Member Info for HarChris

20th Feb - 6100-6500T target announced for April-June, reiterated in early April - actual 2371T

8th August - 'expects to reach c.50% capacity utilisation in the current quarter and c.75% in Q3 FY24' also 'The Company remains focussed on reaching monthly production and sales minimum target of 2,000 tons and expects to achieve this important milestone in Q3 FY24 having focused this year on:'

Q2 actual 2130T

19th Oct, lesson learnt, new target for H2: 'In H2 FY 24, the Company estimates base case production of 7,500 tons though working towards reaching 10,000 tons, given the limitations of head grade. '

Actual... wait for it... 2600T

Of course none of this is the CEOs fault though, he isn't expected to correctly understand his company's capital position throughout the year and raise when he can just, no of course not, it's normal to instead just wait on tax rebates from one of the poorest countries in the world, it's normal to sit tight for that, it'll come, imminently. No none of it is his fault, all these missed targets are totally out of his control, the NEDs resigning all have an agenda, the broker has an agenda. Poor Shishir is doing absolutely everything right time and time again and luck just isn't on his side.

But it's okay, the lenders understand this so are going to give him the capital he's after. I mean, this was in the works on March 7th Corporate Update. And the company is down to virtually no money but of course it's coming, and on good terms to Shishir. They know he's been unlucky and has everyone unfairly against him. They want his company, they are using all these misfortunes and twisting them into some warped reality when really the company is absolutely thriving and has investors queuing up to get involved in the business. Money will come, debt at low interest rates, equity at significant premiums, it's all coming we just need to be a bit more patient.

... and breathe. Rant over, i'm too exasperated and flabbergasted by the frankly weird defence of a ceo that has absolutely tanked everyone's investment through sheer incompetence.

And herein lies the issue. There is absolutely no doubting the fact that Tirupati was deemed an extremely exciting prospect upon listing and right up to mid 2023. Initial interest focused around the downstream and specialist graphene production but even as that failed to come to fruition the sheer numbers that Shishir was projecting this time last year were eye-watering. Here's the rns from just over one year ago, scroll to 'guidance of production'

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/tg-commences-production-at-18000tpa-plant-q1nv3odeg52zfcg.html

Of course you're going to be able to raise funds when you are projecting big profit imminently, in the very nearing term. Back last year Shishir was projecting production of over 2000Tpm with cheap and swift plans to expand rapidly against a break even production level of 1100-1200Tpm, of course that was going to attract investment.

The question is has his ability to attract investment now faded away due to such a chasm between what was being touted and what actually came to pass? That 2000Tpm and beyond has ended up more like 400Tpm and probably falling due to lack of cash to actually operate... In just one year they've gone from a near term highly profitable miner to needing £1m just to pay their staff and cover a CLN coupon. That is mismanagement and why it doesn't matter what he claims at this point, the chances of delivering on those claims is low and largely out of his hands now.

The main thing the new group have going for them is that they don't come with a litany of false promises and amateurish delivery. It's that baggage that makes TGR uninvestable under current management.

Trust me I’m doing my best to avoid commenting on here because I know it’s not nice to have sold out and still be posting but most of my posts are in response to direct messages to me.

As for regretting selling out… no definitely not. Without a change in management I am as near as certain TGR ends up in administration within twelve months.

My guess is Chippas is having another baby? Maybe Peter Wall is back in a different capacity coaching the Argo football team?! Am I close?!

It's hard not to be mightily frustrated and somewhat outraged reading lines such as ''they supplied £4.5Bn of tests that the US FDA suggested be 'destroyed by placing them in the trash'' at the same time as the DHSC goes to town trying to bankrupt Novacyt on very tenuous grounds to recover a mere fraction of what they tossed into the Innova bonfire.

Not really no but I have a good few friends invested here who are sticking it out to the death and I'm fairly convinced that the company as it stands is heading for failure.

Even if the new group succeeds I wouldn't rush to reinvest because Shishir has driven the company to the brink of administration and it will be a real challenge to turnaround as well as require a significant amount of capital.

Shishir couldn't even guarantee meeting the July CLN coupon yesterday which would mean almost certainly being dragged into administration and yet some carry on cheerleading for him - it's madness.

Sure it's not helped but I don't think it matters too much because, as you say, the judge here seems sensible:

'Even without that concern, Mr. Twigger has taken me to e-mails relied upon by the experts to reach certain factual conclusions, which are then relied upon as supporting their views on robustness. He clearly has an arguable case that he can put to Dr. Huggett that the interpretation of these e-mails is wrong, and Dr. Huggett may be invited to express his views on an alternative basis.'

I think this misjudgement could have led to the summary judgement being accepted and it being game over for us but since it was rejected then there's now the full trial for the correct information, facts and Twigger's persuasion to win out.

I don't feel comfortable holding through this current turmoil and certainly won't be buying back in if the company remains in the hands of the Shishir, Puruvi and Alastair. I wouldn't care if it was 2p I personally see little chance of the company surviving the next twelve months with the status quo so any price would be too high for me.

I'd take a chance on new management and at least buy back some of my position, so yeah waiting to see the result of the upcoming vote.

I don't get the conspiracy? Optiva tends to only post the positive stuff on their twitter rather than resignations. Christian is obviously in communication with the proposed directors, just as he is with Shishir as well and has come to the decision to side with the proposed directors in the interest of their remaining holding.

I assume Christian forwarded the resignation letter to the FT group and gave them his blessing to share it.

There's nothing inconsistent here - the resignation letter is very clear on the reasons Optiva has resigned, it has nothing to do with the operations in Madagascar.

I’m in Migi now but that’s it - high risk high reward!

Well the contract law in question isn't black and white and therefore comes down to interpretation of the judge. If you pull a massive contract like this in the middle of the fourteen weeks contract period having used thousands of the tests already and then fail to properly engage with the contract partner to rectify issues then you better be able to rigorously and unquestionably prove that the kits / reagents were faulty.

That doesn't seem to be the case here.

''the amount raised was for about 12 months or so. It strenthed the balance sheet only inas much it kept them solvent. (which is a stronger position, so its all about interpretation.)''

________________

£31.1m is not an additional 12 months or so, it's an additional ~22 months at current cash burn.

Yes we'll likely see cash burn rise a little through p2 and additional pipeline work, maybe the next Heights payment covered with cash but it's still a clear 18 months increased runway with all that time for an LD to land / Dx to be sold.

Realistically it's likely 24 months+

Two weeks til the May update that reveals a steep fall in revs to ~$3.5m ($4m poss if BTC keeps rising). Those looking to exit could really do with a big BTC rally in this upcoming fortnight!

It's in the UKEF mission statement: https://www.ukexportfinance.gov.uk/about-us/#:~:text=We%20advance%20prosperity%20by%20ensuring,net%20cost%20to%20the%20taxpayer.

It's certainly true that no creditor with a remit to maximise profits would be lending to Harl at this stage but there's a large government contract that's in play here, hence there's a rationale to support Harl and give them the opportunity to see out the FSS contract and let JW and team deliver what they believe they can deliver and with it provide thousands of skilled jobs to far reaching places across GB and NI.

It's an economic risk for sure but for british labour policy as a whole there's considerable downsides to just leaving Harl to go under.

I would be a lot more worried about this dispute if it was in regard to the April contract. Obviously at the start of the pandemic in a rush some i's might not have been dotted and some t's might not have been crossed but by late September 2020 I'm confident that if one of the sides hasn't done their due diligence properly, if one side was still acting in panic mode then it's the haphazard DHSC rather than a reputable diagnostics business that will have been eyeing up this contract for months.

It is highly unlikely that binning Novacyt's tests and sourcing elsewhere from China was going to benefit public health vs engaging with Novacyt and implementing their recommended changes.

I don't think anyone is in doubt that the DHSCs actions were both political and economical, not health related.

For me there has to be a level of common sense applied too rather than hard, technical contract law. This is an important paragraph for me:

'Most particularly, towards the end of the joint statement, they said this:

"However, the technical failure rate of the TVG study data indicated a significant problem with the method's robustness. The conclusion of the findings from the seven laboratories are further supported by e-mails from Novacyt (PD) (both internally and to NHS laboratories) illustrating steps to rectify what they admit was an issue due to run failures (namely how the optimiser was dispensed and the revoking of software update v 2.7 fast cycling protocol with 2.10.01). This suggests the exsig COVID-19 Direct was not working as intended and that the IFU protocol and software updates were more to blame than the NHS laboratory staff, who were running other diagnostic tests on a routine basis. However, it is not clear if the potential improvements were implemented by all the NHS laboratories."

Surely the judge must decide whether they think for such a large contract and in such circumstances that an attempt to troubleshoot issues should be made before a contract is pulled? I'm sure there's a lot of evidence through the emails that Novacyt attempted to work with the DHSC to solve the issues but the DHSC already had their eye on other tests at that point so had no interest in properly engaging.

I am saying that all that was agreed by the experts is that the tests failed at an unacceptable rate. They did. Hence my example. In my example the home tests would have failed at an unacceptable rate too yet it's quite clearly not a breach of contract in that example.

So I'm not worrying that the experts agreed on that particular fact, for our expert to deny that reality given the data would not be a good look.

That comment right there Barry is the problem in a nutshell.

Shishir has always had the passion and desire to make TGR a success but this is a repetitive cycle. We've learnt over time that passion wasn't the issue, it was competence. He used the same tactics all the way from from 40p in mid 2023 to 4p, reassuring shareholders via email that he will turn this around, meeting any shareholder in London face to face that arranged a sit down. Every time he has exuded the same passion and slowly the whole building has crumbled to rubble and still he says the same things.

I've no doubt that Shishir is well meaning but he's also almost certainly incapable of getting out of this current mess. Are the new group capable of it? Probably not also, this is a horrible market to be so cash constrained in, so there's few good options here unfortunately but at least with change there's a chance, there's a chance for the capital markets to open up to more credible business people, there's another shot.

If the resolution is rejected i suspect the group's holdings will be sold off with it and possibly Optiva's too now, compounding the problems further.