Member Info for HarChris

Yay my sub 20p buy today looks like good timing after all! ETF approval could potentially have Argo opening back at 30p, fingers crossed.

It just needs a catalyst and if/when that comes it will push on again, if it doesn't it'll continue trickling down.

Bad timing for my trade, oh well!

'Large background selling before results does not bode well, cashew nut production issues and this will be 1.5p on open imo'

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Would expect the cashew update much later in the month, two weeks time perhaps, so doubt any selling today is directly linked to that update.

Very few companies even update monthly, DKL does it on the palm oil side (and soon on cashew) and keeps to a consistent range of dates. So far this year:

14th, 13th, 11th, 10th, 12th, 12th, 10th, 8th, 10th, 10th, 11th. And probably ending it with another 11.

Strange thing to criticise.

My reasoning for buying, despite all my reservations on other grounds, is that this would have spiked well past 30p this week if it wasn't for the placing landing when it did.

Will the loss of momentum stop this running t o30p by the end of the week? Possibly, but now it's retraced I can see a decent run north.

Got to stick to one's word - I said it would come down to placing price an it has.

Entered sub 20p for a bit of fun :)

It's not *that* telling - we've seen $2k rises after FED comments from Jerome Powell re interest rates numerous times, it doesn't then mean it keeps rising and rising, that's often it for the move before a retrace.

What we know:

(i) $8.1m debt facility paid to Bushveld in August

(ii) $6.6m cash balance as of 30th Sept

(iii) Additional $13.2m paid for Vanchem acquisition

(iv) $3.1m cash received from placing - Acacia's to come on the 28th Feb, still waiting on SPR

(v) Negligible funds raised from open offer.

$22.9m cash minus Q4 cash burn leaves BMN with well over $10m so no immediate rush for the SPR funds in terms of working capital but possible to start interfering with the capex and sustaining capex requirements at the start of the year.

'And what happens if btc goes on a charge'

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I did say BTC being equal i.e Argo will likely open up at 20p if BTC is $46.5k give or take $0.5k.

Having said that bitcoin has been on a bit of a charge this week yet Argo is down 30% because... because of the power of the placing (in the very short term). Don't fight it!

Arbk *is* currently trading sub placing price equivalent.

I agree that placings that in fact only dilute shareholders by a small amount shouldn't necessarily drag the share price back to the conversion price but it almost invariably does, especially over the past eighteen months or so.

Tomorrow is buying day after an initial drop BTC being equal.

Let's hope for an RNS this week confirming SPR money received.

Fair enough but the same folk have been saying that for years and yet as every 365 days pass EVs share of the motor vehicle market increases. It's been failing to 'catch on' from 1% of global new vehicles all the way to today's 20%+, will you say the same if it reaches 35%, or 50%?

I'm no big fan of EVs and still drive a petrol car myself but there's no denying the direction of travel as far as i'm concerned. New charging stations like in the link below are now springing up all over the place to help with range anxiety and we'll soon see traditional petrol forecourts falling by the wayside etc in fact when Rishi Sunak recently delayed the deadline in which new internal combustion engine vehicles could be sold to 2035 from 2030 many major manufacturers were up in arms, they were already preparing for an all electric future.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-67912833

There were 14 million EVs bought last year and nearing 30 million EVs out on the road globally now. Fire risk is real but the actual percentage catching fire is absolutely tiny.

Anyway this wouldn't help BMN anyway, you want lithium to be spoken for in EVs, higher demand for lithium will push up the price and make VRFBs even more attractive for long duration energy storage.

It's extremely rare in this climate for a share price not to retreat back to the placing price, it's even rarer when that equity raise is for general working capital purposes rather than growth.

This could still turn out to be one of those rare instances if BTC smashes through $50k and doesn't look back but the reality is that it's highly unlikely so the sooner this touches 20p the better for everybody.

Probably sparked by BBN on twitter adding today, he has a substantial following on there (over 5000 followers).

Others claiming to be buying/adding too today.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1744646362782691397

'You think we’re going to rise by circa 400% after the dispute? A dispute that we may just settle on and call it quits, at worst go out or business or at best get maybe 40-50 million in the bank? Wed still be at under 100m cash and a massively loss making business.'

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Depends on if you mean rise and hold or spike? I do think 'winning' the dispute and being reimbursed £50m would garner a lot of attention and considerable market reaction and would see the market cap spike well above the cash in bank of what would be ~£100m, so let's say a share price of £2.50 ish peak? That's relevant to holders today who would then have the option to sell or reduce at 4 times current price.

'Just don’t get the unrealistic ambition. '

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It's due to having a cash position the size of a midcap company and a net cash position that would be envied by multibillion pound companies (who are mostly up to their eyeballs in debt). Certainly not enough by itself but is a major factor to consider rather than just the, up until now, poor revenue numbers.

I hate the fact that I would be reasonably relieved with an increased offer to ~15.5p now - shouldn’t be but that’s the effect of lowering one’s expectations.

'It's March 2025 and BTC is at $75k and ARB is 69p and they're still 'just keeping the lights on.....''

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Argo would most likely be mining about 50BTC (post halving) and have perhaps another 120m shares in issue.

No way at $3.75m revs per month would Argo be valued at £480m.

'Yes,,agreed

placing is for expansion'

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If that was a joke nice one, you caused be to choke on my tea!

'The net proceeds of the Placing are expected to be used by the Company for working capital, the repayment of indebtedness, and for general corporate purposes'

Management wouldn't have the gall to pretend that this is for expansion

Thanks FK, whilst that may well be true it is at least reasonable to observe that the prices Dekel have received over the past few years, if not perfectly mirroring international prices, are closely aligned and hence it's a useful enough guide.