Member Info for HarChris

RSG is a good company but worth pointing out that they are valued at £530m mcap at ~340k oz production

I don't see why you therefore think SRB isn't attractive at £44m mcap and 38k ounces this year?

SRB is growing too with hopes of 60k next year and 100k all going well with the license.

Resolute is the safer play, SRB has far more potential upside.

Sending love and well wishes to you BT, you seem angry and upset. Also I hope your HUM investment comes good 👍

Just demonstrating how much this gold price derisks the investment - the upside becomes even greater obviously but arguably even more importantly it cushions against the downside considerably.

You’re mixing two things up because you don’t follow the story here. The small pullback (still 81% up over six months) is due to concerns re failing to agree full licence at Coringa - if so as has been pointed out Coringa development would be put on hold and there would instead be 2 and a half years of TL mining ~130k oz total + a couple more years just with Palito.

SRB is already net cash positive with virtually no debt so could easily see $100m+ FCF on that first 130k Oz and more from just Palio albeit too far out to project.

Worst (and unlikely) case assuming POG plays ball (which all us gold enthusiasts expect) would mean dividends far exceeding current mcap.

Certainly true RB but Mike's been on a charm offensive for months now attempting to promote and bring more attention to SRB and shore up the share price - that doesn't mean that an SHG-like takeover isn't possible in the future but it certainly suggests there's nothing in the works at the moment.

Eric at Shanta started playing down many the positive potential of SHG around six months before the TO attempt was announced.

I bought Gamestop yesterday for the first time ever at $28 but risk averse me sold it before close at $32 for a £300 profit.

It's opening at $73 as things stand !

I meant two and a half years, not months, sorry.

Sure, little progress made in the past few weeks, is that such a disaster?

As things stand they at least have over 2 and half months on the trial licence as a worst case scenario, if they focused on cash accumulation over that time they will be sitting on more net cash than the current market cap by some distance so even if the full licence wasn't granted they'd have optionality and deserve a valuation a little higher than what it is currently still.

I's appreciate the fall if already at £80m mcap but not at £50m

Its priced to need to raise again in ~6-9 months down the road with $30m of debt and, likely, still no profitability in sight.

In the meantime there's still a fair bit of time to pump it higher before the next lot of results deflate it again.

Since the share price had risen from 55p over the past month (44p if you go back a few more weeks) to a high of 80p I challenged PI100 to save the daily 'omg this is tanking' and 'classic pump and dump' posts for when/if it retraces to 60p, in which case I'd agree he/she has a bit of a point.

But he/she's addiction to negativity got the better of them and they just had to move early on the moan and settle for 65p instead!

They burn cash either way, don't think downing tools and going into administration would just freeze things as they are. They owe interest on $105m of debt, staff at the plants will need to be kept on a retainer or otherwise the whole operation would take too much time and money to ramp back up again, the long overdue creditors would need to be paid, some modest maintenance work would need to be undertaken etc etc

Then there's this: ''Additionally, the Company is in discussions with Orion pursuant to which Orion has indicated, on a non-binding basis, that it will, subject to certain conditions (including completion of the Vanchem Disposal), provide further funding to the Group by matching the additional funds paid by SPR on a $ for $ basis up to a maximum of US$10 million. Further details are set out on paragraph 5 of this letter.''

Their major creditors ^^^ don't seem to think just eroding away in administration is the best chance of ever seeing their capital either.

The question that some seem to be asking or at least want explained by Craig is 'how does administration compare with this deal?' - Craig has stated/ implied numerous times in IMCs that administration would in most cases by the worst case scenario but has never specifically answered the above question.

That is totally wrong, at least when you compare what BMN looks like without it and what it looks like with it

Scenario 1 - no deal agreed. BMN is out of cash now and likely have halted operations already, especially as many creditors have balances that are 'long overdue' at Vanchem.

Scenario 2 - Deal. As part of the agreement $3m was received as an advance on May 3rd, a further $5m will be received at the end of May and a further $5m-$8m will be loaned as an advance to Vanchem to pay long overdue creditors and therefore keep the plant in operation - loans that BMN won't have to payback as part of this deal.

i think most would agree that there's a tangible difference between not operating and operating, even if the latter will lead to the former in time, minus 50% Vanchem, if V doesn't recover.

Ha that might be the oddest banned word I've seen on here - can't right conspir acist!

i ain't no conspi****** but it is odd that my post with double digit recommends challenging the notion that 'there isn't any growth' got removed but the moany baseless post i was replying to remains?!

Well I've just added under 58p, unless there's bad news we don't know this drop seems senseless with POG at $2350/oz

Very weird rns, it’s all news that has already been released via rns (20th March and a few weeks ago).

Are they trying (badly) to game the SP?

Zan, Snap!

Yeah although it's all been complicated by the lack of cash in the business and the precariousness it leaves it in with bills to pay and debt maturity looming - talk might come from a genuine place but how do you attract a reputable CFO to a business that can't pay you and can only offer shares for the time being, shares that be heavily diluted in time? Do independent NEDs want to come in and be stuck in the middle of a battle to gain control of the company between an incumbent and a rival party?

It's why I've sold out for now. On the one hand there are lots of reasons to be sceptical of this newly formed group and I thought the written responses by TGR management yesterday were actually quite solid and convincing but on the other the performance from the company has been so staggeringly poor this past year that it's highly unlikely that there's going to be any chance of a meaningful turnaround with the status quo - after all access to capital is essential now and it seems so unlikely that a TGR run by Shishir, Puruvi and Alastair is going to convince lenders to part with their cash now without significant on the ground improvement being seen first (and that needs cash, so a catch 22).

This really is an impasse at this point.