Member Info for HarChris

Taking a look here what with AGL being financed right through 2025 now and aiming to reach cash flow break even around the same time - could someone share the forecasted financials from the broker notes with me? I wondered what revenue expectations are from 2026 onwards...

I don't think i am deramping, my only posts on here really are in response to yours which I consider to be misleading and then we go back and forth with each other.

That summary was close enough to your thinking though. You think the current situation is more market related than management related, fair? I think it's far more management related. You think TGR is a growth stock I think they are in survival mode.

And yes I think Shishir is a uniquely poor ceo.

It’s £100m mcap = $125m US = $175m CAD

Five quarters like the one we’ve just had and that FCF = mcap , net cash around the same level.

This is due a doubling from Segilola alone.

You are attempting to argue that you are right and I am wrong and that by all metrics and definitions TGR is a growing exciting company and the humongous share price collapse is simply a market-wide phenomenon and nout to do with mismanagement. Fine let’s leave it at that if that’s what you’re saying.

'Our review of these options has continued since the Full Year Results and we intend to provide an update to the market in the coming weeks."

That'll be two weeks on Wednesday.

The reality is just starting to kick in here finally - i've been saying for a few weeks now that the interims are a key deadline in which the tide needs to have turned by, I still think we'll be talking 1/2p after that update late Autumn if nothing has materially improved by then.

And no I didn't have to predict results, I'm saying that a growth company doesn't see a six month decline in production at this stage in its development, it definitely doesn't see six months production decline compared to the previous year.

That is a reasonable metric to use, H2 2024 vs H2 2023 but of course that wasn't included in the most recent update because it shows decline.

H2 2023 - 3039t, h2 2024 - 2588t.

What always makes me chuckle with Shishir is the sheer effort he goes to to self promote based on old news and bury bad news with meaningless figures. Compare these two unaudited full year results, 2023 vs 2024. Notice how in the former, where the increased production was something to be pleased with, it's right there at the top of the update as you would expect, 4770t, no missed targets, great. Then compare the most recent one. Is it where it was the previous year? Wait there's a whole page text from Shishir before we get to any actual results. Okay so is the figure given in the 'financial highlights'? What no? Wait now we have a whole summary of the financial position, am I going to have to ctrl f it and type in 'production' to find it?

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/unaudited-trading-results-7w6lufz6fx97ukh.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/unaudited-full-year-2024-trading-results-4mk5elb2bfgeezy.html

It seems that YoY increases in production aren't something to celebrate if you were forecasting it to be 300% higher.

My word, that's quite the rollercoaster and fair play to you for seemingly maintaining a positive outlook!

I had a similar situation with both those companies, but in particular Ncyt, where I made (to me) a small fortune that had me thinking I could do this investment lark semi- full time but have lost a hell of a chunk of it since.

Was meant to say 10 quarters at this level of cash generation, rising to 16-20 quarters (1.5-2.5 yrs extension).

That's anywhere from $250m to $500m cash generation from Segilola at today's margins, with plenty of leeway at this mcap for those margins to fluctuation over the coming 2-3 years.

Last few days of the quarter... Q2 with the extra 1000-1500 oz per month drawn down from circuit is going to blow the bloody doors off. 25k+ oz sold at $2330/oz?! Revenue $59m vs $33.3m in q1? ebitda margin ~65%? Increasing due to the ever weakening Naira? No tax to pay on profits...

Before last pay down of debt we might just see cash generation exceed $25m now! That's a fifth of the market cap this quarter alone with these margins likely to be maintained for a minimum of 10 months, and probably 16-20 months with mine extension as well as new resource underground.

The rest of 2024 will be exciting with explosive figures, MLE at Segilola, Douta PFS and most likely a developing of lithium project plans and with no financials constraints to slow down progress.

Dilution is probably on the way but by no means does that text below prove that - to me that reads as Puruvi simply saying your loyalty and shareholder support (i.e as a holder) will be rewarded once they have got themselves back in a position to start rebuilding the company. In other words stick with us and you'll see returns.

I'm not convinced they'll raise enough to pay all creditors and leave $5m+ to actually grow the company rather than just be back in the same cash constrained position but we'll see in the coming weeks.

I don't have much of a holding but I might build one from this level.

I was taking a look back at the funding to get to this stage, in particular the price of dilutive funding.:

£13m raise at 6p in 2021

£19.8m raised at 5p in 2022

$25m Orion deal - $2.5m shares at 6.39p, $10m cln that converts at 9.45p + warrants at 9.45p, $12.5m tin royalty

With a highly supportive tin price 4p should end up being an incredibly cheap entry if AV can deliver on the enormous potential of ATMs assets and if the lithium price picks back up by the time that side of the business goes live in a few years time. If we get a lithium rns update like has happened most quarters over the past year or so then that'll hopefully kick start the recovery here, especially if we hear more on the increase in planned petalite production from 30000tpa to between 40000tpa and 50000tpa.

Simply increasing revenue doesn't make you a growth company, most FTSE100 businesses see year on year revenue rises but in no way are they in the growth category. Growth companies see exponential increases in all financial metrics, especially after going from explorers to producers. What TGR was targeting was that of a growth company, 30kt capacity in 2022, 84kt capacity by about now, all the way up to 400kt capacity by the end of the decade, in five years time. They were targeting 6100T for Q1 of last year alone! They were well on track even one year ago but what has happened since has totally reversed the course and has led to an 87% decline in SP YoY despite the product they are selling being the one (large and jumbo flake) that has actually seen prices holding up well.

Bull, bear whatever you are I think most on here would agree that TGR is far from a growth company right now.

You also said the capacity had grown YoY and that isn't true, stated capacity was 30k last year and now it's 20k, forgetting what Hemant said.

The reason I am breaking down the production into half years (and quarters if Shishir had shared this helpful info too) is that it gives us an indication of whether we are going to see YoY production growth again this year... so far all we know is that operations are intermittent three months into the next financial year and there's been no raise so the company cash constrained still. Are you backing production this year to grow again?

And more importantly are you backing the company to reach cash flow break even this year which was the goal for second half of last year? That requires not just record production again but about 60% higher production.

Nobody sensible would argue that TGR is currently a growth company, it's fighting for its existence.

Sorry Saluc but that's just not true.

Production has stalled and gone backwards. The best way to show this is breaking down the production figures per half year from 2023.

h1 2023 - 1731T

h2 2023 - 3039T

h1 2024 - 4508T

h2 2024 - 2588T

As the operations are only running intermittently I highly doubt the next h1 results will buck that trend.

If you want to claim growth via capacity alone then look at when 30000T was installed... February 2023. One and a half years later it's now 20000Tpa, it's been downgraded and Hemant claims it's effectively only capable of 15000Tpa. In early 2023 they were forecasting 84000Tpa capacity in the 'immediate' term

You can argue that it's not all Shishir's fault but TGR are well off the growth trajectory now.

As for your other comment we should all agree that Shishir's problem hasn't been failure to spot an opportunity, or a lack of ambition. It's everything else that's been found to be lacking since.

'Plenty of Graphite mining companies out there with millions of secured debt without any actual mines, also at risk of being too late to the party.'

And yet it's TGR that's having the bigger problems in regards to meeting debt repayments. They were unable to meet the mere £170k repayment last July in cash and instead had to agree to pay a larger amount in shares. Jan payment was covered with placing proceeds but we're back to July again and doubts remain over another £170k repayment.

These other peers may be building up debt but they remain fully supported financially, growing their production and downstream whilst TGR treads water, operating only intermittently, downgrading their stated capacity and waiting with their hands outstretched for the Madagascan authorities to cough up.

Hardly inspiring.

I went back and checked and that's fair Mike, last year they were aiming for mid 2024 for Mistral launch. It did take them about 9 months to get the funding over the line though, that's obviously going to push timelines back a bit and is a valid excuse for a delay of a quarter or two.

This is a business that entails huge upfront costs to get major projects off the ground - raising £57.5m in this market is no mean feat and it's over the line and behind them now. I still have some doubts too but Larry and Matt are credible entrepreneurs and are now perfectly placed to have a big impact on this growing market so I for one am willing to take my chances and sit back and see what the next 12 months brings.

Why next quarter? It's always been signalled to launch in late 2024 and that's not changed. No specific timelines have been given but I'd assume it to be Q4 of this year

There's already 100MWh worth of Mistral batteries announced and we'll almost certainly see that magnified once the manufacturing capacity is successfully scaled up - the new Motherwell facility is expected to be operational in Q3 and that alone takes UK assembly capacity to over 500MWh...

For me there's absolutely no doubt that Invinity is going to be producing enormous batteries in the years ahead but the extent to which this investment is a roaring success will depend almost entirely on just how much improvement in margins Mistral ends up producing. With electrolyte supply chain issues a potential limitation too.