Member Info for HarChris

Such total nonsense. If the 'long term prospects of the business are not being recognised' then this is the chance to recognise it, by offering a fair amount that properly values the company.

I’ll save my Christmas messages for tomorrow, there’s a whole ‘nother day of trading to be had! Well half a day anyway.

Haha happy Christmas to the lot of you, hope it’s fun/peaceful/merry/ whatever you want it to be :)

Https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/658199d7eefadbc2f3e424df/serabi-gold-corporate-update/

Brilliant interview, mostly about the rns yesterday but talks so confidently and positively about Coringa and looks like we'll be receiving a healthy uplift in production guidance for 2024.

Well worth ten mins of your time.

It's worth remembering that had TGR not acquired the Mozambique assets when they did there would be no reasonable chance of now acquiring such assets and the potential growth ahead for the next couple of years would be extremely limited, unless mgmt were willing to stomach enormous dilution to do so...

The cost to buy Suni Resources was £6.77m, with an initial split of £5.96m in shares and £0.81m in cash. Try to do that sort of deal today and TGR would need to issue around 40 million shares.

The final agreement saw a slight reduction in the total acquisition cost although some of the cash payment was also taken in shares so today we would still be talking about 40 million shares whereas the actual figure, due to a much stronger SP in 2022, was 12.06m. All in all a very minor dilution for such a seismic increase in quality graphite assets..

In so many ways it feels like they are trying to get this over and done with before sentiment really shifts back to gold miners and this finally goes on a run. In a month's time the full year's trading update will be released as well as guidance for 2024. Might look a bit too positive to declare $75m EBITDA and production guidance of 105K oz with EBITDA on track for closing in on $100m for 2024. Tough for those headline numbers to derive you a $180m value, eh?

Once you've collected these votes think it's worth messaging the company to point out just how much threat there is of this being rejected? Give them food for thought in terms of substantially improving the offer?

Add my 170k, please.

Whilst I was a bit disappointed at the time it was made clear by James McCarthy that we shouldn’t be expecting any sort of update til January, so we’ve not been misled at least.

I’m fairly comfortable that the sort of figure needed cash-wise will be modest and inline with the sort of sums YG had been raising prior to the acquisition. You don’t pay such a premium to market price if you believe that company needs the same amount again just to reach positive cash generation.

Agreed though, Jan’s an important update.

I did. Like with most of these things they tend to take longer than expected but the restructure is complete and they are now just waiting for the relevant approvals. Seeing as NCYT are in absolutely no rush to receive that sort of money what with their cash position I see the update as nothing but a reminder that it'll be received at some point in 2024.

Anyway, not the rns anyone was waiting for.

It really is so so dodgy the way Eric took all those questions re 'what are you going to do about the share price?' in the Investor Meet's each quarter and each time he laughed them off saying there was nothing to worry about, the share price will respond in time to all the progress and if not there are other ways to get it moving or generate returns to shareholders (implying large special divis or buybacks).

This deal really needs to be sweetened to make it palatable - is it possible for Bidco to improve it by say 2p without any challenge from a counteroffer?

Steady climb going on, might just be what's happening smkr.

Still a long way to go, could double from here and still have clear skies ahead.

He used to actually come up with more watertight criticisms but now it's just desperate scaremongering, this being the prime example. 'Shaking a lot of nervous holders' - he's the ONLY one even talking about it, nobody else is bothered and volume is rock bottom low.

I'm just waiting for the TR1 as i'm interested to know their position.

Alan, it's something I've been talking about for a month. I'm also no chartist but it's obvious to any observant long term holder that Novacyt hasn't previously seen this sort of slow and steady climb before, and without any news to help maintain the momentum. For the first time it feels like each support is well won before the next move up.

And as no-one's mentioned it yet here's today's rns: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/update-on-taiwan-laboratory-disposal-ok280bnsm848uvk.html

It appears the transaction hasn't quite gone through yet but good to be reminded of this ~£3.2m cash that will be received in the new year.

Agreed, whilst still too low if that dividend was 2.15p not 0.15p I’d have been swayed into voting for the recommendation and washing my hands of Shanta. I mean at least raise your own funds instead of ours for future expansion and give us most of the cash on the books back.

100m votes against really enough? I highly doubt that but if that were the case I think we'd get there.

You have my votes but that's a little under 200k, not going to move the dial but every little helps!

Possible reason they've held off drilling and talk of expansion? It seemed strange to me that gold was reaching all time highs, everything was looking rosey yet easy doubling of expansion at Singida seemed to be being pushed back, WK progress slowed, search for new CEO non existent.

This has probably been in the works for a while and irritatingly for them the SP isn't at 11p still which would have made the premium look a 'tad' more generous.

I mean that's not true 'on just about every metric' G - srb has around $11m net cash vs $33m mcap. That metric alone disproves your claim.

Still, bit naughty to cross ramp at this point in time.

The last full broker note I have access to has from a few months back:

Target price - 21p

Based on POG average of $1800/oz through 2023 falling to $1675/oz in 2024...

This year is $1950/oz and entering 2024 above $2000/oz! They are blowing the metrics for 21p out of the water and now mgmt are sneaking through 13.5p sale?!

Re your other comment there’s no doubt you’re an honest contributor on here that gives their view without ulterior motives - it’s refreshing. I like to think I’m the same but am prone to getting carried away at times!

There are no definite probabilities in the stock market, there are just known risks and unknown risks that we attempt to assign odds to. Ours is known and to a great deal priced in (although obviously not fully as we know), against an entity that has what seems a perfect record of losing cases.

I’d be worried if we were actually up against the big boys, not the dithering DHSC with likely rookie civil servants called up to make big calls well above their pay grade in the eye of the storm.

Anyway I started this by saying that this feels different - I know we all suffer from unconscious biases but for example I sold out at first because it seemed like a mismatch on paper - the government vs minnow Novacyt but as time has passed there are many reasons to think that counts for very little in this instance.