Member Info for HarChris

Small traders don’t want money tied up for months and instead utilising it elsewhere?

I consider the risk low relative to upside despite the possibility of a wipeout. If you came to me with a dice and said 'roll a 5 you give me a grand, roll a 1,2,3,4 or 6 I give you a grand' there would be the possibility of me losing all of my money but that's a very good bet.

The DHSC dispute isn't binary, there's a range of possible outcomes but the far extreme negative one appears to be a very unlikely one. All investing is a gamble and AIM investing is the biggest gamble of all but these are odds, at least in my mind, that are highly favourable for once.

Let's be having gold all time highs above $2100/oz by the vote in Jan - that should really throw the cat amongst the pigeons.

I forgot the IMO this time around.

Anyone that places any money here really must know the amounts on the table re the dispute and therefore the potential implications one way or the other. That's basic... If not they are asking for trouble.

'"As a shareholder in Shanta, we remain supportive of management and their strategy. However, we believe that Shanta's share price may inhibit Shanta's ability to deliver on its strategy and potential to maximise future shareholder returns.'

Bolloc**, management have tons of options as the cash pile builds and builds. From $13m at the start of the year to what will be about $35m, fast forward a year and we'll be talking $70m. Huge buyback or special divis would deliver returns without having to take this private.

I see he's voting for it, did not expect this low. 15p as a starting big seemed reasonable to me although less to others I know.

No comment from Eric? If we can get this rejected then at least an increased big by 3 or 4p would be something...

This doesn’t just feel like the typical desperate shareholders all having to convince themselves that novacyt are going to win the dispute and they’re going to get their money back, it really does seem the most likely outcome based on all that we know and from seeing how pathetically poor the government/dhsc acted over that period.

When that news lands suddenly NCYT are going to have that dark cloud of uncertainty removed and be sat on anything from £50m cash to £100m+ , with no debt and another company in Yourgene already merged and integrated into the group.

Some might be able to get in at 8am after the news lands but the biggest gains will have been made by those like us willing to take on that small risk of being wrong from now. And settlement news could come any day now.

I was looking at Argo Blockchain (ARB) earlier and seeing as their tickers are just one letter apart here's the comparison:

Through first 9 months of year:

Revenue - $34m vs SRB's $48m.

P/L - $29m loss vs SRB's $4.6m profit after tax, more like $6.5m if sales had matched production.

Net cash (debt) - ~$68m net debt vs SRBs ~$11m net cash.

NAV - $3m net liabilities vs $88m net assets.

Effect of commodity rising - Very little for Argo as bitcoin algorithm adjusts difficulty upwards and ARB hasn't the capital to keep pace vs huge margin increase for SRB with each additional $100/oz rise.

LOM - Argo machines have about 3 yrs of life before whole fleet needs replacing, for SRB Palito around 6-7 yrs with further mine life extensions likely to come + soon (hopefully) the addition of Coringa. Potential to self-fund a doubling of production and a significant increase in margins.

Now who'd believe that the former was valued at £84m and the latter at £26m?! It totally defies all logic with the only explanation being the incredible sentiment still attached to bitcoin miners and the total lack of with gold miners.

Great quote scoo but for balance Larry also said in January '2023 is our year'.

A lot of progress has been made but since that quote on Jan 26th the share price is 30% down.

' CC showing again he gets business done quickly.'

For all the problems BMN are faced with currently the above quote is irrefutable. We now just have to hope that the one crucial thing that's almost entirely out of his control, the vanadium price, plays ball to allow all these efforts to deliver the expected medium term returns.

For sure LI but we've got to remember that a raise will be largely targeted at institutions. How does the mgmt convince them to significantly invest at a valuation of a £100m mcap with the halving a couple of months away?

We saw the difficulty Argo had in raising money with a year still til the halving (£5.75m last time around). How do you raise enough to (i) cover the short term debt ($13m?), (ii) reduce the long term debt, (iii) grow their hash rate to at least partially offset the halving and (iv) build a balance sheet to allow them to replace their machines as and when they knacker?

There was a very real chance of success back in 2021 and even 2022 but now there's honestly close to zero in my opinion, so much so that I don't think I've ever seen such a non existent investment case. I've tried to get some holders to challenge my views but I don't think anyone actually has a case besides bitcoin going on such a relentless and sustained rally that a £50m placing is achieved and EVEN then that would only pay off a portion of the debt and give Argo £20m or so to somehow compete with the miners that have access to hundreds of million of dollars worth of capital.

As I said, going to be interesting to watch and hopefully everyone at least knows the tightrope they are walking if they throw a lot of money at it.

It’s genuinely fascinating to watch as wild share predictions are touted again. Argo is already closing in on £100m mcap despite being loss making, having now around $70m net debt, assets that will fast become valueless and an expected halving in revenues from April. Not only that but due to the lack of funding levers and the way the Bitcoin algorithm works they aren’t even able to benefit much from rising BTC, as difficulty almost matches any rise.

It’s fascinating to watch the two camps, one that is aware of this and is just trying to be nimble on the trading front (some of whom will use emotive language to reel the ignorant in) and the other that will get carried away and lose the lot.

All we were promised/ told to expect was all three drill results before the fourth quarter results. So far we have had a WK update and are waiting on the other two before end of Jan. Seems on track for me.

Surprised it's taking so long to appoint the new CEO though.

Completely agree, another company I follow today has made an error in total voting rights by 300 million shares, it happens. In this case it was the tiniest of mistakes.

Anyway look forward to the TR1 from BAT that shows they haven't even sold all of their tranche 1 shares and await the half year report which will be with us within just six trading days.

That's what I'm saying, we're past the point of trusting forward guidance but don't be dismissive of actual results on the record, and on the CPO side this year they really are very positive.

CPO production year to December - 36560T, same period last year - 23354T

A 56% improvement is great and we know that prices continue to hold firm around €800/t

The SP is yet to respond but assuming that these results are strong enough to meet all upcoming debt deadlines we should be close to a sharp share price reaction. And if cashews were to suddenly, for once, surprise to the upside then the reaction will be even starker.

Amers good for you, that's a great average to be sitting on, can't be many that low.

My history here is probably different to most. I was up many tens of thousands of pounds when the share price hit £12, an almost life changing amount for me. I held all my shares until we first learned about the dispute in early-mid 2021 and then decided to sell the vast majority of my shares around the £3.50 mark. I started rebuilding a holding once I thought the dust had settled but then the updates got worse and worse and so I sold again, this time for a fairly hefty loss although always keeping a portion of my holding as I couldn't quite let go of the notion of this turning around and not being a part of it.

At some point in 2022 I once again began rebuilding my holding with a decision made to stick it out until the dispute was resolved, at a minimum. Following the YG acquisition I really went for it to the point of now having many times the shares I held through to April 2021, although obviously my holding is lower in actual value than it was at £12.

I relate to both CS's take on things as well as Kaeren's. This is the most optimistic I've been since the heady covid days in 2020 although I'm still wary of this management team and have learnt not to get carried away. I've also prepared myself for the worst in the unlikely eventuality that somehow the dispute goes against Novacyt. Having really thrown the kitchen sink here recently it would be absolutely gutting but as Kaeren alluded to it's about taking ownership of your decisions and accepting responsibility whatever the outcome and moving on as best as possible if things don't go your way. A positive return from here isn't a certainty but big returns never come without significant challenges and risks - this one just happens to be more binary than most with odds, at least imo, stacked well in our favour. That's not a scenario that one comes across often and hence my willingness to take on more and more risk as we get closer and closer to a resolution.

Well i'm certainly sorry for the role I've played in creating another farce on here today. I will do my best not to add to it anymore and hopefully this topic fizzles out and there'll be space for more active investment discussion to continue in due course.

I was going through the cashew updates the other day and there's no doubt how poor delivery has been vs expectations. I mean look at this from November 2020:

'Following the Acquisition, Dekel now holds a 52% controlling interest in the Cashew Project, which is on course to commence RCN processing operations at an initial annual rate of 10,000tpa in Q2 2021.' and

'The Cashew Project at Tiebissou is undergoing a phased development to capitalise on a major shortfall in cashew processing capacity in Côte d'Ivoire, one of the world's largest cashew growers. Phase 1 is targeting an initial annual capacity to process 10,000 tonnes of RCN. Phase 2 will involve a 50% increase in capacity at the plant to 15,000 tpa within a 24 month timeframe by increasing the number of shifts of employees at the plant from two to three per day, thereby negating the need for any extra capital outlay. Phase 3 will target a doubling of capacity to 30,000 tpa. The commissioning of the plant at Tiebissou is expected to take place in Q2 2021.'

I believe they are barely at 2500TPA runrate as of the last update - shockingly poor.

However another way to look at it is if they had executed (poorly) their plans via debt instead of equity at 5p placing, at 3.1p for further stake in cashew business etc DKL would almost certainly have been swallowed up by the debt position by now.

And they are about to post record yearly revenue and group profit almost certainly this year, the palm oil operations have improved significantly just in time to potentially get themselves out of a tricky debt situation that looked hairier earlier this year with debt maturity looming.

I'm going to go with the assumption that the board must have learnt from their mistakes, must understand at this point that it's all about focusing on the two business arms they have now, it's all about delivering stable and consistent operations and not taking their eye off the ball with other fanciful ideas.