Member Info for HarChris

If POG were to stay around this level through 2024 we'd be talking EBITDA of ~$155m in two years - 15% greater than the current mcap,

That's mad when debt is relatively low, there are no working capital or cash issues (about to turn net cash positive) and Shanta's already trading below NAV.

Stnz it very much depends on what BTC does in the run up to the halving I think. If we're talking publicly listed miners then we'll definitely see an initial collapse in market caps if BTC is still low and the weakest will struggle to raise any cash whatsoever so will probably fall straight into administration. I imagine it'll be something like a 25% fall in hash fairly quickly and then gradually machines will be switched off until difficulty falls almost enough to negate the effects of the halving for those still operating.

The best miners will have options though. They may try to get ahead of the market and raise some cash before sentiment really takes a turn for the worst but if not as long as they can absorb the cash burn, either due to having enough cash in treasury or by selling BTC then they would just need to get to the point where an equilibrium is found re difficulty and rewards.

If BTC goes on a big rally prior to the halving then that'll really muddy the waters and would make predictions pretty much impossible.

What a great way to end the week - AT$H soon!

I'm with you CS. although I think a settlement only occurs if the DHSC backdown - from a comment made by James McCarthy yesterday I would be shocked if they decided to throw in the towel themselves pre-court.

So I make the most likely outcome being a pre-court settlement win with an agreed compensation amount below £81.5m (but still meaningful) or like you say, it goes to court and is pretty much all or nothing. So yeah you've got to favour Novacyt to come out on top one way or another.

Great post GL but one thing I would say is Novacyt holders have reason to be every bit as aggrieved as Yourgene holders. Whilst your share price will have fallen further than ours there was obviously a far greater risk to holding YG than there was novacyt, what with over £100m in cash a year ago and not a penny of debt to service. It is quite clear that Yourgene outperformed Novacyt operationally over the past couple of years but obviously YG also had to manage their limited resources and capital markets nimbly and for whatever reason, whether bad luck, incompetence or a combination of both, they failed.

Management at Novacyt have simply coasted to where we are today. We remain in a strong position to be successful for all the reasons you (and others today in some good posts) pointed out but not because of managerial competency, because of a cash windfall that in some ways was akin to winning the EuroMillions. And also due to lethargy and apathy... i'm sure if the ex CEO had taken a different approach we'd be sitting on half the cash pile we have now for very little return.

Most of us are still here (and I've actually been buying again) because we continue to be in a nonsensical position where the group owns a quality diagnostics business that is probably worth at least £40m with its funding and future secured + over £60m in cash and yet is valued at less than £30m. Most recent accounts shows a net asset value of £110m... the disconnect shows a failure of management well beyond anything you'll have witnessed at YG!

The average amount of graphite in a Tesla is much more than that, around 100kg. The average weight across all EVs is closer to the figure you mentioned.

I think those who keep repeatedly warning against Lyn Rees need to understand just how badly our own management here have performed. Yes technically Lyn Rees oversaw a share price collapse which led to the lowball sale to novacyt but he was operating under far, far more difficult circumstances than what the current Novacyt executives have had to face. You can be damn sure that if you had swapped out the likes of Rees, Mason etc for our own top brass the results would have been even more catastrophic.

So those of us still invested take our chances under what is very much a new set up now, in the hope that not only do we see benefit from the complementary technologies of the two companies but also from the difference in management skills, ability and styles.

So from a company standpoint we're looking at an exploration update for WK, drilling results at WK, drilling results at NLGM, drilling results at Singida and very possibly the surprise announcement of a successor to Eric all before the next quarterly update.

And with the world increasingly in disarray as the US is dragged into a second regional conflict the probability of POG reaching new all time highs grows ever greater by the day. And who knows just how much past ATHs it might end up...

Patience could easily see 100% gains from here in a relatively short space of time .

Agree CS but it's also because the market is speculative, especially on AIM. Punters buy when they think sitting on the sidelines will cost them, when they think they might miss out. Even if logic says buying would bring you a very good return in a year or so there's no reason to buy today if there's no catalyst tomorrow, most would sit and watch the share price trickle lower before buying closer to when they expect that catalyst to arrive.

We have a CEO that basically tells us that there's not a lot going on, that a couple of trading updates a year with all information sandwiched in is more than good enough... so that's mainly why the disconnect between cash and market cap is so extreme. And just as has happened dozens of times before there'll be something out of the blue again that kickstarts a 100% rally from such a depressed starting point before likely retracing back to wherever it started over a period of months.

Unless of course the Yourgene acquisition actually changes things, actually shakes things up, actually provides meaningful news flow, quarter by quarter growth and those like Rees are given some responsibility over how the news is released to market.

Not quite what I was saying, was referring to Yourgene.

There's absolutely no question that Novacyt's executive team did not/do not have the ability to organically build out a successful international diagnostics business generating £100m revs a year from scratch with backing from a cash windfall. That's not an easy task and something that takes entrepreneurial skill and savvy which they evidently lack.

Do they have the ability to build a company backed by such a cash windfall via M&A in an environment where cash is king and credit is hard to come by? Probably yes. That's a lot easier and is helped by all the experience and more developed businesses that are brought into and integrated within the wider group.

It's also probably just due to the feeling of this being the end of a mini news period now so traders taking their profits before loading back up in a few weeks in anticipation for more news (most noticeably debt-related financing) to land.

I think you'll find that's essentially what happens Pebble, in a slow and gradual way. Think of it like this:

In May last year, not much more than a year ago, Yourgene was valued at £55m, with around £7m cash at their disposal and a little less debt (giving them a small net cash position). Lyn Rees obviously believed that was enough to successfully grow and take YG forward as he himself bought 1 million shares for £70k at 7p, but as we all know the cash was running out by the end of the year and that was the beginning of the end.

Putting Novacyt aside for a second what would Yourgene be worth by itself if the novacyt group cash was allocated to it? And with no big debt repayments to eat into working capital like YG had to deal with in 2022? Arguably more than the £55m that the market valued it at last year with just £7m cash and debt repayments in the millions...

Now add in the synergies from the complementary technologies and you can start to see what this new group/de facto merger has the potential to be valued at if managed properly over the next six months or so...

I didn't misunderstand, my hope that is that having a bit of ambition, skill and drive close to the zombies might actually reanimate and bring them back from the dead.

As for Wilson thank you for for making at least ten minutes of the AGM enjoyable!

Well the way they are talking Yourgene is being considered more like a merger than an acquisition so I imagine over time those with the most ability across the two divisions will gain the most influence. I don't worry about the current BOD blowing the cash, the bigger concern for me is inertia.

I don't care that Rees 'run Yourgene into the ground' or however you wish to describe it... he didn't ever have access to anything like the cash reserves that he will now and for once we actually have someone with spunk, ability and some drive in a senior position. I'd have him all day long over the zombies we currently have.

What's the alternative? The total inactivity that we've seen over the past eighteen months or so? No thank you.

There is a total lack of urgency when it comes to doing something about the share price and absolutely no interest in throwing a bone to shareholders. How can you buy a company like Yourgene in cash, still have ~£65m in the bank and no debt and yet be comfortable with trading away at £28m?

They could pay out a special 100% dividend, give us all a complete free ride from here and STILL be debt free with £37m in cash - totally mad.

Well this injection of passion is much appreciated! A total difference to the passion of the board of directors themselves.

Wilson's one of the three!

Any reason the share price is taking a bit more of a tumble right now?

In a way you're comparing apples and oranges though Dagenham because of the halving. In none of the examples were the rewards for mining so close to halving and on top of that we have all time global hash rate despite still only being at half the bitcoin all time high.