Member Info for HarChris

Whilst it shouldn't be too difficult to cobble together a few hundred K to cover the CLN payment it sums up the ridiculousness of what's going on that there's a possibility that the special resolution is rejected and Shishir and co remain only for Koots and the other CLN holders to pull TGR into administration just a few weeks later.

Shishir needs to be laser focused on pulling off near term funding not dedicating all these days to convincing individual shareholders to vote for him. He tried all this in September last year and all it did was create more angry shareholders like myself having been absolutely assured that things were about to turn and improve for the better (with share price at 20p)

Oh wait I forgot they took part at 20.5p a share. Talk about timing the top.

Haha that is great news indeed!

You have to remember that the last placing was in early Jan, institutional investors had seen what previously had happened to the Argo share price when bitcoin pumped and so taking part at 10p and keeping Argo afloat until late 2024 was a gamble that obviously thought was worth the risk, especially with the possibility of bitcoin rallying hard around the halving.

Since we've seen BTC hit new all time highs without much of a reaction to Argo sp and now the halving has come and gone with no appreciable increase in BTC price or difficulty adjustment downwards and so the options are running out for Argo. Something drastic has to happen in Argo's favour in the coming months or it really is game over.

Phase 1a heading straight into 1b and then the pivotal phase 2 will feel like a sprint compared to the slow marathon of phase 1a... and with it comes ever more meaningful and relevant data.

So yes now the market has overreacted to the downside, as it so often does after being overheated, this is the time to be a tad patient and wait that little bit longer for momentum to take a hold through the rest of 2024 and 2025. And it very likely will.

Took far longer than expected, victim of its own success etc etc but the most important thing is that we're now closer to AVA6000 treating Sarcoma patients than we are the start of the trial - things will speed up greatly now for a whole number of reasons positive data helping with recruitment etc).

What on earth are you talking about? Yes Avacta has debt but it's in the form of a convertible bond which can at Avacta' discretion continually be paid in shares. So do tell us the the realistic, if hypothetical, scenario in which Heights drags Avacta into administration?

There is absolutely no risk of that unless the science fails, unless the trials fail in the months and years ahead.

The ability to issue your way out of a tight spot is one of the biggest differences between the US market right now and UK.

When BTC started rallying early in 2024 a US miner in Argo's situation would have simply announced an At The Market placing for $50m and continually issued all the way down from 20p to 10p, whatever it took and now, today, would have options. Well they'd have been doing this for the past two years and would be very much alive, if not alive and well.

Here in the UK main market you just die a long drawn out death.

In just over a week Argo releases its May operational update and it will reveal just how steep the fall in revenue is - around $3.7m for the month. I suspect that will be a turning point.

'Where does the case take place? if in London I may attend.'

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Someone correct me if i'm wrong but I think it'll be in the Rolls Building in the City of London, as part of the Commercial and Admiralty Court. I'm also thinking of popping along one day, it's just a hop skip and jump off the train at Blackfriars.

Target based on Segilola operation alone with 5p more for each year of mine life added.

Forecast- 98k oz gold sold for 2024 at a price of $2084 with USD/Naira e.rate of 806 giving AISC of $1144/oz

Actual - price average $2195/oz ytd and rising, USD/Naira at 1486, could we see AISC fall to $1000/oz? Lower? All the extra margin translates in to pure cash due to the Nigerian jurisdiction five year tax holiday (ends 2026).

I'm expecting an increase in broker target to at least 35p but more likely 40p based on 2024 numbers and increased 2025 forecasts plus news on the mine life extension with Segun signalling a likely 2-3 years extension here taking that broker target to 50p-55p.

Douta and Lithium are Brucie Bonuses on top.

https://*************.net/strengthening-cashew-production-in-cote-divoire

It’s a myth that this is in anyway a priority for the government, the DHSC is in court all the time regarding feckless spending, I doubt Rishi is even aware of it.

The DHSC is the DHSC whoever is in charge, the same civil servants will be working there after the election as were before, barring the most senior positions so I don’t see any reason why this trial would be delayed because of the election.

There is simply absolutely no buzz despite the ginormous profits now being generated and to be revealed from q2 onwards.

It is incredible that POG is outpacing the THX share price but that’s the reality right now. Got to simply be patient and wait for the profits to catch the attention of more folk and hope Segun has a few ideas up his sleeve too to increase visibility and liquidity.

Deliver on two years MLE which is being signposted and release a positive pfs re Douta and this should be at 30p+ - let’s hope rationality kicks in eventually.

'What would you say the odds of Novacyt winning the case and claiming all damages and lost revenue Chris ?'

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I think, most importantly for holders, the odds of losing the case in full are low and so the downside risk at 65p is low. From there there's numerous outcomes pretty much all leading to a better situation than we have now due to the uncertainty being lifted although to varying degrees. So for fun let's say ~5-10% chance of losing outright and being bankrupted and maybe ~20% winning the case and claiming all damages and lost revenue and then most likely being somewhere in between with a modest amount of cash returned to NCYT.

No not a financial genius but fairly experienced when it comes to identifying small cap lifestyle companies and that is sadly what Argo has become and the most they can do is extend their survival slightly by issuing shares to naive investors through further placings.

That's undfair redinjun. For a start we've all said Argo has no future and won't be operating much past the halving... that is still the case. Chippas is looking backwards and focusing on the deleveraging that Argo have managed over the past eighteen month but that was because they had a flagship facility to sell, brand new rigs, a data centre and a few placings. They don't have anything now to sell and they are burning significant cash month on month from this point forward so there isn't any more deleveraging that can be achieved besides the odd small placing they might pull off (although that will be spoken for immediately due to cash burn). The hosting agreements ends at the end of the year and even if they were somehow going still they'll need to start replacing rigs just to maintain the same loss making hash rate.

Chippas did a good job of avoiding broaching the subject of what happens going forward because the bottom line DRAMATICALLY changes now post halving, from ebitda positive at least to steeply negative. But I watched just in case he was going to try to create a narrative that could be sold to the market but there wasn't anything apart from continue with current plan.

'If they win the case I see £2- £3 maximum .

If they lose this could go to pennies quite easily .'

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Absolutely. Odds most of us are happy with. Fortunately this is bb isn't run by a load of rampers and so the risks are regularly shared with no poor suckers getting dragged in without the knowledge that a bad result from the dispute would see if not a total wipeout a significant slash in value.

This has been a brilliant forum for discussion over the past few weeks since Poidster returned and we got hold of the summary document from the pre trial hearing with all points of view shared maturely.

' 9 months ago he said we were 1 year away from those US specialist investors looking in'

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I've run the maths... so we're now 3 months away from those US specialist investors looking in? Exciting stuff!

For those interested I watched the Imc and q&a and it was 22 mins of my life I won’t get back.

No strategy to get out of this, lots of stupid questions asked such as how Argo are going to get back to growth etc