Member Info for HarChris

You strike me as someone that spent all their time at the uni debating society picking the extreme side and finding great enjoyment in challenging themselves to come up with some sort of coherent counter position. Today you've dug in deeper than you ever have to the point of stretching things far beyond reality.

How about this... AIM companies, due to their lack of institutional backing, very rarely manage to remove a long standing founder and CEO without failure having become so egregious that their position is deemed untenable. That's what we're essentially dealing with here, a platform with such massive potential that a discounted placing, even in this environment, is simply so inexcusable that he was forced out. In addition to lacking the necessary business skills to prepare Avacta for a BP TO in the years ahead.

I'm sure you understand why it has been handled the way it has and why a lack of commentary is the most beneficial path forward but of course there's nothing like silence as an excuse to spin your own yarn,

'I agree, even if it's not as effective as standard Dox if it can be given in a weaker/frailer and more ill patient with perhaps co morbidities or pre existing cardiac disease it'll find a place and a market.'

So do you agree that it's looking extremely positive? We have what's looking like a worst case scenario as you described above and a best case scenario (maybe via 2 week dosing) of a far safer AND more effective chemo.

That may well be true but what you’re getting with Avacta at this stage is everything you could ask for - impeccable safety and strong *signs* of efficacy as seen by the tumour reductions.

There’s already clear evidence that AVA6000 will vastly reduce side effects so even a small improvement in efficacy and what we have here is a blockbuster drug.

Some of you won't admit it because the grudge and dislike is too deep and embedded but when a perma bear / largely negative poster switches to bullish / positive with what is a reasonable argument to back it up that's good for all of us Avacta holders.

Still, there should be enough cash to make it to the next accounts in April which will bring all this to the fore and spell out the situation in black and white (cash burn will be impossible to deny), in the meantime the average punter will simply buy or sell based on BTC price movements with probably a slightly weight to the downside. And there's where the small headroom is for a potential trade.

So if btc pumps before the interims in August the Argo price will still likely be higher than it is today, despite being so close to the edge now and with any pump almost certainly being followed up by a survival extending placing.

If there was ever a time to recognise results as backwards looking and therefore not representative of the state of business it’s the quarter before a halving. Especially over a month after that halving has started with no discernible change in BTC price or difficulty.

As for your point about fundamentals not mattering re crypto related stocks that’s certainly true when cashed up, it’s not when you’re soon to need refinancing with no investment case to put forward in what is a very tough market

Exactly, quite clearly illogical.

If Argo gets the luck it needs alongside a fair bit of dilution it’s possible they survive and in say twelve months time be bumbling along at ~10p so for there to be any value today given the unlikeliness of such an outcome you’d be wanting 1 or 2p entry.

There’s a risky punt to be had by risk lovers when this is rightfully priced to fail but now all that upside is already priced in!

Hear hear. Cashed up for ~ 20 months with all that time to increase the runway through Dx sale and/or LD alongside all the progress that has been made to date against a share price of 42p makes this, by far, a chance like no other to make life changing returns from a risk/reward perspective.

Yes the bungled financing reduces the final price slightly but nowhere near the discount that’s currently being factored in and on the plus side the bungled financing facilitated and expedited the ousting of a ceo that would not have been able to successfully maximise shareholder return here.

We’ll look back in twelve months and see this as the turning point.

Yeah it's strange Hexam, think some change in the hosting agreement perhaps?

If they had been able to maintain tighter cost controls then they might just have had a fighting chance with a BTC move beyond $100k, now as it is that won't cut it which means no BTC price will cut it (even $150k would simply mean difficulty rises to a point where they aren't profitable).

All about trying to suck in the naive now on any BTC price strength but i don't think there's too many of those that would support a business saving placing now.

There's a lot of dummies on these forums that post nothing but abuse and hot air but you're right up there in the top three of stupidity. To no longer be able to 'engage' with you is no skin off my nose, trust me!

Not woolly at all, clear and concise. This is as good an update as any of us could have asked for today. Three patients dosed in cohort 2, H2 timeline still on track, SOFIE tie up.

The plan will be mapped out and shared in detail at AGM next month.

There it is in black and white. $16.8m revs resulted in $3.8m ebitda, so Argo need ~$13m to break even at the ebitda level. Call it $12m for adjustments and lots of calculation leeway.

Revs per month definitely below $4m per month now post halving so no longer even profitable at ebitda.

Best guess is the $12m lasts til the end of Q3 as long as no big debt repayments in the meantime. Clock really ticking for BTC to go ballistic

Aaaaand breathe... what a great update before the long bank holiday weekend. Should all be feeling a lot more relaxed now!

Great to hear Poidster. We have a bit of a community here now and I like to think you’ll have a chance to make your money back like the rest of us that have continued buying many more shares sub £1.

I won’t post on here again for a while, I think I’ve got my points across by now. Good luck, be interesting to see how this all plays out :)

Sorry Akhtar I was responding to the specific point which I’ve seen raised time and time again arguing that Shishir has simply been unlucky / this could all be explained by lack of working capital and the situation was out of his hands. That’s just evidently nonsense.

I don’t think all that much of the TG representatives (well Isabel seems credible) but at least as a team they might make a fist of this.

You keep bringing it back to share price and saying how everyone focuses too much on the share price decline, I’m not. I’m saying that he consistently wildly missed targets again and again to a degree I’ve never seen before. We’re talking quarter after quarter after quarter for an entire year. We’re talking missed production targets of over 50% with half the quarter already passed!

I follow three of those four companies you just mentioned quite closely and for sure none of them have done well but the mismanagement at TGR is on another level , imo (as someone that can compare).

And I’m also confident that when graphite prices pick up they will be well placed to benefit whilst TGR is at threat of even existing by that point.

Any of you guys got any questions for the investor meet tomorrow? If so share them on here and i'll post them as i'll be tuning in (serious ones only! haha )

The opposite in fact. Gamblers never accept losses, they bet til they are back in the green or wiped out. In terms of shares they double down until they are back to break even or their money goes to zero. They struggle to accept that it's anythng but bad luck that they are down.

I sold for a hefty loss and take full responsibility for it. It didn't help that I had constant correspondence with Shishir reassuring me that we were close to a turning point at every juncture but it was my money and my instincts that let me down for too long. I should have been out at the first or second red flag, not the ninth or tenth.

They’d also have to wade through all the garbage too!