Member Info for HarChris

Ps I might not have understood fully what the data was meant to be showing. Could one of you explain? I'm interested to hear of conflicting interests of Hemant if they can be shown... I don't think I was aware of Poddar Global Resources previously (just how many businesses do Shishir and Hemant own?!)

Not that I particularly care about all the Pranagraf stuff personally... you'll notice I've never mentioned it in my criticism.

The operational failure of the past twelve months is what I focus on.

I'm absolutely certain if something like this was shared by the requisition group there would be all manner of doubting the authenticity. I mean how hard is it to change a few numbers on a spreadsheet and screenshot it and pass it on to one of the shareholders you are in contact with?

Akhtar could you share the associated file rather than a cropped screenshot?

Larry, re your tweet I saw earlier... Investor Meet Company is a really good platform. If you haven't submitted your questions already you will be able to at the start of the meeting and your question should get answered as long as it passes the moderator. So yeah either make sure you're logged in at around 11am and submit them during the webinar or if not post them on here and i'll submit them for you tomorrow.

The statement includes an error either way so requires clarification via RNS. For what you say to be true it means administrative expensive have reduced from £300k a month average just a year ago to £50k a month, it does seem unlikely considering there's been no revenue growth, in fact year on year revenue decline.

Yeah it's technically possible the way it's written but is it realistic? They managed to bring down those costs considerably as it is but to halve them again immediately vis a vis H1 going into H2 seems unlikely?

A chunk of those costs are management wages so it would mean they've totally slashed their own wages, you'd think they'd make a point of that if they had?

No problem - it's a glaring and misleading error on management's part.

I'm afraid it's definitely not 12 months. So you have this:

'In response to these performance challenges and to preserve cash, the Company implemented cost reduction measures, reducing costs by 66% from £1.82m up to February 2023 to £627.07k up to February 2024.'

Now that makes it sound like those numbers are for 12 months, Feb to Feb but they aren't. Scroll to the 'Condensed Statement of Comprehensive Income' and you'll see both the above numbers are 'Six months to Feb 2023' and 'Six months to Feb 2024'

Tomorrow should be interesting - first the full year results with hopefully something positive in the 'post-period highlights' section and then we have the IMC webinar and Q&A with Lyn and Steve.

This is actually what it says: 'Going forward, we have successfully reduced our cash burn rate by a third, from £150k per month to average £50k per month.'

For a start that would be two thirds but from the previous line and in the income statement they are getting this figure from the £627k admin costs (i.e 50k x 12) but those costs are actually for just six months... they have actually reduced their cash burn from 150k per month to 100k per month, it's an error. So from the above cash burn HAS reduced by a third but that actually makes it 100k per month.

£1m cash gives them ~10 months from the end of February not 20 months, so the end of 2024 before refinancing.

I disagree. They have been talking about this VAT rebate and the issues around the election since mid 2023. The problem is that they left themselves entirely dependent on something that’s out of their hands, out of their control yet acted like they were certain on the outcome through the use of the term ‘imminent’ - amateurish to say the least.

In isolation it’s not that big of a deal but that’s why I list all the errors, all the missed timelines, all the failed promises. Because that gives you the bigger picture of what a total embarrassment this management team has been and how odd it is that some refuse to entertain that idea.

Until very recently they were still targeting 400000tpa before the end of this decade, by 2029. H2 run rate revealed barely 4000tpa, barely 1% of the target Shishir repeated in interview after interview

Q2 with the extra 1000-1500 oz per month drawn down from circuit is going to blow the bloody doors off. 25k oz sold at $2300/oz?! Revenue $58m vs $33.3m in q1? It’s not out of the question.

Those q2 results, first in July and then the financial results in August are going to be a major turning point in SP if it hasn’t come before.

It’s not as if Shishir’s word is gospel. He claimed they won’t dilute with share price so low, at 30p, and then was forced to at 11p. How long has debt financing supposedly been close? How does the vat rebate go from ‘imminent’ to unknown due to Madagascan budget constraints? Wouldn’t he have known that after talking about and being in discussions about the VAT since mid 2023?

What’s the big mystery? There are only ever a couple of financing options for a company like TGR, dilution via equity, deferred dilution via CLNs or debt financing. They will have to be in charge to give detailed plans. For example is the $2m from Mad gov. actually close or not? Are lenders willing to invest given a more credible executive team?

It’s impossible to refinance the company before you have control of the company and claiming otherwise would be disingenuous.

It has to or there won't be any primary producers left. Maybe the Glencore Rhovan mine being shut will help boost prices further.

Largo reported a headline $13m loss for Q1. Dig a bit deeper and you see that the numbers were vastly bolstered thanks to having a large stockpile to sell. Stripping out the stockpile the loss for the quarter was ~$28m!

A particularly difficult quarter due to kiln refractory being replaced but does show just how tough it is for primary producers.

'It’s a strong company with lots on the ground'

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Well a year ago we thought production capacity was 30ktpa, then a month ago we were informed it's now 20ktpa and then yesterday Hemant argues it's actually 15ktpa, max. The most the mine has ever produced is 2370t in a quarter which comes out at less than 10ktpa so nobody really knows?

There are no absolutely certainties in pharma so if your main argument against Avacta is that AVA6000 success isn't 100% then that's pretty weak to be honest.

It's not proven to work yet but it's as derisked as you could ask for at this stage and the odds of it being proved in the not too distant future are extremely high - so you're perfectly welcome to wait for unequivocal proof in the efficacy study whilst the rest of us will take our chances and load up at such a depressed SP with what it is unusually low risk for a biotech research company at this stage.

No harm in looking for the positives but vanadium prices are still very deflated. Take the US, which is the most important market for BMN. FeV has ranged from ~$26.5/kgV to $35/kgV over the past 12 months and right now it's ~$28.5/kgV. So not the bottom but not much above. Similar story for Europe.

Hemant is joint owner of the concert party, Tirupati Carbons and Chemicals, alongside Shishir. There's no ulterior motive, he has more skin in the game than absolutely anyone bar Shishir and he's seeing his investment, the company he co founded, on the path to bankruptcy.

But there is absolutely nothing that could change some people's minds here. Puruvi and Alastair could quit tomorrow and say that Shishir is a tyrannical monster and some on here would go 'ahhhh they've been captured by FT too! Dark forces at play once again!'