Member Info for HarChris

The PFS was completed in 2018 right? AISC of $662/oz was set against a base case of $1300/oz so a $638/oz margin.

Now we're seeing AISC of ~$1150/oz vs $2300/oz POG (Q2 closed out above that), giving $1150/oz margin currently which could certainly be sustained through to the end of 2026 for the original mine life.

That's enormous and is far greater than the upside case from the PFS which has a margin of ~$850/oz... the price of gold for THX is far outstripping the rise in costs. THX will likely be helped somewhat further by the continuing weakness in the Naira.

***ps I have Canaccord's and Hannam's broker notes if you wanted those? Not ARC's though.

Sorry yeah I did mean that jk. In other words like you say the time-cost meant debt maturity deadlines had caught up with DKL without the requisite cash generation alongside culminating in refinancing becoming necessary.

Those in contact with Lincoln should really push for an IMC interview, it's been a long time again and there are questions that need answering and being held accountable for.

We're about to see not a step up but a massive step change in all metrics. Cash generation like nothing seen before for THX, net assets ballooning as well as visibility of what the next 5-10 years looks like for the company in regards to all the assets; Segilola, Douta & the lithium in Nigeria.

Net asset value has increased year on year since IPO, from $75m to $112m by the end of 2023 and now with profits ballooning and other assets soon to be developed we're likely to see that figure closer to $300m than $200m by the end of next year yet the company valuation remains well below the £130m it was at IPO (now £100m/US $125m)

So much catching up to do through the rest of 2024, starting with Q2 operating update in a few weeks, then the q2 financial results in August with Segilola drilling results expected around the same time followed by the released of the Douta PFS.

I think it's important to point out that the downside risk has now reduced considerably following the loans from Youval. The biggest risk in this market is a forced raise at a hefty discount and it's now clear that financing was needed to get the cashew operation to full commercial scale and if it had come via equity who knows at what price it would have been at? But probably no higher than 1p a share. That risk was partly baked in to the current valuation.

I see no reason why holders (and traders) wouldn't sit this out longer now to see if the company delivers on the cashew front in H2 knowing that they aren't at risk of suddenly getting caught on the wrong side of a placing.

As for your best case scenario I agree with that assessment although there is still hope of seeing higher realised prices, CPO prices that edge much closer to the strong international prices. Additionally there seems to be no sign of any medium term change in those strong prices either:

https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/malaysia-palm-oil-paradox-prices-set-to-soar-despite-production-boost-28542

All in all it's really back to where we thought we were.

The main positives are that DKL is fully funded, through non dilutive means, to reach group profitability and is fully backed by the directors financially. Achieve that profitability and quite clearly the valuation, backed against the €50m assets, has room to multiply a good couple of times.

The negatives? Well execution has been so poor on the cashew front for so long that it's kinda difficult to imagine anything but further missteps that fail to take advantage of the opportunity here.

Can't see a sell off from this lowly valuation but equally I doubt there will be much movement north with limited expectation from the quarterly cashew update next month.

"CPO prices at record highs and still DKL screw it up"

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Prices literally decreased from €1025/t to €869/t, it was production that hit record highs... the thing that was within their control. Plenty of reasons to criticise this board but the solid CPO performance isn't one of those things.

Profitability at the group level is in sight now but with how many missteps we've seen in the past I highly doubt it will be priced in until it actually happens.

Youval is about as heavily invested in DKL (68m shares, too?) as it gets though so that's a positive.

'Big chunk missing in the numbers is the sale of Vanchem post year end,'

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Ish. Debt has increased since the date of these results in order to survive and the sale of Vanchem only involves half of the cash consideration upfront so even with the sale going through net debt will be roughly the same as it was in these accounts, with $15m-$20m deferred payments to be received over the next three years.

Unusual step to agree a loan with your own director. Thoughts? Without doubt it’s better than a chunky raise at this level but a bit negative that they needed it in the first place.

Also seems cashew equipment hasn’t arrived in June as anticipated, perhaps July?

We're on the same page, don't get me wrong. And I enjoy your balanced non rampy posts.

Personally, for me, there's a bit too much risk in the short term and what with having limited funds I'll wait to see what happens next before recommitting money here but I do think it will take some big time incompetence to f*** this up what with how supportive the gold environment is.

Chances of this being multiples of where it is now in 12 months time? Pretty high I think.

Haha i've certainly never rated Lincoln and co as inspiring business leaders, that's for sure! They're pedestrian at best. This has always been a contrarian play for me having bought in very low, around this level, with the hope that they'll eventually get things right on the fifth, sixth time of asking. Still think that ( to a degree at least!)

If results are positive i'd rather they were released Monday now rather than after hours today.

Latino you're wrong, this was already known: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BMN/posting-of-circular-and-notice-of-general-meeting-i11ooa24bwvgexu.html

Within the circular there was this: 'Additionally, the Company is in discussions with Orion pursuant to which Orion has indicated, on a non-binding basis, that it will, subject to certain conditions (including completion of the Vanchem Disposal), provide further funding to the Group by matching the additional funds paid by SPR on a $ for $ basis up to a maximum of US$10 million. Further details are set out on paragraph 5 of this letter.'

This is very good news but essentially takes us back to where we were a week ago, rather than being transformational.

Again, those shares weren't bought today, they were bought previously and crossed threshold Monday, so no, timing wasn't as perfectly coincidental as it appears.

He apparently bought another 10m this week though so he's making some of his losses back

EBITDA is a very useful metric but for Hummingbird right now it's not quite so useful. That's because front and centre is the significant debt that is meant to be paid off this year. So let's go back to the q4 results rns at the end of Jan:

'The Company remains focused on material balance sheet deleveraging, which will commence in Q12024 with scheduled debt repayments of c.US$77 million in FY-2024, c.US$61 million in FY-2025, and the remainder c.US$15 million payable by the end of FY-2028. '

The above is why I pointed out to Bushy that $75m ebitda, which isn't free cash, wouldn't be anywhere near enough to avoid debt related issues this year.

Then in the Q1 update there was this: 'During Q1-2024, the Company repaid US$9 million of debt excluding interest. The Company also drew down US$6.3 million of existing debt facilities during the quarter'

A month later in the full year results going concern statement was this: ''These cash flows showed that due to delays in meeting commercial production at Kouroussa, plus the temporary stoppage by the mining contractor on 17 March 2024, and the impact this had on accessing the high-grade ore, the Group will need to reschedule its debt repayment and/or will require additional funding to meet its financial obligations and service its debt.

To mitigate the impact of the stoppage and delays in meeting commercial production and facilitate a smooth transition back to full operations at Kouroussa, the Group's majority shareholder, CIG SA ("CIG") has agreed to provide the Group with a short-term loan of US$10 million of which US$8 million has been received as of 31 May 2024. Further, the Group remains in discussions with its primary lender, Coris Bank International ("Coris"), surrounding the mitigation of the financial impacts of the suspension in operation. These discussions include reviews on current debt repayments profile together with options for further funding.''

And we also know from the next update that there's a near term deadline for this: 'To facilitate a smooth transition back to full operations by Corica, CIG has agreed to provide the Company with a short-term loan of US$10 million (the "CIG Loan"). The CIG Loan will be provided in tranches, is unsecured, attracts interest at a rate of 14% per annum and has a maturity date of 30 September 2024, which can be extended by mutual agreement.'

What I'm trying to point out is that the near term outlook will entirely depend on (i) actually meeting this new q3 timeline for reaching commercial production at Kouroussa and (ii) strong support from creditors in regards to rescheduling certain debt repayments ,otherwise further financing is needed this year.

Read the rns carefully - the threshold cross was on the 24th, Monday. He will have actually been buying shares before the further fall and then possibly bought way more immediately following the afternoon news.

There's no inside info, far from it, just a wealthy individual taking a huge risk and lowering their average further on the hope that BMN do get through this... but I'm with Ben, I think it's game over sadly.

Coming back to your original question Guvvi good to see confirmation that the quarter is closing out well above $2300/oz as I had calculated too:

BBN knows his onions: https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1806611697865576951

I know there's lots of issues with the auditing process right now, lack of auditors etc but this is an own goal.

If the results are released after hours and they're positive it should make the ground back up but frustrating all the same.

Bushy FCF and EBITDA are NOT the same thing.

A simple investopedia article or anything similar will explain the differences.

Crossed many thresholds he says and tr1s sent to Bmn yet mgmt haven’t released. 11% now owned by Portillion (also in tweet) and 150m shares personally.

Only his word though until it’s officially proven.

KS has been buying, at least as of yesterday. He told me he believes the rns was actually good and others ‘misinterpreted’ it 🤷

Not my read but hey, different views make a market I guess. And I think he now owns a huge amount of the company with plans to throw his weight around (if it survives).

A solid update in July and all those on the sidelines will be buying in with gusto so let's see.