Member Info for HarChris

'I'm not sure referencing share prices prior to this is particularly relevant to the current share price?'

Well it facilitated AVCT's £48m raise in 2020 with minimal dilution, without the LFT and covid there's no way they'd be funded right through to late 2025 re AVA6000 and with the ability to take there into 2026 through a sale of their DX biz.

So the past is somewhat relevant to progressing AVA6000 so far (into P2) with still only 360m shares in issue.

Chris and Nigel haven't been in their roles long at DEST. They've gone away and redesigned the phase 3 trial to reduce the cost from ~£60m to £25m and are now going back to potential partners and funders with this new improved proposition.

They are being written off on here as having failed to secure non dilutive funding way, way too early.

We wait and see but they only deserve the ire if they do end up placing tons and tons of shares at 10p or below, that is far from definite right now.

Haha and in case I'm accused of being a bit too positive after buying down here at these lows let me just say that I think that that 'fair value' below is absolutely BS!

Neon, this is why it's so important to analyse each case individual whilst also understanding the general outlook for small pharma and why a sell off like this has occurred.

DEST is incentivised to take an offer from a SI, even if giving up a lot of the asset, because they can't raise the sort of funds they need at the sort of deep discount you've just described with POLX, in this instance something like 5p a share.

I'm heartened by DEST being able to go back to those potential partners with a radically changed P3 that requires a fraction of the funding of what it did previously and believe they can pull off a deal so I think it's worth buying down here, especially as they still have six months to decide what funding route to take... but it's high risk no doubt and not for everyone!

There isn't much you can do about that in this market for a cash hungry drug development company.

Those like me with a low average would obviously much rather a partnership with an investor that takes on the risk and funds this P3. Yes eventual profits to Dest would be a lot lower but at £11m mcap vs the $0.5B-$1B sales in the US alone they'd obviously be many multiples to the upside to be seen still if P3 is successful.

I thought the answer was reasonable to be honest. 'we're laser focused on trying to license this product and nothing's changed from that point of view' and then goes on to say he can't really comment re the dilutive fundraising i.e obviously it can't be completely ruled out.

Also the update following the review of strategic options in the coming weeks is only meant to inform shareholders of where they are at on the financing front, on progress made re licensing and partners etc rather than funding being wrapped up in the coming weeks...

I'm not ignorant enough to think that a sudden placing is off the table, obviously it's a possibility and we've seen it a lot on AIM recently but I think it was worth taking the risk of buying today at 12p.

The last sentence was in reference to a placing. We all know the worst thing you can do when attempting to get an equity raise away is to broadcast that fact, to state that it’s happening in the next couple of weeks - that’s suicide.

So either that’s what they were referring to today and they’ve totally shot themselves in the foot or we are soon to be surprised by a better deal that involves a partner taking on the risk for a large slice of the pie, which will still be preferable to shareholders in the short-medium term.

That wasn't my take.

I thought the presentation was very positive, really highlighting why XF73 is different, is distinct from other antibiotic drugs.

£25m really is cheap for a P3 trial where sales could follow at between £0.5B and £1B.

Chris is a smart cookie with lots of experience, I believe they will pull off non dilutive funding here, at least alongside some dilutive funding - otherwise there isn't much point going through with P3 - at 10p they'd have to issue almost 3X as many shares as they current have in issue just to complete it.

If he really thought they were going down the traditional placing route they aren't mentioning funding today as often as they did when there's still 6-9 months before they run out of cash.

No way can they buy shares just before sorting the finance - imagine it's a strong licensing deal and the sp multibags in the weeks following.

It was silly if they end up having to do a placing but they've said in the q&a that they are 'actively looking at multiple sources of non dilutive financing'.

Doesn't guarantee it but at least that's clearly what they're pushing for.

Presentation now uploaded to IMC website

BBN... especially as they still have six to nine months before the cash runs out... there's no logic to discussing a future placing so advertently today. It would be different if we all knew they needed refinancing ASAP.

'you think it gets easier? lol '

No, I just think whether the share price bottoms at 50p over the coming weeks or 40p it will make absolutely zero difference as to whether LR ends up being remunerated from the LTIP. Zero.

That was my thinking, although they'll also be aware that a stampede for the exit will do themselves no favours so perhaps, even if they don't have an agenda, they'll sell down gradually and hope Shishir pulls off a reasonable finance deal in the meantime?

CFO buys 100000 shares for ~£16k - i'll take that as a vote of confidence one month out from Q2 results.

Possibly the last opportunity in a while for director purchases what with the Q2 results, closely followed by interims, closely followed by Douta PFS and Segilola MLE news.

The bigger difference is that AGL had the market cap to raise what they needed via straight equity, DEST doesn't and hence there's a greater chance that DEST goes down a different route ie partnership.

If they do place though it will be highly dilutive unfortunately and a huge blow seeing as they were valued as high as 84p six months ago and there's been good news and progress since.

Following the last trading update and all this recent upheaval i expected the SP to crash well below what it was at the time (which was about 5.5p) so fair play for that. The market hasn't written off Shishir just yet that's for sure although those unhappy with him, holding 38m shares, might make things difficult if they start selling.

Not ideal but 6-9 months on runway is certainly better than negotiating when right on the edge like so many have found themselves in recently.

Ps you've already said you're out at ~70p and so have others on here so if LR goes about boosting the share price in the short term all he does is provide an exit for the likes of you and possibly me - i.e irrelevant to NCYT medium term.

I don't agree re this: 'The more it drops the more work he has to to get near his £1.38 figure.'

Nor this : 'He needs to try and keep us'

It's all about operational progress from here on out, whether we are here or not. Transform the company into a profitable one and the sp will be above that £1.38 target in the blink of an eye - the SP will stay in the doldrums, whether 40p or 60p, until that progress is visible.