Member Info for HarChris

'Our review of these options has continued since the Full Year Results and we intend to provide an update to the market in the coming weeks."

Three weeks tomorrow and so no surprise that we are seeing traders erring on the side of caution and dumping even at this new low.

Christina understands better than most that whilst they do of course need a healthy bank balance what they need even more is a strong and supported share price and for that the 'market' needs convincing that avct now has a management team that has investors' interests at the forefront of their decision making and so for that reason I'm confident this next payment is made in cash... even if it goes back to shares or part payment in shares from October (LD/Dx sale dependent)

When they announce that though is anyone's guess but it'll be timed to have maximum impact.

An interesting rns from ECR today regarding tax losses as they attempt to realise value from them and it reminded me of this in the annual report:

'At 31 December 2023, the Group has unused tax losses of £133,739,000 (2022: £72,097,000) available for offset against future relevant profits.'

Huge added value this brings if LR is successful in turning ncyt into a profitable business in the years ahead.

I just took a look at the institutional ownership and that too is very strong - you've got Armstrong Investments with 10.3%, Miton 9.44% and three others that make up 17.5% between them so there's very little in PI hands.

If mgmt can finally deliver on the cashew front in the months ahead then this moves very fast.

We saw director buys in March and April between 1.3p and 1.6p so I wouldn't expect anymore.

Also the directors own an enormous amount of the company already, I think it's:

Youval Rasin - 68.5m / 12.2%

Shai Kol - 28.2m / 5.1%

Aristide Achybou - 25m / 4.5%

Lincoln Moore - 7.2m / 1.3%

So that's 23.1% ownership of the company

There are loads of AIM listed companies suspended right now for failing to file their accounts on time.

Yes they lost a bit of momentum by filing right at the deadline but it's really not the worst of company sins.

Failing to show progress on the cashew front in the next update would be.

Nearer the end of the month most likely.

Absolutely have to see 40k+ prescriptions at a net selling price of at least $150 otherwise there's just no chance whatsoever of reaching break even without further funding. Not sure there's much faith in Greg left so don't expect any momentum in share price into these results.

My guess is that they’ll unlock some sort of funding or at least cobble together enough to cover the CLN so that they live to fight a bit longer… after all how embarrassing would it be to fight so hard to see off the requisitioners only to be dragged into admin six weeks later…

Do they pull off a proper finance deal ($5m+) that actually gives them a shot of getting things back on track? Well I’m not backing them but we’ll find out rather soon now as the clock ticks down.

Less to do with the actual results and much more to do with the feeling that the cashew quarterly update later this month is gong to be another damp squib with the timeline likely pushed back another quarter before any sort of meaningful impact.

Still, I doubt many will bail at the lows when there is a reasonable chance of a much better H2.

Yeah me three, the extension was when I thought the loan matured anyway. Odd.

The question is how soon after Argo share price follows Btc (if you’re right) is the placing executed? Is it too desperately needed and signposted to put traders off here?

That’s if btc rallies soon, you’ve been calling it for a while ;)

Wait so they've reduced the Galaxy loan from about $12.8m to $5.7m - that will be the majority of their cash position ($12.4m Mar 31st) spent on this but on the plus side the monthly repayments reduce further.

Must be touch and go re working capital though.

Shows what we already knew, that they aren't able to cover such a figure.

This is surely a last chance from Galaxy so Argo have til the end of the year to raise enough to cover this $5.7m or bust.

Crocq you're dreaming if you think TGR are going to put out a q1 operational update, there is no chance. They do not share bad news unless they are absolutely forced to, we all know that by now, and it's crystal clear that operations are still running intermittently which likely means H2 run rate at best (200tpm) through q1. A big yoy fall.

It *is* a big month ahead though because they have the CLN coupon to meet this month and we can be damn sure they won't accept shares this time around in lieu of payment. So we either see (i) financing that covers the CLN payment and allows TGR to ramp back up to full production / install the pre concentrate units, (ii) financing that at least covers the CLN payment and keeps TGR in business or (iii) pulled into administration.

B2, I'll be honest and admit that I use to think Thorn offered some much needed balance here but in more recent times it's become patently clear that there is absolutely no situation in which he won't take a contrarian stance, however desperately deep he has to dig for that.

Going for Christina's presenting skills is about as weak of an attack line as it gets and something absolutely no one on here will get on board with. Also the fact that his posts make up something like 35% of all posts on this bb on a Sunday is a sign of a real problematic obsession.

If the cashews deliver in H2 there is no doubt that we’ll see a supportive valuation that comfortably facilitates a raise to wipe out the most pressing of debt and then DKL becomes a multi asset profitable company with a £25m+ mcap.

Make or break over the next quarter or two

So is this paragraph in the recent full year results the only mention of it within an rns?

'The business has a solid and growing pipeline addressing the need for fit-for-purpose testing options and streamlined workflows. The R&D team is also working on a Norovirus RUO assay, which will be ready to go to market in Q2 2024 and has built on the market needs of key strategic customers within the oyster farming community in the UK.'

No, an equity raise isn't feasible at this price to fund the P3, there is no point going ahead with it if that's the only option.

They've done what they can and redesigned the p3 to be a fraction of the cost - £25m really is cheap for a P3 trial where sales could follow at between £0.5B and £1B - but still it can't be raised via equity at a valuation of £8m.

What happens if they fail to partner? Further share price erosion and then bought out for £10m, perhaps?

The PFS was completed in 2018 right? AISC of $662/oz was set against a base case of $1300/oz so a $638/oz margin.

Now we're seeing AISC of ~$1150/oz vs $2300/oz POG (Q2 closed out above that), giving $1150/oz margin currently which could certainly be sustained through to the end of 2026 for the original mine life.

That's enormous and is far greater than the upside case from the PFS which has a margin of ~$850/oz... the price of gold for THX is far outstripping the rise in costs. THX will likely be helped somewhat further by the continuing weakness in the Naira.

***ps I have Canaccord's and Hannam's broker notes if you wanted those? Not ARC's though.

Sorry yeah I did mean that jk. In other words like you say the time-cost meant debt maturity deadlines had caught up with DKL without the requisite cash generation alongside culminating in refinancing becoming necessary.

Those in contact with Lincoln should really push for an IMC interview, it's been a long time again and there are questions that need answering and being held accountable for.