Member Info for HarChris

Apparently they have up until pre market Monday to release these results so there's no reason to assume they are going to be late with the shares suspended.

Agree it's poor though considering how much work there is to be done to win back trust.

I will say it. one. last. time.

Throwing out ebitda numbers is really not that useful in a year where HUM has a significant debt schedule to follow. It's about producing cold hard cash at the right time to meet all obligations and being in a position to then make hay next year assuming the gold environment is still as supportive.

There is no doubt that the gold price is highly supportive right now and will likely be the saving grace for HUM. Kou does need to reach commercial production in Q3 though with no more slipped timelines otherwise the next major event will be refinancing on a poor footing.

That's where the risk/reward comes in, HUM is now higher risk than other goldies but the reward is certainly greater too if the hitches at Kouroussa are behind them.

Cash generation and being able to meet debt repayments this year is what's relevant, not throwing out meaningless ebitda metrics.

''To facilitate a smooth transition back to full operations by Corica, CIG has agreed to provide the Company with a short-term loan of US$10 million (the "CIG Loan"). The CIG Loan will be provided in tranches, is unsecured, attracts interest at a rate of 14% per annum and has a maturity date of 30 September 2024, which can be extended by mutual agreement.''

Yes it can be extended but by mutual agreement, not just at HUMs request. This, plus the $85m of short term borrowings due end of Dec, will determine HUMs future to a significant degree hence the necessity to actually ramp up Kou operations in Q3 and meet this new timeline of Dan's.

$75m (100k oz) ebitda won't cut it, need to be close to 150k oz this year even at this higher gold price.

Yes I do realise that, hence my point that there’s a lot of missed revenue this year compared to what was expected end of 2023.

End of 2023 hedge and collar price shows that there was an expectation of higher gold prices back then that HUM didn’t want to miss out on but also wanted to protect against potential lower gold prices. It shows that high gold prices were expected against a 200k production forecast so you can’t claim that POG is cancelling out the large number of ounces being lost vis a vis forecast. It makes up for some of the missed ounces but certainly not 50k lost, or 70k lost, depending on the eventual figure for 2024.

If Kou does reach commercial production in Q3 and POG stays this strong well into 2025 it will cancel out most of the lost revs and be back on track but if either those two events fail to materialise Hum will run into problems.

Higher risk than other AIM goldies.

Paying it in cash tells the market a hell of a lot - it says 'we are worth far more than £180m', it says 'we won't dilute excessively at a depressed valuation to an entity that'll dump those shares immediately', it says 'we have full confidence of selling Dx', it says 'we have full confidence of landing a license deal within 12 months'

Maintaining a high share price is mighty important in maximising returns long term.

It's been made fairly clear from comments I've heard that the intention of mgmt is very much to pay the next one in July in cash so I highly doubt 50p is the level in which that would change.

Were the share price to surge north towards £1 over the coming weeks then that might change.

Here's another way to look at it:

On the 7th Dec 2023 HUM was able to raise at 11.26p, forecasting 200k ounces for 2024 and entering into the hedge and collar arrangement so it's fair to assume at that point investors expected revenue for 2024 to be ~$430m. Not guaranteed because the hedge was only for a portion of the production but a fair estimate using $2150/oz as that sits within the hedge and collar price.

To hit that target now at a 2024 average of $2300/oz would require 187k ounces sold in 2024 - not happening. So the question is how short of that expected revenue figure are they going to be? 65k oz short perhaps? Even at the higher gold price vs the expected price back in Dec that's still well over $100m less revenue than hoped.

Explains why the share price is 25% down on the placing price of last December, especially with the debt risk that comes into focus if Dan once again fails to meet the timeline he's set for commercial production at Kouroussa

F*** the 170p 52 week high, the impressive new leadership, the 18 months of funding plus two near term sources of non dilutive funding to take P2 all the way though clinic..yeah as long as they can get to 51p and make 2% before fees on their investment the placees will be out quick as a flash.

Those profits will pay for a couple of pints at the Tank & Paddle in EC2

I assume that too (with slight improvement) - let’s remember the share price was around 3.1p after those results so if it gets back to that for starters I’d breathe a sigh of relief.

Got to be before June is out, that's the deadline so yes definitely this week.

The rise into results bodes well, expecting a healthy profit seen for last year, a good chunk of debt paid down and hopefully some commentary on the cashew front.

Nah you're one of the better posters CS, your genuine non-biased thoughts are refreshing.

I wasn't having a dig, just pointing out that LRs short term interests don't align neatly with yours (or he's just as useless as the rest and i'm talking bollo***!)

Even if we take the view that it's in no way linked to a worsening of relationships between TGR mgmt/Shishir and the Madagascan authorities I guess one point of contention re the vat refund is what level of intuition should we expect from a CEO? If you base your near term strategy around receiving a $2m rebate and then you don't get it shouldn't the blame fall on your shoulders? Have you not made the wrong call / failed to put alternative solutions in place? If you don't take into account a near term election isn't that a lack of foresight on your part?

I don't think the recent excuses cut it after nine months of waiting on that money and all the talks and meetings that will have taken place in between... after all that if you claim the funds will be received imminently then that better happen or it's added to the list of missteps at the very least.

The biggest beneficiary particularly because of the five year tax holiday - no other goldie is seeing every dollar increase in gold price crystallising into cold hard cash.

Yeah I'm sure LR will prove to be wholly self-interested in his management style which should still work out for long termers (and that ltip) but less so in the short term when there's no gain for him and his fellow directors like Joanne to make an impact through a new and focused communications approach.

It's going to frustrate you and your 70p exit CS.

Do post more as now I feel like the guy talking to himself all day!

Firstly avct was sitting on ~£13m at the time of the raise, end of Feb. Also placing was £31m gross, that's probably under £30m net. Add that together you have ~£43m end of Feb, £35m end of May. That would imply £2.66m per month but it's a period that coincided with AS leaving (big pay check?) Christina joining (big pay check?) and Dx still consuming rather than generating cash.

Probably fair to assume £2m-£2.25m pm cash burn going forward i.e £35m giving 15-18 months of cash runway.

Exactly. Christina is reshaping this business in lightning quick time. The share price might be stubborn with so many traders using this as their plaything but given time there will be enough news and momentum for the floodgates to open and for a proper rerate.

Build it and they will come.

'· The financial performance for the year to date is in-line with market forecasts and the Group's unaudited cash position as at 31 May 2024 was circa £35 million, which provides sufficient funds to progress AVA6000 into Phase 2 clinical trials and develop the Group's wider pipeline of innovative new medicines.'

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That should shut up those on here saying 9 months of cash left.

Let's see if we get an rns first thing tomorrow then ahead of the AGM... or perhaps LR wants to finish off his buying before the release!