Member Info for HarChris

No he clearly means ncyt won’t agree a deal on the initial £130m dhsc claim but might on the £81m counterclaim ie £20m + legal fees + interest.

I’d certainly take that.

Certainly a few punters having a bet on this afternoon - 70p paid.

So we'd be talking a court settlement rather than an out of court settlement? Seems unusual to me although it could be in relation to the hearing that took place last week?

Come on NCYT drop that rns after hours!

You can never rule out anything on a share like Argo but I think it's at least reasonable at this stage to think that a steady climb to $100k in BTC over the next three months or so (and it would have to be within six months) wouldn't necessarily see the share price climb as high as 20p.

Yeah but it does feel like there's a less and less buying pressure on the BTC spikes now as we get closer to the hosting agreement ending and probably because we've passed the halving - I don't think there's many on the sidelines ready to jump in on the slightest BTC rise like there used to be.

I know there's a lot of mindless investors out there but even they will be able to see that a fall in revenue per month from as high as $7m in March to just $2.9m in May signals the end is nigh.

You say that but be honest, nine months ago for example with BTC at $28k and Argo at 9.5p would you have thought a rise to $70k would see just 0.5p share price appreciation?

Six months ago Argo share price was 12.5p and BTC was ~$36k...

There isn't mindless cash being thrown at Argo anymore, investors are traders are aware that the risks aren't worth the reward.

Is anyone going to the AGM tomorrow? I presume nothing will be streamed online so just have to wait for the result later that day?

I think it's more a curio for some of us. I've rarely come across a company that has absolutely no fundamental investment case beyond the commodity they are mining going on a crazy ride in the very near term - that's unusual.

As for going to 20p+ now CLSK i'm rather doubtful of that. Each monthly update is going to put a dampener on shareholder enthusiasm and by the end of August the ugly interims will have to be released in which nothing can be hidden. I also think any rise would be pounced upon by management to get a placing away and instis are going to demand a discount with the business in such a perilous state as the hosting agreement and debt call draws closer.

I've just signed up on IG and doing a bit of research - maybe I will follow through for once micoley on this one :)

Thanks Hexam.

My point about not being worth 2p is I don’t think anyone would buy Argo for any price because you are taking on more debt than the machines and facilities are worth, there’s no logic to that besides taking a punt that btc will rise dramatically soon after sale and you’ll generate cash for the following two years.

The markets aren’t efficient at pricing companies so you can still trade at totally irrational valuations like Argo is and it does mean that you have the possibility of a turnaround if you can raise against that totally inflated valuation but that’s it.

Like CLSK has said they need ~$100m realistically and it’s impossible to imagine that’ll happen. At most maybe $20m at deeply discounted prices which will allow them to stumble on a bit longer once again but it’s all delaying the inevitable.

I’m near as certain as I can be that Argo goes to zero within a year, or a few pence if they’ve diluted into oblivion to survive a bit longer but that doesn’t mean there isn’t some irrational temporary pump first that wipes me out.

So no but mainly because I’ve never shorted before and it requires a bit more technical ability than simply placing trades on HL !

No fireworks but positive all the same, looking at ~€18.5m revs for the first half of the year which should keep delivering profit.

Obviously everything rests on finally delivering on the cashew front so the next update is a biggie.

At best Argo's facilities and old gen machines are 'worth' ~$45m now and if up for sale at distressed prices barely half that. That's all Argo has + ~9m cash against debts of $50m and near term maturity on just over a quarter of that as well as loss making.

It wouldn't make sense to buy Argo for even 2p and for that entity to assume all the debt for what are old machines that will begin needing to be replaced in the coming years.

It's gone to trial after all this time, there's a case to be heard from both sides so no Judge Jefford isn't going to come to an early conclusion like that.

We've been informed by Novacyt that it runs from 10th June to 4th July and they expect the court to reserve judgement so that shows it isn't cut and dry.

Brilliant, thanks Amers!

I'm thinking to head up later in the week, possibly Thursday or Friday.

Let's say BTC goes to $100k by September. Difficulty would also rise by probably half as much so revenue would only increase modestly, probably to about cash flow break even but still massively loss making.

At this point Argo would probably be quite close to the bone in terms of cash position and then they would need to find close to $13m at the end of the year when their loan to Galaxy matures (with a further $38m debt remaining). They will also need to renew the hosting agreement.

So fundamentally speaking Argo is screwed. Could that sort of rise in BTC support a placing before the year end to keep Argo in business? Yeah it might but they'll need to raise far more than the previous placings to be able to cover the Galaxy payment and continue operating. A tall ask.

Realistically BTC needs to pop and go far past $100k in the next few months for Argo to still be going in its current form into 2025.

15000 x ~£650p/t perhaps so close to £10m?

A neutral result that returns a small amount to Novacyt from the VAT and the share price will be well above a pound due to the major uncertainty and risk being behind them.

A win in full will be a major shock to the market. Only a few holders expect that, the wider market doesn’t whatsoever so we would see an absolute pile on over a number of trading days.

It will peak and then come down but that peak will almost certainly be above £2.

A win +£80m would almost certainly lead to a spike that takes the share price to £2, probably higher, but to settle at that price over the rest of 2024 will require operational progress and evidence that all the YG potential can be realised.

A win and strong operational progress from the new CEO and the likes of £4, £5 would be achievable. That's a lot of ifs though.

Something that's often overlooked is just how resilient large and jumbo flake graphite prices have been over the past year or so. One excuse I see often here is how all graphite producers are struggling because of the price but that isn't a fair argument - TGRs basket in Vatomina and Sahamamy is mainly large and jumbo flake, these products have seen prices remain high whereas the likes of Syrah and others with their small flake and anode products have been put under much greater pressure due to that uncontrollable outside factor.

In the below link look at Flake Graphite +195 and Flake Graphite +895. The operational failure over the past year has blown a golden opportunity to make significant headway on its peers.

https://www.asianmetal.com/Graphite/

Is it open to the public? Anyone going along next week?