Member Info for HarChris

It will include seven days in the dma even though gold doesn’t trade at weekends - those seven days in question are much higher than the seven days being replaced in March (~$2150 vs $2320) so it will make a big difference.

POG is going to average $2300/oz for q2 - that’s what the OP was asking.

Recheck that 90dma at the end of the month and then issue an apology

You’re abusive and you’re wrong - that 90dma goes right back into the last week of March where prices were lower and pulls the average down below $2300/oz.

If gold holds at this level q2 will close out above $2300/oz average.

For reference the Capital Markets broker note (TP 30p) has POG at just $2084/oz for 2024 and $2177/oz for 2025 and cash position still comes in at $61m by the end of 2024 and $150m by the end of 2025!

Let's say POG actually averages $2300/oz for the entire year, this year and next (certainly no guarantees but possible) that's ~$35m more cash straight to the bank (no tax paid on profits) by the end of 2025, everything else equal, so $185m by the end of 2025 (with $5m long term debt remaining).

Crazy numbers and all POG has to do is stay where it is yet many forecasters are tipping it to go even higher.

Yes that's my take and let's not forget that up until now the balance sheet doesn't look that amazing.

End of March cash was $2.8m and net debt $14.3m, hardly inspiring to an onlooker having a mere glance at THX. But it's now when that starts to radically transform with POG so high and gold in circuit is drawn down... debt will be zero within a few quarters and net debt becomes net cash and then ~$25m jumps in cash per quarter.

As Segun said they are close to having the balance sheet to start looking at exciting opportunities and a possible dividend policy being put in place - I think this gets an almighty pump when that happens, be it in a month with q2 results or later in 2024.

It was also low in terms of production so I imagine it all levels out over the year and the margin remains the same.

There isn't an obvious bear case at this gold price but of course there's always the possibility that POG suddenly falls off a cliff and no further ounces are found. Also I guess there's always the jurisdiction risk, for both Nigeria and Senegal?

Have to go looking for downsides at this price though. Personally I think it's simply a lack of liquidity and trader interest that's seen it fail to push on from 15p and I reckon we'll see lots of loading up in the coming weeks ready for the next eye catching results to land in mid July.

I think it was one of the last interviews that Segun speaks of a conservative $1000/oz margin and FCF of $300m before the 5 year mine life is up - so $300m+ fcf before a further ounce is found (assumed gold at $2150 and aisc mid range). Margin right now is likely a fair bit higher than that.

The focus has been on paying down the senior debt facility but we're very close to seeing that reduce to zero and that's when Segun has spoken of optionality kicking in as the cash position starts to magnify in size.

I'm not talking operational cash flow, that's much higher. Cash costs come in at ~$900/oz and gold is now averaging $2300/oz.

Free cash flow -pre debt repayments -is what could be as high as $30m per quarter / $120m per year. So for example if $30m was seen this quarter I think $9m pays down the senior debt facility and cash rises by $21m. Then q3 the final $6m of the debt would be paid off and cash would rise $24m. Every quarter after that would be FCF and straight to bank so the cash position would really start to balloon.

Hard to say how much difference this weak Naira will make - my guess is not as much as we'd likebut $50-$100 reduction in aisc ? With no tax to pay on profits that's still $5m - $10m in pure cash if that's the case.

Anyone heard from WildTiger since his most recent buys? Would like to know what the AI algorithm is saying now.

Are you sure? I think it's higher. Look at the gold price charts, besides the first five days of April and a day or two in May and June POG hasn't been below $2300/oz. I think April to June is looking more like $2330/oz average.

And to add 2023 was always forecasted to be a lower production year in the mine plan. Things have fallen highly favourably for THX though, with all the capital at Segilola now sunk with the easy ounces to mine and draw down from circuit through the rest of the mine plan which makes execution going forward very low risk (in comparison). This is something that is not being discussed enough... the higher risk work has been done and now we can very confidently expect this ~25k oz per month alongside this $1100/$1200 aisc.

Q2 ends Friday and is going to average over $2300/oz with Q3 starting even higher. The Naira has depreciated to such a drastic degree that we really should be looking at the lower end so that's $1200/oz margin on 25k ounces - $30m FCF for one quarter, extrapolated out for a year that's essentially the market cap.

It is no wonder that the CFO snapped up 100,000 shares the other week.

I was hoping for a response from a sensible poster, not you.

AGL were already funded til q1 2025 but moved early on the placing as is sensible - agreed it only adds four or five months but if the revenue comes through as hoped over the next 6 or so months it takes them to the end of 2025.

Huge upside if they do achieve break even by that time, further downside if not I guess

Segilola is forecast to deliver 25k ounces every quarter for 3 years from now. Despite input rises, most notably ammonium nitrate and diesel, AISC should at worst come in at $1200/oz (naira devaluation could see this sub $1100/oz) so at $2300/oz that's $27.5m FCF per quarter, for twelve quarters, before we talk Mine Life Extension. $27.5m x 12 = $330m against current mcap of $125m. Therefore all things being equal if THX fail to find a single ounce more of gold from Segolila or other projects then there is still more than a doubling to be had here with plenty of margin for error.

How likely is it that THX fail to find another ounce of gold? Not at all... for starters there is 140k oz of underground resource as a minimum to go at with further smaller deposits unearthed during the recent drilling campaigns. Add further drilling underground and I think we can conservatively estimate 200k more ounces from Segilola providing significantly more FCF (not sure what aisc would be for this.

Further drilling results from Douta are due and then the PFS at some point in H2, signalled for Sept/Oct time. Here we are looking at another 100k oz mine but this time with a 10 year mine life. Just think what a position THX should be in in a few years time to build Douta, swimming in cash and having proved up their ability to develop a mine in Nigeria.

And then there's the lithium that could really turn some heads if drilling results and the maiden resource due end of this year coincides with the long awaited rise in lithium prices.

It's only been listed for a few short years but there's no doubt that it's in by far the best position its been in by some margin and yet needs a 55% rise just to get back to the highs it saw last year with POG a mere $1950/oz.

That's not true cj, they had ~£13.5m end of Feb at time of funding, then raised £31.1m, call it £30m net. At ~£1.5m cash burn per month that's 29 months from February 2024.

Dx should be cash generative soon so that reduces cash burn but then allow an extra £0.5m per month for preclinical pipeline and subtract one Heights payment which I think is highly likely and that 27 months reduces to about 21 months.

'Approximately 9 months of funding left' is frankly untrue however they might end up raising again around that time if no LD or Dx sale comes beforehand in order to be fully cashed up before the signing of accounts in April/May.

Hopefully the data coming out of the 2 weekly study in the coming months is so compelling that the sort of offer I described below would fail - I'm not sure when that data will start becoming available but I'm assuming August/Sept time?

Truth is any TO at this stage would be somewhere between the silly £1 suggestion and £10. Not because that's what a proven pre|CISION platform is worth (it would be worth double digit billions) but because (i) there's still risks along that path, particularly execution risk and (ii) there will be far more shares than 360m if avct goes it alone for another 18 months or so.

I'd take a TO now around £3 without all the stress and fortitude needed to hold on as the sp doubles and trebles from here but I'm sure most on here would be willing to see this through to a much better conclusion.

To be fair the BMN share price was 30X higher when AV left than it is today.

Not sure it's his fault that BMN is about to go under!

I have a habit of posting on stocks I think I have insight on even if i'm not invested which I know is annoying. And I think that's fair, I probably do hold a grudge because I believe Shishir misled investors, and me personally, throughout last year which led me to buy more and more and lose more and more when little to none of what he promised came to fruition.

Maybe this time it'll be different and he'll prove me wrong and make you far wealthier as a result !

Taking a look here what with AGL being financed right through 2025 now and aiming to reach cash flow break even around the same time - could someone share the forecasted financials from the broker notes with me? I wondered what revenue expectations are from 2026 onwards...