Member Info for HarChris

Novacyt are not reliant on further funds from winning the case so is there's an appeal and delay it doesn't really change anything if it ends up taking months, even a year or two to receive it. Cash burn, especially as m&a is not a focus, should exceed three years with the cost cutting measures and that's the time in which Novacyt need to reach profitability.

All extra cash does is derisk the investment further / open up M&A options.

No Ventura it's far more complicated than that. Most likely the creditors would have been given first dibs on the assets as their form of payment and the whole process would have taken months if not years.

Don't forget when they were valued at £90m they also had significant liabilities, that's par for the course. Usually acquirers will just take on that debt themselves but Novacyt had cash that wasn't spoken for so chose to just write it all off.

There's also the added element of seeing it as a reverse takeover of sorts with it being a solution to the long running issue of finding a new executive team. That wouldn't have been the case if they'd got hold of some of the assets via administration.

How many UK based diagnostics companies would have had the cash to usurp Novacyt's bid? How many would then also have the cash to fund it like it needs?

Very few. And in this market it isn't easy to get a raise away quickly to fund an acquisition so that explains the lack of competition.

Still, as I've pointed out before until they ran out of money it was valued at close to £100m and had strong institutional backing so obviously others have recognised the potential in the past.

That 1.5 EPS was from a mere 19k oz sold at 'just' $2033/oz... through the rest of the year we should be looking at more like 25k oz at $2300/oz.

I think we could easily see 9p net earnings this year.

Barring some sort of unforeseen disaster this must be as close to printing money as it gets.

PI, you really don't bother to read the rns' do you?

'Cash decreased substantially during 2023 as a result of the acquisition of Yourgene, which consumed circa £27.6m of cash. This included paying down Yourgene liabilities acquired such as bank loans, contingent liabilities and advisors' fees, the initial cash consideration and Novacyt advisor fees. '

Was pleased to hear that. After spending £26m on YG and clearly valuing its potential enormously it would be distracting to spend another half a year attempting to integrate another business - building out this joint venture is enough for the time being although i'm sure small bolt on acquisitions will remain an option a little further down the line.

To be fair the market was very different 2021 and before as I pointed out previously. Companies were being valued on revenue growth not on cash and then the markets turned on a dime and AIM companies suddenly got wiped out. It's possible he moves with the time and gets the environment he is now operating within.

This is a much better presentation in my opinion but the Q&A will be the most telling.

Lyn talking about protecting cash as a key focus, how cash is king in this market. Should achieve £5m of annualised savings so I take that to mean current cash burn from £13.5m to £8.5m, extending cash runway to over 4 years all things being equal.

No, 99.9% of companies trade above their net cash position, that's not unique. Still trading well below net asset value.

Does the risk increase as cash falls? Yes. This is a bet on LR driving Novacyt to profitability within three years, if so the mcap will be £100m and beyond. If not things will get tougher.

Further funds from the dispute will boost that cash runway / increase that chance.

It always makes me laugh how busy with work PI is whenever the share price is on the rise and yet manages to free up some time on the down days. Just a happy coincidence!

This close to the trial the sp is much a muchness but let’s see if lr restores a bit of faith with this webinar and q&a.

Whilst I've not gone into it in detail at first glance the raw data looks legitimate and it does certainly bring into question the claims made my the requisitioning group and does leave me with doubts over Hemant's role in all of this.

Thank you Akhtar - if I have more to add after going through it properly i'll share it on here.

Well. what was unique about Shanta was it happened during this long depressed period for gold miners and before the big move in gold prices to new all time highs. They got it away just in time.

It's certainly a risk all the whilst sentiment remains so poor for gold miners but there's every reason that that will change over the sort of time horizon you're alluding to here.

I'm always honest, this update certainly won't have people urgently accumulating shares, it's a bit disappointing and shows why the board changes have happened as speedily as they have. The new group needs someone that knows YG inside out and at least has a plan to turn it from heavily loss making to profitable. Sure the naysayers will say 'what the same man that oversaw its near demise?!' but yes, I think so.

It's all about the trial now, anything from neutral to a win for ncyt and there will be tremendous value from this level.

The price is where it was a few days ago, it's essentially flat.

The long termers here are almost unanimously in agreement that a change needed to be seen at the top and are happy with Lyn taking the reins as CEO. This entire update is based on James' performance as CEO, the 2023 results AND the four months up until the end of April. Lyn started on the 1st May so yes the results aren't great but it's from this point forward that we get to see what the new CEO and new board are capable of.

Three years is a great cash runway for an AIM company. Yes this sort of investment isn't for everyone, buying YG is a risk that either pays off massively in a few years time or eventually punishes ncyt but that's the nature of AIM investments attempting to turn big potential into profits.

There are thousands of other companies for you to invest in if this doesn't suit your risk appetite.

That's the way to look at it VH - in a poorer gold environment SRB would be needing to raise to build Coringa to a 60k oz operation but the buoyant price environment allows it to be done from internal cash generation - that's a biggie and just means delayed gratification!

Costs cut from Novacyt end I assume, YG was and still is heavily loss making.

Still, at £13.5m a year that's three years to sort that out assuming neutral result from dispute (£8m vat returned at a min).

'Mine development costs of $1.6 million represent an additional $1.2 million cost compared to the first quarter of 2023, adding approximately $130 per ounce to the AISC for the quarter but this up-front investment is necessary to deliver the longer term production growth and in turn, reduce the long-term AISC. We need to incur the costs associated with the build of the Coringa crushing and ore sorting plant for the first 9 months of 2024, without seeing the benefit of materially improved grades from ore-sorting and significantly reduced trucking and process costs until Q4 2024 and throughout 2025.'

Once the build out is complete AISC is forecast to be sub $1400/oz

£1.9m cost relating to the DHSC dispute last year and already £3.3m through the first four months of 2024... the DHSC almost got their wish to drive NCYT to the edge and force them to back down and settle after all.

As thought YG acquisition in total cost a lot more than the headline £16.7m, coming in at £27.6m.

Overall reads much easier than past full year results from previous CEOs- looking forward to IMC

Yeah I understand. Well in terms of IMC they close pre submitted questions about 24 hours before the event but they open up again during webinar so you can still submit questions tomorrow.

Perhaps one of them should be highlighting the shi*show of their investor relations department!