Member Info for HarChris

I've not seen him making many right calls of late however with over 20k followers dedicated to investing and trading it's a positive to have him getting excited over ARCM and has made it only one of his two long term investments:

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1790273048924332068

Not necessarily true at all. More likely ONDO management misjudged it that's all. Share price had briefly touched 40p a few months before and 30p in the run up to the placing so 20.5p probably seemed dilutive at the time.

At the very least if that was the case they'd have certainly been able to raise considerably more at some price between the 20.5p placing price and today's 14p.

Anyway as predicted the SP is holding up well, I don't think 14p will become available on the open market.

As things stand it looks like V in US is still at/around the 12 month lows but in Europe and China it's off the bottom and showing signs of potentially heading towards $30/kgV.

'On V prices. We are getting close to the 360 day 0%, which is where we want to be. When, if, this turns green, hopefully within the next couple of months, Vametco can start making us money again.'

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All the 360 day chart is doing is comparing against the same point exactly one year bfeore. In 2023 V peaked in late March then fell sharply to a new lower level through May to August and then fell again to a new lower level in September and then again in December. So as the year goes on that 360 day chart will highly likely show some up as green but it will eventually this year be comparing not against a time when V was $40/kgV (March), not $32/kgV (May through August) but when it was $25/kgV.

So

It seemed plainly obvious that £1.08m wasn't going to go very far, a bit of a wasted opportunity to really make the most of the elevated share price in late 2023.

However despite the fact that dilution this time around is much greater 14p really isn't a bad result in this market - as someone on the sidelines I'm not sure there will be an entry as low as that on the open market.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_pgfaOqsLQ

Similar to previous interviews but always good to get a reiteration of guidance (95k-100k Oz) as another month passes.

Segun makes the point that with projection of $300m FCF to be generated over the next three years with all debt being paid down this year then as long as POG remains at this sort of level THX is trading at a significant discount currently even if none of the forthcoming projects - extension of mine life at Segilola, development of Douta and Lithium - came to fruition, something that is highly unlikely to occur.

This year will be the first time THX is fully deleveraged so the optionality that such cash generation will bring is yet to be fully understood.

The point I'm making is a company like STX would not want to be raising debt until profitability was in sight but the recent poor performance and subsequent share price erosion has given them little choice... and not just once but a second lot of debt on top.

This now makes the risk of failure sky high.

As recently as July 2023 STX forecast becoming cash flow positive without a penny of debt to their name in 2024.

The likes of myself and others on here who understand just how poor recent results are know this is unlikely but now, at best (at least hpyothetically), they're looking at reaching a cash flow positive position in late 2025 with $30m of debt on the books.

Anything but absolutely perfect execution from here and they'll be needing to raise and since they've taken on so much debt in the past eight months that option will be off the table so a highly dilutive raise will be what comes.

This share is not cheap, its highly risky and speculative from here.

No not in a nutshell, Vametco isn't being sold. I assume you mean Vanchem the few times you wrote Vametco in your post?

But yeah agree otherwise. It was the same in December, a credible plan for the next twelve months to turn around the company but backed into such a tight spot that anything not going their way would cause major distress - the cost of SPR delaying payment, Acacia withholding funds and vanadium price sinking lower shrunk that cash runway to just four months.

This deal seems the only option but medium term survival is far from guaranteed.

Good point re efficient machines but this only really applies to entities with cash that have been able to renew their fleet in recent years with the most high tech rigs despite the downturn and now halving.

For the likes of Argo and I suspect the majority of artisanal miners? this won’t apply.

TGR will likely need to raise a good few times what they did in the Jan placing at a share price a third of what it was just to cover the July coupon, pay all the long overdue remuneration owed to staff, recruit a CFO and to get back into fully operation. That could be very heavy dilution to get back operating on an even keel.

I don't particularly trust this new group either but to act like they're largely to blame for the current mess is ludicrous, the mismanagement from Shishir is on another level.

It's an exaggeration as BTC didn't come close to averaging $60k in March 2021 but it still shows just how much mining power is now needed to generate the same revenue as the highs of 2021 - I'm surprised hash isn't falling considerably already but I guess give it another month or too and it'll probably gather pace, bitcoin being equal.

What's the assumption here? That difficulty is going to retrace considerably unless BTC starts rising?

It's amazing to think that the first time BTC broke $60k in March 2021 global hash was barely a quarter of what it is today, with double the rewards for minting one bitcoin so in other words, at $60k today vs $60k n March 2021 revenue being generated for miners is about 1/7th of what it was (adding a bit more back in for fees).

That's really bad and shows that you need seven times the hash to be generating the same revenues as $60k in March 2021.

If I was Greg i'd certainly be buying shares even if the outlook is far less sunny than I was letting on - director purchases right now would support the share price / likely drive it higher increasing the chances of pulling off a placing when they next need it and therefore increasing the chances of him retaining this supremely well paid and cushy £600k+ a year salary!

Are your figures based on a 30kt capacity plant Andii as it's already been downgraded to a 20kt capacity operation and has never produced anything more than 2370T in a quarter (equating to sub 10ktpa)?

There's no two ways around it they are in a pickle now, a right bind.

It's clear in the way they put the table of current assets vs current liabilities front and centre of those results that this is a major risk now. On paper it looks fine - £7.1m vs £3.8m - but as with most things TGR the reality is a lot worse.

TGR are totally dependent on receiving £2m from the Madagascan government which we now hear is due to 'national budget constraints'. It's a pretty worrying thing to be relying on a tax rebate from one of the ten poorest countries by GDP in the entire world... and then you have tax rebate also owed by Mozambique, also in the top 10 poorest countries in the world.

Cash burn has sky rocketed with at least £810k cash burn between mid Jan placing and March 31st and now we know they have £1.13m due to mature within twelve months.

TGR need to find significant cash just to continue operating, cash to employ a credible CFO and cash to cover the debt maturing otherwise they are relying on the Madagascan and Mozambique government to stay out of administration. All that against a £5.5m market cap.

Segun has confirmed many times that the five year tax exemption applies with three more of those years still to come - it's in many of the THX documents including the slideshow on Segilola: 'Fiscal incentives include 5 year tax holiday and duties exemptions'

In the recent Investor Meet Segun made the point that even if there's no increased mine life at Segilola (which isn't going to be the case) there's still 3 years and 300k ounces to be produced at an AISC of around $1000 so at a gold price of just $2000/oz that's $300m of free cash flow to be seen.

Now imagine it averages $2400/oz over the next three years, that's ~$420m free cash flow without finding another ounce at Segilola - the numbers are staggering against a $118m market cap. So much could go wrong to still end up with more cash than market cap, and if everything goes right (MLE can be as much as seven years, Douta mine to be developed, Lithium exploration) well let's start talking blue sky.

Completely agree. All is not lost here just yet, if improvement were to be seen from this point forward even if further funding was needed in early-mid 2025 it would be well supported at a valuation higher than the current one but the question is, how likely is that improvement to come? And it really needs to be a significant improvement with prescriptions back on a 30%+ QoQ growth trajectory.

They've bought themselves a few quarters more time but they are very much in the last chance saloon territory now otherwise a change in management is inevitable and heavy dilution to get back on track.

I'd rather watch from the sidelines and enter at a higher level if that significant progress is seen as I think it's unlikely under this current management.

I suspect NCYT are too close to the dispute resolution to be actively pursuing m&a however I'm sure Lyn has at least half an eye on developments at Genedrive and if that funding falls through / GDR end up in the same place six months further down the line re cash but with NICE approval progress (expected July) they'll be a potential target.

If you can't see that that update was about as poor as it could possibly be given what we already know then there's no helping you.

Point 1 - how on earth were the sales incredible? We already knew H1 revenue was ~£3.15m (4785 x £658) so the second half of the year, what was unknown, brought in ~£1.75m. Incredible?

Point 2 - good news re stepping down as Executive Chairman agreed.

Point 3 - what was unknown was H2, H2 production was only a tad higher than what was being seen two years ago when installed capacity was only 12ktpa. Another way to look at it, q1 target at the start of the year was 6100T-6500T, they only just achieved that fo the entire year!

Point 4 - We've just seen nearly £1m burnt in six weeks 9(Jan 17th placing of £1.045), even if they eventually receive the £2.6m it barely covers one quarter's cash burn.

Point 5 - I was surprised by the big buys, one of the fairly big sells on open was mine, the last of my holding.

I've been vocal over the past week but I was always ready to support Shishir if he proved me wrong in this update but it was a hell of a lot worse than I expect and that's saying something.

Gl to holders, it's going to take some real skill to turn this around, to ever get back to the dizzy heights of even 20p.