of money, I wonder how the VAT refund is getting on. That's another thing that raised an eyebrow. I've never come across a payment being delayed due to an election. Perhaps it's my ignorance on the subject but unless I see conclusive evidence to the contrary, I've given TGR the benefit of doubt. With everything I'm getting confused as to which country the refund is coming from. UK, India or Madagascar?'

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I'm not sure about election specific delays but I follow plenty of miners based out in Africa that seem to be constantly chasing tax rebates. In some cases they never come and instead it just becomes a tax exemption further down the line when tax is due their end from profits.

Hopefully that won't be the case here and TGR receive it soon, it's a sizeable amount equivalent to that raised in the recent placing.

It's always worth checking in with EKF as an AIM listed diagnostics company with similar ambitions.

For the full year they are looking a £52m revs, 'in the region of £10m EBITDA' but a group loss for the second year in a row.

Net cash is just £4.4m now so what do you think the market cap is for this stagnating diagnostics business with cash dwindling, falling revs for three years in a row now and consistently loss making at a group level? £130m.

There is no doubt in my mind that Novacyt/YG can achieve far stronger results than the above within a few years with nearly 10 times the net cash starting position.

Whilst i've not had any correspondence in a little while management did hint that we would be getting an operational update in late Jan/early Feb. The placing occurred around then however so I assume plans changed. As for the next update being in April, i think it will be with us before the end of next week but we'll see.

Re the questions/emails, I'm simply pointing out that Croqman kindly shared correspondence and instead of giving others a chance to digest it you muddied the waters with essay long posts and further questions once again. There was useful information in there but as usually you had no interest in believing them and went on with your usual ranty approach. So much so that most probably won't even see that correspondence now because of so much junk filling the bb.

And it's laughable to call me a company stooge when you're the one that's singly focused on one company. This is one investment of mine out of a dozen, it's not my priority, it's not my reason for being, it doesn't consume every waking thought of mine. It would be strange for me to be in anyway connected to the company and yet have such a broad share portfolio.

You however are likely to be someone with a personal vendetta.

Was there any sign of a big buyer recently? 28 million shares added? Caught me by surprise that's for sure.

Good to see though.